城市空间增长与人口密度变化之间的关联关系

doi:10.11821/dlxb202004003

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the relationship between urban spatial growth and population density change is the basis of urban sustainable development research, which is of great significance for formulating effective land policies to promote urban compact development. The research selected 23 cities with a population of more than 1 million in China and Europe as the study areas. Based on the land use and population data in the study areas in 1990, 2000, and 2014, the research calculated the growth rate of sample urban space during each period, and the urban compactness index was then established to divide the urban spatial growth mode into compact type, maintenance type and spread type. The characteristics of spatial growth, population density change, and their relationship were further discussed. The results are as follows: (1) Population density decline is widespread in cities of China and Europe. Population density in cities of China is relatively high, and the rate of decline is fast, whereas population density in cities of Europe is relatively low and the rate of decline is slow. From 1990 to 2014, the growth rate of urban spatial radius in China was significantly higher than that in Europe. There is a strong negative correlation between the growth rate of urban space and the change rate of population density (with a Pearson's r of -0.693). (2) From 1990 to 2000, most of the sample cities' spatial growth mode were compact. From 2000 to 2014, most Chinese cities' spatial growth mode transformed into spread type and rate of population density decline increased. By contrast, European cities' spatial growth mode maintained to be compact or transformed into maintenance, and the rate of population density decline decreased. (3) Compact spatial growth does not necessarily lead to an increase in population density, but it tends to lower the rate of population density decline, relative to spread spatial growth. The comparative analysis of Chinese and European cities shows that if cities maintain a compact spatial growth mode, the rate of population density will be lowered. If cities' spatial growth mode transforms from compact to spread, it will intensify the decline of urban population density over time.

Key words: urban spatial growth, population density, inverse S-shaped function, China, Europe

ZHAO Rui, JIAO Limin, XU Gang, XU Zhibang, DONG Ting. The relationship between urban spatial growth and population density change[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(4): 695-707.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

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Tab. 1

The parameters of fitted inverse S-shaped functions in 23 sample cities

城市	1990年				2000年				2014年
城市	ɑ	c	D	R²	ɑ	c	D	R²	ɑ	c	D	R²
北京	4.578	0.116	25.98	0.995	5.336	0.152	29.06	0.994	4.663	0.259	35.55	0.988
上海	1.791	0.117	25.17	0.966	2.784	0.111	44.57	0.984	4.259	0.086	64.51	0.990
广州	1.561	0.047	8.51	0.980	1.512	0.133	22.14	0.956	1.453	0.248	30.43	0.965
天津	3.828	0.067	15.59	0.995	3.850	0.076	16.93	0.994	3.554	0.247	23.82	0.990
成都	3.403	0.022	11.70	0.996	5.615	0.080	18.58	0.995	3.922	0.159	29.78	0.976
常州	4.191	0.047	7.49	0.999	5.039	0.134	13.13	0.997	4.708	0.261	18.05	0.995
郑州	4.202	0.087	12.14	0.995	5.965	0.134	15.26	0.996	4.263	0.172	27.25	0.991
济南	3.852	0.101	13.56	0.993	3.760	0.126	15.36	0.992	3.465	0.171	19.15	0.994
唐山	2.613	0.113	8.00	0.979	3.115	0.148	9.42	0.976	2.737	0.259	12.18	0.967
海口	1.935	0.041	5.10	0.970	2.344	-0.181	9.06	0.965	3.236	-1.015	18.19	0.956
伦敦	2.652	0.047	35.22	0.983	2.996	0.092	37.29	0.984	3.319	0.113	38.25	0.986
巴黎	2.980	0.091	33.89	0.989	3.880	0.157	36.29	0.991	4.436	0.246	37.92	0.990
柏林	2.190	0.053	14.78	0.996	2.571	0.041	20.85	0.998	2.716	0.098	22.76	0.997
莫斯科	2.231	0.124	24.32	0.987	2.631	0.172	28.20	0.987	2.537	0.212	30.04	0.981
马德里	3.395	0.070	12.93	0.989	3.161	0.094	14.89	0.988	3.057	0.134	18.27	0.985
维也纳	2.742	0.054	12.95	0.997	3.105	0.069	16.39	0.998	3.403	0.088	17.41	0.997
米兰	2.851	0.155	14.19	0.957	2.846	0.202	15.52	0.956	2.854	0.279	19.28	0.955
华沙	1.950	0.055	12.38	0.978	2.408	0.081	15.13	0.983	2.662	0.125	17.89	0.981
圣彼得堡	3.513	0.083	21.38	0.987	3.623	0.122	22.01	0.985	3.658	0.149	24.34	0.987
布达佩斯	3.218	0.098	15.74	0.983	3.266	0.116	16.01	0.981	3.334	0.183	17.82	0.971
曼彻斯特	2.092	0.004	19.92	0.973	2.205	0.033	21.41	0.975	2.248	0.017	22.20	0.975
谢菲尔德	2.551	0.067	10.30	0.987	2.733	0.078	10.80	0.986	2.749	0.081	10.91	0.987
安特卫普	1.944	0.106	10.39	0.974	1.953	0.151	10.14	0.971	2.102	0.191	10.28	0.968

Tab. 1

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The relationship between urban spatial growth and population density change

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