基于个体移动轨迹的多中心城市引力模型验证

doi:10.11821/dlxb202002005

Abstract

Abstract:

Due to the lack of empirical studies of scale variables and distance exponents, the effective application of the gravity model in urban study is challenging. With the development of multi-centralized Chinese cities, the gravity model must be validated because several relevant external conditions have changed. The purpose of this study is to validate Huff's Gravity Model using an individual mobile trajectory of mobile communication user in 2015. We follow Huff's two-step validation method: variable validation and parameter correction. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, attractions of commercial and employment centres conform to the law of the gravity model in which the attraction is proportional to the scale of a centre and inversely proportional to the distance from a centre. Second, in the spatial scale of Shanghai central city with spatial units in a 200-m grid, the mean distance exponent for commercial centres is 2.5 and that for employment centres is 3.0. The distance decay for commuting is greater than that for shopping trips, which means commuting is more sensitive to distance. Third, the gravity model can be used to predict the influence areas of adjusted commercial and employment centres based on validated variables and corrected parameters. Our results indicate that the prediction accuracies can reach 78.5% and 71.9% for the commercial and employment centres, respectively. The prediction accuracy for employment centres is slightly lower. This is because the attraction of employment centres is influenced not only by distance but also by factors such as family and housing prices, which will affect the prediction results. Lastly, in this study, we verify the spatial stratified heterogeneity of distance decay and determine that the distance exponent is not a unique constant because it has different values in different areas. Factors such as accessibility, distance to each centre, distance to a subway station and population density will affect distance decay.

Key words: gravity model, multi-centre, model validation, distance decay, spatial stratified heterogeneity, individual mobile trajectory

DING Liang, NIU Xinyi, SONG Xiaodong. Validating gravity model in multi-centre city: A study based on individual mobile trajectory[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(2): 268-285.

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商业中心	实测值	模拟值	商业中心	实测值	模拟值	商业中心	实测值	模拟值	商业中心	模拟值
大宁	0.32	0.34	环球港	0.04	0.04	四川北路	0.02	0.02	七宝	0.00
不夜城	0.17	0.04	中山公园	0.03	0.03	徐家汇	0.02	0.04	张杨路	0.01
南京西路	0.12	0.11	淮海中路	0.03	0.02	中环	0.01	0.01	打浦桥	0.01
虹口龙之梦	0.05	0.08	长寿	0.03	0.03	陆家嘴	0.01	0.01	南方	0.00
五角场	0.05	0.04	大华	0.03	0.03	淮海路	0.01	0.02	莘庄	0.00
南京东路外滩	0.04	0.10	龙阳路	0.02	0.01	天山	0.01	0.00	豫园	0.01

就业中心	面积(hm²)	就业中心	面积(hm²)	就业中心	面积(hm²)	就业中心	面积(hm²)
南京西路	480	南京东路外滩	224	淮海中路	116	大柏树	48
徐家汇	460	曹杨路	220	淮海路	92	张江	48
张杨路	408	四川北路	196	打浦桥	80	豫园	36
长寿	400	陆家嘴	188	浦东软件园	76	外高桥	32
漕河泾经济技术开发区	380	五角场	184	唐镇	68	虹口龙之梦	28
中山公园	372	不夜城	172	虹桥临空经济园区	60	陆家浜	28
虹桥涉外贸易中心	264	苏河湾	148	江浦	52	曹安	24

就业中心	实测值	模拟值	就业中心	实测值	模拟值	就业中心	实测值	模拟值	就业中心	模拟值
南京西路	0.22	0.15	大柏树	0.05	0.03	虹口龙之梦	0.01	0.03	打浦桥	0.01
不夜城	0.14	0.11	五角场	0.04	0.04	浦东软件园	0.01	0.00	淮海路	0.01
苏河湾	0.08	0.06	张杨路	0.04	0.04	徐家汇	0.01	0.03	江浦	0.01
长寿	0.07	0.12	曹杨路	0.03	0.05	张江	0.01	0.00	陆家浜	0.00
中山公园	0.06	0.04	淮海中路	0.02	0.02	外高桥	0.01	0.00	陆家嘴	0.03
四川北路	0.06	0.10	南京东路外滩	0.02	0.08	曹安	0.00	0.00	唐镇	0.00
虹桥涉外贸易中心	0.11	0.02	虹桥临空经济园区	0.02	0.00	漕河泾经济技术开发区	0.00	0.01	豫园	0.01

	可达性	至商业中心距离	至地铁站距离	居住人口密度
q值	0.303	0.325	0.086	0.082
p值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

	可达性	至就业中心距离	至地铁站距离	居住人口密度
q值	0.036	0.037	0.015	0.032
p值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Validating gravity model in multi-centre city: A study based on individual mobile trajectory

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