Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (2): 240-254.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202002003

• Population and Urban Research • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial variation of the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention

GU Hengyu1,2, MENG Xin1,3, SHEN Tiyan1(), CUI Nana4   

  1. 1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    2. Center for Spatial Data Science, University of Chicago, Chicago 60637, IL USA
    3. China Resources (Shenzhen) CO., LTD, Shenzhen 518000, Guangdong, China
    4. School of Architecture and Design, Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2018-02-23 Revised:2019-10-30 Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-04-25
  • Contact: SHEN Tiyan
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China(17ZDA055);National Natural Science Foundation of China(71733001);China Scholarship Council Foundation(201906010255)


It is demonstrated that the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention are different among geographic units, which seems to be ignored by previous researches. Based on the data from the 2015 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey (CMDS) and related statistics, this article uses the Semiparametric Geographically Weighted Regression (SGWR) model and k-means cluster method to examine the spatial variation of the factors influencing floating population's settlement intention in 282 prefecture- and provincial- level cites of China. Results provide the following conclusions. (1) The settlement intention of urban floating population is mainly influenced by the floating population characteristics instead of the destination characteristics. (2) Social and economic factors are closely related to the floating population's settlement intention. Meanwhile, the demographic, family and mobility factors exert a significant impact on such an intention. To be specific, there exists an inhibitory effect on floating population's settlement intention in factors such as income, marriage, and cross provincial mobility. However, housing expenditure, participation rate, number of children and other factors can effectively contribute to such intention. (3) Zonal spatial differentiation patterns of the influencing factors' coefficients are illustrated by the SGWR model, which can be further divided into four categories ("E-W", "N-S", "NE-SW" and "SE-NW"): The positive influences of ethnic and family factors are decreasing from the northern to southern regions, while the influence of employment ratio in the secondary industry is declining from the northwest to the southeast regions, and the impacts of factors such as the number of children and per capita GDP are diminishing from the northeast to the southwest regions. In eastern developed areas, the settlement intention of floating population with higher income is comparatively lower, while migrants with higher housing expenditure in southern China have a stronger intention to settle down. (4) Four influencing zones are detected by the k-means method: Floating population's settlement intention in North China, Central China and East China is significantly affected by multiple factors; In the northwest region and part of the southwest region, migrants' settlement intention is mainly influenced by demographic and social factors; The northeast region and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia's floating population's willingness to stay is mainly related to economic and family factors; Apart from housing expenditure, coefficients of other factors are relatively small in southern China and part of the central, eastern and southwestern regions. Additionally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the service and management of the floating population in China.

Key words: floating population's settlement intention, determinants, spatial variation, semiparametric geographically weighted regression, China