中国城市土地城镇化多层级影响因素分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb202001013

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, land urbanization, as a spatial manifestation of China's expanding urbanization, has emerged as a core research field within urban geography and land science. Provincial administrative departments within China's distinctive administrative system significantly influence municipal administrative departments and urbanization levels. Individual-level influencing factors cannot fully explain the Chinese mode of urbanization. Therefore, a multilevel linear model was developed to identify factors influencing China's land urbanization process. The results indicated that in 2005, factor inputs, in particular, and public service critically influenced land urbanization in municipal urban areas. By 2016, economic development levels had superseded factor inputs, public service, and population agglomeration as the key influencing factor. At the provincial level, differences in economic development levels critically influenced land urbanization. The provincial government's prioritization of ecological and agricultural resource conservation had a significant negative impact on city-level factors and urban built-up areas. The relationship between the government's developmental attitude, geographical locations, and city-level factors was complex and varied according to regional development levels. A further finding was that since China's reform and opening-up policy was initiated in 1978, land urbanization has been driven by industrialization and urbanization, gradually shifting from government-led to economy-driven stage. Thus, a multilevel study of land urbanization reveals mechanisms and cross-level relationships among different factors that influence levels of land urbanization. Moreover, it provides a theoretical basis for rational policy formulation.

Key words: land urbanization, multilevel linear modeling, influencing factors, economy-driven, resource conservation, China

ZHANG Kaihuang, QIAN Qinglan, YANG Qingsheng. An analysis of multilevel variables influencing China's land urbanization process[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 179-193.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 6

Fig. 3

References 39

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层级	一级变量	二级指标	单位	属性	含义
市	土地城镇化	-	km²	-	土地城镇化水平
	人口集聚	人口密度	人/km^`	正	城市人口集聚水平
	经济发展	城镇人均可支配收入	元	正	城市居民生活水平
		人均GDP	万元/人	正	城市经济发展水平
		非农产业占比	%	正	城市非农产业发展水平
	要素投入	地均固定资产投入	万元/km²	正	城市要素投入强度
		道路面积	km²	正	城市要素投入强度
	公共服务	义务教育阶段生均教师数	个/百人	正	城市教育供给水平
		每万人医疗床位	床/万人	正	城市医疗供给水平
		人均公园绿地	m²/人	正	城市环境质量水平
省	政府开发态度	土地出让金占财政收入比	%	正	政府对土地城镇化的财政依赖程度
	政府开发态度	建筑企业税金占利税总额比	%	负	政府对建筑企业的抑制程度
		建设用地总规模^*	%/年	正	政府对城市土地扩张的积极态度
	政府资源保护态度	耕地保有量^*	%/年	负	政府对城市土地扩张的态度
	政府资源保护态度	基本农田保护面积^*	10⁴ hm²	负	政府对耕地保护的强度
		自然保护区面积	%	负	政府对生态环境的保护态度
	生态资源	人均水资源	m³/人	正	区域水资源的丰富程度
		人均森林资源	m²/人	正	区域森林资源的丰富程度
	农业资源	人均耕地资源	m²/人	正	区域耕地资源的丰富程度
		人均粮食	kg/人	正	区域粮食资源的丰富程度
		人均牛奶	kg/人	正	区域乳类产品的丰富程度
		人均肉类	kg/人	正	区域肉类产品的丰富程度
	地理区位	海拔	m	负	区域的地形地势
		所处区域	-	正	区域所处的区位条件

级	一级变量	二级指标	2005年		2016年
级	一级变量	二级指标	冗余度	变量内权重	冗余度	变量内权重
市	人口集聚	人口密度	0.051	1	0.055	1
	经济发展	城镇人均可支配收入	0.054	0.382	0.033	0.240
		人均GDP	0.077	0.548	0.091	0.662
		非农产业占比	0.010	0.069	0.014	0.098
	要素投入	地均固定资产投入	0.039	0.334	0.039	0.338
		道路面积	0.110	0.656	0.105	0.637
	公共服务	义务教育阶段生均教师数	0.018	0.110	0.021	0.125
		每万人医疗床位	0.060	0.301	0.038	0.249
		人均公园绿地	0.140	0.599	0.116	0.651
省	政府开发态度	土地出让金占财政收入比	0.056	0.482	0.042	0.518
		建筑企业税金占利税总额比	0.018	0.154	0.018	0.222
		建设用地指标	0.042	0.365	0.021	0.260
	政府资源保护态度	耕地指标	0.013	0.174	0.013	0.488
		基本农田保护面积	0.057	0.745	0.011	0.394
		自然保护区面积	0.006	0.081	0.003	0.118
	生态资源	人均水资源	0.373	0.636	0.327	0.637
		人均森林资源	0.214	0.364	0.186	0.363
	农业资源	人均耕地资源	0.054	0.163	0.065	0.192
		人均粮食	0.034	0.103	0.049	0.144
		人均牛奶	0.210	0.636	0.198	0.584
		人均肉类	0.032	0.098	0.027	0.080
	地理区位	海拔	0.004	0.059	0.004	0.059
		所处区域	0.062	0.941	0.062	0.941

	变量	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
市级层次	人口集聚	0.20	0.16	0.00	1.00
	经济发展	0.29	0.20	0.02	0.89
	要素投入	0.20	0.13	0.03	0.68
	公共服务	0.16	0.12	0.02	1.03
省级层次	政府开发态度	0.44	0.19	0.05	0.74
	政府资源保护态度	0.38	0.17	0.12	0.94
	生态资源	0.03	0.10	0.00	1.00
	农业资源	0.18	0.10	0.03	0.97
	地理区位	0.65	0.37	0.00	1.00

	指标	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
市级层次	人口集聚	0.22	0.16	0.00	1.00
	经济发展	0.26	0.15	0.04	0.81
	要素投入	0.21	0.13	0.02	0.69
	公共服务	0.22	0.14	0.05	0.95
省级层次	政府开发态度	0.28	0.08	0.11	0.61
	政府资源保护态度	0.59	0.11	0.24	0.98
	生态资源	0.03	0.10	0.00	1.00
	农业资源	0.17	0.16	0.02	0.93
	地理区位	0.65	0.37	0.00	1.00

市级	截距(面积初值)		人口集聚		经济发展		要素投入		公共服务
年份	2005年	2016年	2005年	2016年	2005年	2016年	2005年	2016年	2005年	2016年
全模型	157.90^***	25.18^***	-113.44	83.87^**	17.96	142.68^***	1050.56^***	116.71^***	401.42^***	137.70^***
最优模型	157.90^***	25.18^***		83.87^**		142.68^***	974.17^***	116.71^***	444.93^**	137.70^***

An analysis of multilevel variables influencing China's land urbanization process

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市级	截距(面积初值)		人口集聚		经济发展		要素投入		公共服务
年份	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016
FM	157.904^***	25.180^***	-113.443	83.866^**	17.962	142.678^***	1050.564^***	116.706^***	401.419^***	137.704^***
BM	157.904^***	25.180^***		83.866^**		142.678^***	974.166^***	116.706^***	444.931^**	137.704^***
省级	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016	2005	2016
截距	125.338^***	-163.851^***		259.571		-62.248	592.268^**	949.811^***	255.4682^**	1013.346^***
X₁	42.908	-824.386		779.383		-7225.857^**	-632.633	6649.941^**	-748.051	6344.718
X₂	-66.036	-950.776^**		159.433		4514.314	1437.472^***	65.208	23.41774	-1602.625
X₃	-2103.430	3794.889		-2374.787		10891.450	-15362.800	-185.446	-21760.5	-24191.067^**
X₄	43.121	-759.147^**		1542.973		-855.624	-878.967	1658.562	2717.385^**	2203.215
X₅	-90.921^**	113.764		-55.565		-345.189	-591.586	11.762	995.369^**	-140.121

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