行政区划调整的政区位势理论与模型构建——以重庆市为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb201912006

Abstract

Abstract:

There is a lack of basic theory and methods to examine the effect of administrative division (AD) on regional development. Based on the theory and practice of Chinese AD adjustments, this study defined the concept of administrative region potential (ARP) and developed a quantitative model to measure the ARP. Then, the model was validated using Chongqing as an empirical case. The results show that: (1) the ARP consists of energy of position (i.e., geographic space factors) and gravitational potential energy (i.e., administrative management system factors). Administrative division adjustment can change the ARP, thereby changing its path and driving force or regional development. (2) The ARP model of Chongqing city can objectively reflect the effects of administrative division adjustment events on Chongqing city. Specifically, the ARP includes variables of land jurisdiction, human capital level, fixed asset investment capacity, and administrative hierarchy of fiscal decentralization and administrative decentralization. (3) The ARP promotion has a significantly positive influence on the performance of local economic development in Chongqing city. (4) Reasonable AD adjustments will assist the region by integrating production elements and resources, enhancing the political power of the city, improving its ARP, and then promoting local economic development. The ARP model is proved to be an efficient method to understand and explain the regional effect of AD adjustment. It provides a new analytical perspective for the planning of AD adjustment in various regions, which can also be used as a practical method for assessing the effects of AD adjustment.

Key words: administrative division, administrative region potential, model, regression analysis, Chongqing city

WANG Kaiyong, WANG Fuyuan, CHEN Tian. The theory and measurement model of administrative region potential from the perspective of administrative division adjustment using Chongqing city as a case study[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(12): 2495-2510.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Tab. 2

Formulas for measurement of the factors for administrative region potential

维度	指标	衡量方法	公式中变量的含义
因变量	人均GDP占比(AGP)	$AG P t = GD P t PO P t TGD P t TPO P t$ （7）	GDP_t为第t年地方生产总值;TGDP_t为第t年全国生产总值;POP_t为重庆市第t年常住人口数;TPOP_t为全国第t年常住人口数。
S	建设用地管辖面积占比(LP)	$L P t = B A t PO P t TB A t TPO P t × 1 - GD P t TGD P t$ （8）	BA_t为表示地方行政区第t年城市市辖区建成区面积;TBA_t为第t年全国城市市辖区建成区面积。
	人力资本占比(HCP)	$HC P t = C S t PO P t × 10000 TC S t TPO P t × 10000 × 1 - GD P t TGD P t$ （9）	CS_t为地方第t年高等学校在校学生数;TCS_t为第t年高等学校在校学生数。
	固定资产投资占比(FTP)	$FT P t = F S t PO P t TF S t TPO P t × 1 - GD P t TGD P t$ （10）	FS_t为地方第t年固定资产投资额;TFS_t为全国第t年固定资产投资额。
Q	政区财政分权度(FD)	$F D t = F S t PO P t F S t PO P t + CGF S t TPO P t × 1 - GD P t TGD P t$ （11）	FS_t为第t年地方财政支出;CGFS_t为第t年中央财政支出;GDP_t为第t年地方生产总值;TGDP_t第t年全国生产总值。
Q	地方行政管理分权度(AD)	$A D t = P S t PO P t × 10000 TP S t TPO P t × 10000 × 1 - GD P t TGD P t$ （12）	PS_t为地方第t年公共管理和社会组织人数; TPS_t为全国第t年公共管理和社会组织人数。

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

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具体时间	调整情况
1992年3月至8月	永川县、江津县、合川县三县撤县设市,划归重庆市代管。
1995年3月1日	重庆市原九区三市九县建制调整为十一区三市七县建制,扩大市中区、江北区、南岸区、沙坪坝区、九龙坡区、大渡口区、北碚区的行政区域,撤销了巴县、江北县,设立巴南区、渝北区,区划调整后,主城区的面积由低于931.07 km²增加到5472.82 km^2[30]。
1996年9月15日	中央批准重庆市代管万县市、涪陵市和黔江地区。
1997年6月18日	重庆市升格,成为中国第4个中央直辖市。
1998年12月20日	重庆市又撤销万县市及所辖龙宝区、天城区、五桥区,设立重庆万州区,同时设万州移民开发区,撤销涪陵市及枳城区、李渡区,设立重庆涪陵区。
2001年12月25日	撤销长寿县,设立长寿区。
2006年10月22日	撤销江津市、合川市、永川市、南川市,分别设立江津区、合川区、永川区、南川区,市辖区建成区面积在该年有大规模增加。
2011年10月27日	撤销万盛区和綦江县,设立綦江区、万盛经济技术开发区;撤销双桥区和大足县,设立大足区、双桥经济技术开发区。
2014年5月2日	撤销铜梁县和璧山县,设立铜梁区和璧山区。下辖21个市辖区、13个县、4个自治县。

序列	ADF统计值	显著性概率	阶数	方法	结论
政区位势	-4.694	0.004	1	趋势与截距	平稳
人均GDP占比	-5.679	0.000	1	趋势与截距	平稳
人均对外出口水平	-6.837	0.000	1	趋势与截距	平稳
人口非农化率	-5.379	0.001	1	趋势与截距	平稳
人口就业水平	-4.487	0.009	1	趋势与截距	平稳

变量	回归系数	标准化残差	T统计量	显著性概率
常数项	0.609	0.052	11.717	0.000
政区位势	0.604	0.110	5.477	0.000
人口非农化率	-0.009	0.218	-0.040	0.969
人均对外出口水平	0.107	0.035	3.051	0.005
西部大开发×政区位势	-0.041	0.027	-1.541	0.136
人口就业水平	-0.167	0.040	-4.203	0.000
R²=0.963, R²_Adjusted=0.956, F=131.583, DW=1.404

The theory and measurement model of administrative region potential from the perspective of administrative division adjustment using Chongqing city as a case study

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