基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法

doi:10.11821/dlxb201911012

Abstract

Abstract:

A new method was proposed to identify drought-flood transition events by combining a drought-flood index (Standard Weighted Average Precipitation, SWAP) with the multi-threshold theory. This method was tested in the Yangtze River Basin using daily precipitation data from 212 stations for the 1961-2017 period. With this method, the meteorological drought and rainstorm flood in the representative station were identified, and representative regional drought-flood transition events and spatiotemporal patterns of drought-flood transition were analyzed. The results show that: SWAP is an effective index to identify the meteorological drought and rainstorm flood. K-means clustering can classify similar drought-flood transition events into one cluster. The drought event plays a dominate role in drought-flood transition events for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in 2011, and the drought lasts for a much longer duration than the flood during the drought-flood transition event. Drought-flood transition events show an obvious regional pattern for the Yangtze River Basin with low frequency for the upper reaches and high frequency for the middle and lower reaches. In addition, the drought-flood transition frequency presents an increasing trend recently for most parts of the Yangtze River Basin. Overall, the results imply that the proposed method combining meteorological drought index with multi-threshold theory is capable of identifying drought-flood transition events, and can be further used for predicting drought-flood transition events.

Key words: drought-flood transition, Standard Weighted Average Precipitation, multi-threshold theory, clustering

YANG Jiawei, CHEN Hua, HOU Yukun, ZHAO Ying, CHEN Qihui, XU Chongyu, CHEN Jie. A method to identify the drought-flood transition based on the meteorological drought index[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(11): 2358-2370.

Figures/Tables 14

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References 32

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区域	编号	二级子流域分区	面积(万km²)	气象站点数（个）
长江上游	a	金沙江石鼓上游	20.83	7
	b	金沙江石鼓下游	23.71	20
	c	岷沱江	16.48	14
	d	嘉陵江	15.88	13
	e	乌江	8.7	11
	f	上游干流区	12.02	15
长江中游	g	洞庭湖	26.23	42
	h	汉江	15.55	23
	i	鄱阳湖	16.23	25
	j	中游干流区	9.67	19
长江下游	k	三角洲平原区	3.75	9
长江下游	l	下游干流区	9.25	14

旱涝等级	SWAP	概率(%)
特涝	2.0 ≤ SWAP	2.3
重涝	1.5 ≤ SWAP < 2.0	4.4
中涝	1.0 ≤ SWAP < 1.5	9.2
轻涝	0.5 ≤ SWAP < 1.0	15
正常	-0.5 < SWAP < 0.5	38.2
轻旱	-1.0 < SWAP ≤ -0.5	15
中旱	-1.5 < SWAP ≤ -1.0	9.2
重旱	-2.0 < SWAP ≤ -1.5	4.4
特旱	SWAP≤-2.0	2.3

旱涝急转强度	K
轻度	1.0 ≤ K < 2.0
中度	2.0 ≤ K < 3.0
重度	3.0 ≤ K

干旱起始	干旱结束	持续天数(d)	历史记载	来源
1961/7/12	1961/9/2	52	严重伏秋连旱	1、2
1966/3/22	1966/11/13	236	轻度春旱,严重伏秋连旱	1、2
1972/6/8	1972/9/12	96	严重伏秋连旱	1、2
1976/7/23	1976/10/22	91	严重伏秋连旱	1、2
1978/7/7	1978/10/26	111	特大伏秋连旱	1、2
1981/5/1	1981/6/27	57	严重春夏连旱	1
1992/8/11	1993/1/3	145	严重伏秋连旱	1
1994/5/2	1994/7/13	72	严重夏旱	1
2001/5/15	2001/11/29	198	严重春夏秋连旱	3
2010/11/29	2011/6/14	197	严重春夏连旱	4

日期	单日降水(mm)	暴雨洪涝起始	暴雨洪涝结束
1982/6/20	298.5	1982/6/20	1982/10/7
1998/7/21	285.7	1998/7/21	1998/9/5
1969/8/23	261.7	1969/7/7	1969/10/10
2016/7/6	241.5	2016/6/19	2016/9/2
1961/6/8	214.5	1961/6/8	1961/6/25
1991/7/9	209.8	1991/5/21	1991/8/22
1962/7/4	198.0	1962/7/4	1962/10/20
2011/6/18	197.9	2011/6/14	2011/7/13
1962/8/23	180.9	1962/7/4	1962/10/14
2016/6/19	180.0	2016/6/19	2016/9/2

A method to identify the drought-flood transition based on the meteorological drought index

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