中国人口老龄化格局演变与形成机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201910015

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the Sixth National Census and annual China Statistical Yearbook, the paper characterizes the spatial patterns and variation features of the "quantity" and "quality" of China's aging and its mechanism over the past 30 years or more by using spatial autocorrelation, Sullivan healthy life expectancy measurement model, and geographical weighted regression. The results are shown as follows: (1) Overall, the development of "quantity" of aging is not coordinated with that of "quality", and there are spatial differences between them. (2) In terms of "quantity", the figure of aging in the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is higher than that in the northwest half, but the change of growth rate has a phased feature. There are high and low value agglomeration areas at the aging level. The high-value agglomeration area expands from the coastal area to the inland area, while the low-value agglomeration area located in the northwest of China is gradually shrinking. (3) In terms of "quality", the figure of the southeast half of "Hu Huanyong Line" is better than that of the northwest half, and the eastern coastal provinces enjoy far higher figures than other regions. (4) In terms of "quality" characteristics represented by life expectancy, the figure of the life expectancy and the healthy life expectancy are not synchronized, and there are gender differences and morbidity expansion effect. Compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has higher life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. (5) From the perspective of formation mechanism, the formation of the "quantity" pattern of aging is affected by the interaction between natural and migrating population variations, with the birth rate being the major element. As for "quality", differences in natural environment and uncoordinated development of social environment are significant factors affecting life expectancy, and economic development and the health and medical services progress are the main driving forces for greater longevity.

Key words: aging, spatial patterns, aging coefficient, life expectancy, formative mechanism, China

ZHOU Rong, ZHUANG Rulong, HUANG Chenxi. Pattern evolution and formative mechanism of aging in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2163-2177.

Figures/Tables 10

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	合计			男性			女性			男女差值(年)
年份	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	预期寿命(年)	增量(年)	增速(%)	男女差值(年)
1982	67.77	-	-	66.28	-	-	69.27	-	-	2.99
1990	68.55	0.78	1.15	66.84	0.56	0.84	70.47	1.20	1.73	3.63
1995	70.80	2.25	3.28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2000	71.40	0.60	0.85	69.63	-	-	73.33	-	-	3.70
2005	72.95	1.55	2.17	70.83	1.20	1.72	75.25	1.92	2.62	4.42
2010	74.83	1.88	2.58	72.38	1.55	2.19	77.37	2.12	2.82	4.99
2015	76.34	1.51	2.02	73.64	1.26	1.74	79.43	2.06	2.66	5.79

指标	平均值	最大值	最小值	上四分位值	中位值	下四分位值
x₁	-0.3520	-0.1875	-0.4583	-0.2691	-0.3689	-0.4336
x₂	-0.1192	0.0805	-0.2868	-0.0000	-0.1447	-0.2259
x₃	0.0066	0.0125	0.0035	0.0079	0.0063	0.0051
x₄	-0.0064	-0.0052	-0.0100	-0.0054	-0.0055	-0.0073
x₅	-0.0005	0.0026	-0.0103	0.0018	0.0011	-0.0018
x₆	0.0245	0.0353	0.0096	0.0309	0.0267	0.0175
x₇	0.0238	0.0507	0.0043	0.0381	0.0205	0.0100

Pattern evolution and formative mechanism of aging in China

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