中国城市绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb201910006

Abstract

Abstract:

Green development is pivotal to resolving natural environmental constraints, solving national economic transition, and supporting and realizing the United Nations sustainable development goals. It is gradually growing into a crucial guideline for China's ecological civilization construction, "Beautiful China" development, and global economic transition and restructure. Based on a thorough review of the concept of green development, this paper accurately depicts a full picture of China's spatio-temporal patterns of urban green development efficiency (UGDE) in 2005-2015 by using SBM-Undesirable, the Theil index and the Spatial Markov Chain methods. Moreover, the influencing mechanism has been further discussed based on a quantitative analysis of both natural and human factors. Our results demonstrate that: (1) UGDE increased steadily by 10% from 0.475 in 2005 to 0.523 in 2015. And temporally, it shows a pattern of "W"-shaped fluctuated growth. (2) Spatially, UGDE decreased from eastern to central China, and further to western China. Besides, there is an inverted pyramid pattern of "national level > regional level > local level" urban agglomeration in UDGE growth. Moreover, there is a steady urban scale structure from super city to small city in UDGE. (3) There is an evident concentration of cities with high-level and low-level UDGE, indicating a significant influence of path dependence. (4) Quantitatively speaking, compared to natural factors, human factors such as economy size, industry structure, and openness level play a more important role in influencing the UDGE.

Key words: green development, efficiency, spatial markov chain, spatio-temporal evolution, man-land relationship, sustainable development goals（SDGs）

ZHOU Liang, CHE Lei, ZHOU Chenghu. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(10): 2027-2044.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 35

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类型	一级	二级	三级
投入	资本要素	固定资本存量	全社会固定资产投资总额
	劳动力要素	单位从业人数	年末单位从业人数
	技术要素	专利授权量	各地专利申请授权数量
	资源要素	水、土、能源消费总量	供水总量、城市建成区面积、全社会用电量
	资源要素	水、土、能源消费总量	人工和天然气供气量、液化气供应量
产出	期望产出	经济效益	国内生产总值(2005年不变价)
		社会效益	城市职工平均工资、社会消费品零售总额
		环境效益	城市绿地面积、绿地覆盖率、工业固体废物综合利用率
		环境效益	污水处理厂集中处理率、生活垃圾无害化处理率
	非期望产出	环境污染	工业废水排放量、工业SO₂排放量、工业烟尘排放量

类型		2005-2008年					2008-2009年					2009-2015年
类型		1	2	3	4		1	2	3	4		1	2	3	4
1	1	0.847	0.097	0.028	0.028		0.762	0.119	0.071	0.048		0.844	0.131	0.010	0.015
	2	0.292	0.477	0.200	0.031		0.190	0.238	0.476	0.095		0.202	0.551	0.191	0.056
	3	0.167	0.250	0.417	0.167		0.167	0.417	0.250	0.167		0.000	0.275	0.625	0.100
	4	0.111	0.111	0.222	0.556		0.222	0.000	0.000	0.778		0.034	0.052	0.190	0.724
2	1	0.674	0.304	0.022	0.000		0.357	0.500	0.071	0.071		0.805	0.161	0.011	0.023
	2	0.250	0.515	0.176	0.059		0.154		0.346	0.385		0.115	0.167		0.592	0.225	0.017
	3	0.118	0.196	0.549	0.137		0.045		0.091	0.500		0.364	0.016		0.203	0.626	0.154
	4	0.000	0.043	0.087	0.870	0.000		0.000	0.222	0.778	0.010		0.051	0.153	0.786
3	1	0.740	0.260	0.000	0.000	0.455	0.364	0.091	0.091	0.692	0.282	0.013	0.013
	2	0.280	0.480	0.200	0.040	0.176		0.294	0.471	0.059	0.130		0.652	0.174	0.043
	3	0.082	0.219	0.548	0.151	0.077		0.231	0.308	0.385	0.017		0.182	0.645	0.157
	4	0.019	0.074	0.148	0.759	0.000		0.100	0.200	0.700	0.009		0.026	0.183	0.783
4	1	0.833	0.133	0.033	0.000	0.600	0.400	0.000	0.000	0.838	0.162	0.000	0.000
	2	0.207	0.517	0.241	0.034	0.056		0.389	0.556	0.000	0.120		0.652	0.163	0.065
	3	0.049	0.246	0.557	0.148	0.000		0.111	0.500	0.389	0.010		0.286	0.480	0.224
	4	0.000	0.010	0.237	0.753	0.000		0.042	0.042	0.917	0.000		0.031	0.221	0.748

	变量	模型（1）	Z值	模型（2）	Z值	模型（3）	Z值
人文社会因素	rgdp	0.025^***	3.68			0.030^***	4.20
	rgdp²	0.013^***	3.68			0.015^***	4.20
	is	0.087^*	1.55			0.089^*	1.58
	fdi	0.007^**	2.07			0.005^*	1.50
	te	-0.439^***	-6.64			-0.453^***	-6.84
自然本底因素	temp			0.005^**	2.32	0.007^***	3.21
	pre			-0.004	-0.67	-0.001	-0.40
	eq			0.0001	0.28	0.0004	0.38
	ndvi			0.119^*	1.67	-0.027	1.01
	C	0.212^***	-3.71	0.723^***	-3.62	0.099^***	1.01
相关检验	sigma_u	0.181		0.187		0.178
	sigma_e	0.139		0.141		0.139
	rho	0.628		0.638		0.621
	似然比检验	1305.72		1262.74		1312.67

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban green development efficiency in China

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