海平面上升风险中国大陆沿海地区人口与经济暴露度

doi:10.11821/dlxb201908008

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset, the relevant Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was imported into ArcGIS and spatial analysis tools were used to extract possible flooding ranges due to sea level rise in 11 provinces and cities of coastal China. Combined with population, economic, and land use data, a sea level rise risk exposure assessment model is constructed and the population and economic risk exposure from sea level rise in coastal region of China are assessed. Three primary conclusions are drawn from the evaluation: (1) The impact of sea level rise on the coast areas is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and northern Jiangsu coastal plains, as well as the Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim, and other coastal plain areas. The most seriously affected land use types are arable land, which accounts for 65% of affected areas, followed by construction land; (2) Based on population and economic statistics from 2015 and 10 to 1000 years return periods, sea level rise increases risks to populations and the aggregated economy. In terms of sea level rise risk exposure, Guangzhou is most exposed and other areas with high exposure are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, northern Jiangsu coastal plains, the Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim Region; (3) Based on population and economic statistics estimated using five shared social economic paths (SSPs), and variations in return periods from 10 to 1000 years, the gross population and the aggregated economies for 2025 and 2100 tended to increase in different paths. The conventional development path (SSP5) resulted in the largest affected population and aggregated economy while the local or inconsistent development path (SSP3) and unbalanced development path (SSP4) resulted in lower impacts than those of the other three paths. Changes in the return period from 10 to 1000 years can shift the risk exposure. Comparing the exposure risk to the population and economies, we found that the exposure degree in 2100 will be lower than that in 2025.

Key words: sea level rise, GTSR data, exposure, return period, SSPs, coastal area of China

GAO Chao,WANG Li,CHEN Cai,LUO Gang,SUN Yanwei. Population and economic risk exposure in coastal regionof China under sea level rise[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1590-1604.

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方案	人口	经济	土地利用数据	CR值
1	0.7050	0.2053	0.0897	0.0176
2	0.7375	0.1773	0.0852	0.0015
3	0.7608	0.1576	0.0816	0.0012
4	0.7396	0.1666	0.0938	0.0136
5	0.6483	0.2297	0.1220	0.0036
6	0.7306	0.1884	0.0810	0.0624

方案	1	2	3	4	5	6
CR	0.0176	0.0015	0.0012	0.0136	0.0036	0.0624
BI	0.4484	0.5157	0.5697	0.5120	0.3218	0.5067

目标	指标	权重	二级指标	权重
暴露度评估	人口	0.6483	P₁	0.0388
			P₂	0.0479
			P₃	0.0979
			P₄	0.1688
			P₅	0.2950
	经济	0.2297	G₁	0.0105
			G₂	0.0206
			G₃	0.0252
			G₄	0.0528
			G₅	0.1207
	土地利用数据	0.1220	L₁(水域)	0.0039
			L₂(未利用地)	0.0086
			L₃(草地)	0.0091
			L₄(林地)	0.0163
			L₅(耕地)	0.0314
			L₆(建设用地)	0.0526

	人口(万人)				经济(×10⁶万元)
	重现期10 a	重现期100 a	重现期1000 a		重现期10 a	重现期100 a	重现期1000 a
合计	3856.51	4734.42	6025.99		336.54	434.86	543.16

暴露度等级	极高	高	中等	低	极低	合计
重现期10 a城市个数	2	9	18	37	250	316
重现期100 a城市个数	4	15	18	36	245	318
重现期1000 a城市个数	7	16	19	34	243	319

Population and economic risk exposure in coastal regionof China under sea level rise

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	2025年						2100年
	等级	SSP1	SSP2	SSP3	SSP4	SSP5	SSP1	SSP2	SSP3	SSP4	SSP5
重现期10 a	极低	145	145	144	145	144	145	145	144	145	144
	低	27	27	28	27	27	27	27	28	27	27
	中	15	15	16	15	14	15	15	16	15	14
	高	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	2	2	3
	极高	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	1	2
重现期100 a	极低	137	136	136	137	137	155	151	148	156	146
	低	30	31	31	30	30	26	29	33	26	29
	中	17	17	17	17	17	7	9	7	6	12
	高	6	4	5	5	4	2	2	3	2	1
	极高	1	3	2	2	3	1	1	0	1	3
重现期1000 a	极低	130	130	130	130	129	153	149	146	154	144
	低	31	32	32	32	31	26	28	33	26	28
	中	20	19	20	20	19	8	10	8	7	13
	高	7	5	6	6	7	2	3	4	3	3
	极高	3	5	3	3	5	2	1	0	1	3

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