生态脆弱区社会—生态景观恢复力时空演变及情景模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb201907013

Abstract

Abstract:

It is of fundamental significance to reveal the influencing mechanism of changes in human activities on ecological environment and landscape services, and to promote regional sustainable development that explores spatio-temporal variation and evolution of social-ecological resilience at the most operable landscape scale. Taking the loess hilly-gully region of Mizhi county as an example, this paper constructed an evaluation index system of social-ecological landscape resilience from the three dimensions of ecosystem, society system, and production system. The resilience of spatial-temporal evolution of the social-ecological landscape and subsystems were analyzed in this area along with their mutual relationships. The following results were obtained from this study: (1) During 2000-2015, the spatial distribution of the three subsystems resilience was prominently distinct and significantly strengthened. Among them, the resilience was significantly enhanced in the first stage of "Grain for Green Project" (2000-2009), and the resilience index of the three systems increased by 0.134, 0.048 and 0.028, respectively. (2) The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape was also significantly distinct and the resilience index increased by 11.60%. The spatial distribution of resilience on social-ecological landscape presents a pattern of "high in center and low in eastern and western parts". (3) The positive relationships between the changes of the subsystems resilience and landscape system resilience were dominant, and the synergistic relationship between the resilience of the subsystems was obvious. The synergy rate of two or three systems is over 90%. In this study, OWA method was applied based on different weights of interference and adaptive ability indexes to set up situational preferences. Following this, simulation diagrams of social-ecological landscape resilience of the unsustainably oriented scenario, the current situation oriented scenario and sustainably oriented scenario were mapped, which provide a decision support for the adaptive management of regional landscape.

Key words: social-ecological landscape, landscape resilience, spatio-temporal evolution, scenario simulation, fragile area

ZHANG Hang,LIANG Xiaoying,LIU Di,SHI Qinqin,CHEN Hai. The resilience evolution and scenario simulation of social-ecological landscape in the fragile area[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1450-1466.

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准则层(权重)	要素层	指标(权重)	单位	指标方向
生态系统(0.350)	景观格局	景观多样性指数(0.146)	%	+
	景观格局	景观连接性指数(0.152)	%	-
	生态系统功能	植被覆盖度(0.169)	%	-
	生态胁迫	化肥施用强度(0.179)	kg/hm²	+
	生态胁迫	农药施用强度(0.137)	kg/hm²	+
	生态保护	“三田”面积占比(0.216)	%	+
社会系统(0.293)	产业结构	产业结构多样化指数(0.207)	%	+
	人口压力	人类活动强度(0.281)	%	-
	农户生计	农业总产值(0.234)	元	+
	集体记忆	外迁人口占比(0.279)	%	-
生产系统(0.357)	地形条件	坡度(0.208)	度	-
	地形条件	高程(0.161)	m	-
	生产能力	粮食产量(0.213)	kg	+
	生产能力	耕地面积占比(0.228)	%	+
	劳动力	农业劳动力数量(0.190)	人	+

恢复力等级		2000年		2000-2009年面积变化 (km²)	2009年		2009-2015年面积变化 (km²)	2015年		2000-2015年面积变化 (km²)
恢复力等级		面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	2000-2009年面积变化 (km²)	面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	2009-2015年面积变化 (km²)	面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	2000-2015年面积变化 (km²)
生态系统	I级	378.52	31.49	-324.56	53.96	4.58	-28.59	42.90	3.64	-335.62
	II级	412.39	34.89	-61.78	350.61	29.74	-21.43	329.18	27.92	-83.21
	III级	230.07	17.94	218.66	448.73	38.06	-45.64	415.1	35.21	185.03
	IV级	135.95	11.72	111.25	247.20	20.69	51.54	298.74	25.34	162.79
	V级	22.00	3.96	55.92	77.92	6.61	44.39	93.01	7.89	71.01
社会系统	I级	72.28	6.13	-36.14	36.14	3.07	22.26	58.40	4.95	-13.88
	II级	482.73	41.03	-62.33	420.4	35.66	-225.54	194.86	16.53	-287.87
	III级	245.55	20.83	117.92	363.47	30.83	20.84	384.31	32.60	138.76
	IV级	271.72	23.05	-108.42	163.30	13.85	244.66	407.96	34.61	136.24
	V级	106.28	9.02	89.27	195.55	16.59	-62.23	133.32	11.31	27.04
生产系统	I级	138.93	11.79	-62.79	76.14	6.46	-28.53	47.61	4.04	-91.32
	II级	199.86	16.95	0.54	200.40	17.00	11.16	211.56	17.95	11.70
	III级	589.18	49.98	-25.71	563.47	47.80	-54.86	508.61	43.14	-80.57
	IV级	199.00	16.88	64.30	263.3	22.34	-0.48	302.82	25.69	103.82
	V级	51.50	4.37	24.05	75.55	6.41	32.45	108.00	9.16	56.50

恢复力等级	I级	II级	III级	IV级	V级	2000年总计
I级 (km²)	42.90	174.32	91.93	39.43	29.94	378.52
II级 (km²)		144.51	173.27	94.61		412.39
III级 (km²)		10.35	99.06	92.20	28.46	230.07
IV级 (km²)			50.84	62.87	22.24	135.95
V级 (km²)				9.63	12.37	22.00
2015年总计(km²)	42.90	329.18	415.10	298.74	93.01	1178.90
面积净变化(km²)	-335.62	-83.21	185.03	162.79	71.01

恢复力等级	I级	II级	III级	IV级	V级	2000年总计
I级 (km²)	14.62	32.50	25.16			72.28
II级 (km²)	18.23	210.79	201.48	53.23		483.73
III级 (km²)		87.53	132.08	25.94		245.55
IV级 (km²)			67.57	80.57	123.58	271.72
V级 (km²)				16.23	90.05	106.28
2015年总计(km²)	58.40	194.86	384.31	407.96	133.32	1178.85
面积净变化(km²)	-13.88	-288.87	138.76	136.24	27.04

恢复力等级	I级	II级	III级	IV级	V级	2000年总计
I级 (km²)	47.61	57.12	34.20			138.93
II级 (km²)		76.43	60.50	62.93		199.86
III级 (km²)		69.34	400.98	109.36	29.50	609.18
IV级 (km²)		8.67	12.93	111.60	65.80	199.00
V级 (km²)				18.93	32.70	51.50
2015年总计(km²)	47.61	211.56	508.61	302.82	128.00	1178.85
面积净变化(km²)	-91.32	-8.30	29.43	13.51	21.81

The resilience evolution and scenario simulation of social-ecological landscape in the fragile area

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恢复力等级	I级	II级	III级	IV级	V级	2000年总计
I级 (km²)	50.11	58.01	65.09			173.21
II级 (km²)	8.29	83.65	113.94	165.82		371.70
III级 (km²)		53.20	180.36	191.32	35.07	459.95
IV级 (km²)			24.92	45.99	43.81	114.72
V级 (km²)				4.83	54.44	59.27
2015年总计(km²)	58.40	194.86	384.31	407.96	133.32	1178.85
面积净变化(km²)	-114.81	-176.84	-75.64	293.24	74.05

次序权重	a→0(0.0001) 极悲观	a = 0.1 悲观	a = 0.5 较悲观	a = 1 无偏好	a = 2 较乐观	a = 10 乐观	a→∞(1000) 极乐观
人类活动强度	1	0.8123	0.3536	0.0667	0.0156	0.0000	0
外迁人口占比	0	0.0554	0.1380	0.0667	0.0428	0.0000	0
坡度	0	0.0327	0.1000	0.0667	0.0641	0.0000	0
化肥施用强度	0	0.0229	0.0792	0.0667	0.0800	0.0000	0
高程	0	0.0173	0.0652	0.0667	0.0909	0.0018	0
农药施用强度	0	0.0136	0.0546	0.0667	0.0972	0.0069	0
景观多样性指数	0	0.0109	0.0461	0.0667	0.0994	0.0192	0
景观连接性指数	0	0.0088	0.0389	0.0667	0.0978	0.0419	0
植被覆盖度	0	0.0072	0.0327	0.0667	0.0929	0.0759	0
产业结构多样性	0	0.0058	0.0271	0.0667	0.085	0.1170	0
农业劳动力数量	0	0.0046	0.0220	0.0667	0.0746	0.1558	0
农业总产值	0	0.0035	0.0173	0.0667	0.0622	0.1798	0
“三田”面积占比	0	0.0026	0.0127	0.0667	0.0481	0.1776	0
粮食产量	0	0.0017	0.0084	0.0667	0.0328	0.1434	0
耕地面积占比	0	0.0008	0.0042	0.0667	0.0166	0.0803	1

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[2]	CHAI Yuanfang, DENG Jinyun, YANG Yunping, SUN Zhaohua, LI Yitian, ZHU Lingling. Evolution characteristics and driving factors of the water level at the same discharge in the Jingjiang reach of Yangtze River [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 101-113.
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[5]	YU Shuchen, WANG Lunche, XIA Weiping, YU Deqing, LI Chang'an, HE Qiuhua. Spatio-temporal evolution of riparian lakes in Dongting Lake area since the late Qing Dynasty [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2346-2361.
[6]	LI Gang, WANG Jiaobei, XU Tingting, GAO Xing, JIN Annan, YU Yue. Spatio-temporal evolution process and integrated measures for prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2475-2489.
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[15]	. Epidemiological Features and Spatio-temporal Evolution in the Early Phase of the Beijing H1N1 Epidemic [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(3): 361-368.

恢复力等级	情景一		情景一、二面积变化 (km²)	情景二		情景二、三面积变化 (km²)	情景三		情景一、三面积变化 (km²)
恢复力等级	面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	情景一、二面积变化 (km²)	面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	情景二、三面积变化 (km²)	面积 (km²)	比例 (%)	情景一、三面积变化 (km²)
I级	278.10	23.59	-218.13	59.96	5.09	-46.16	13.80	1.17	-264.30
II级	464.95	39.44	-312.77	152.17	12.91	-76.48	75.69	6.42	-389.25
III级	224.54	19.05	409.79	634.34	53.81	-212.65	421.68	35.77	197.14
IV级	158.04	13.41	43.05	201.10	17.06	276.37	477.47	40.50	319.43
V级	53.22	4.51	78.06	131.28	11.14	58.92	190.21	16.14	136.98