西南地区山洪灾害时空分布特征及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb201907008

Abstract

Abstract:

Studies on spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of flash floods are key contents to the assessment and management of flash flood. Based on the historic flash flood data in southwest China from 1960 to 2015, the spatial and temporal distribution of flash flood and its influencing factors were analyzed by using the linear regression model, standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation, and logistic regression model. The results show that: (1) The annual frequency of flash floods in southwest China shows an exponential growth trend, and the annual variation reveals a stable, slow and rapid increase fluctuation during 1960-1980, 1981-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively; the monthly characteristics are obvious and precipitation is mainly concentrated in June, July and August. (2) The obvious spatial difference of flash flood is observed in the study area, and the high-density areas are mainly concentrated in central Yunnan plateau, Sichuan Basin and their surrounding mountainous areas. The flash flood distribution has a significant spatial positive correlation and spatial agglomeration (Moran's I index is 0.127, Z = 5.784, P = 0.007). (3) The gravity center of historical disasters has a distinct trend of moving to the west during the year. The standard deviation ellipse angle gradually weakens, the long axis gradually lengthens, and the short axis gradually shortens. (4) Rainfall factors have the maximum impact on flash floods, followed by human activity factors, and the minimal is surface environmental factors. Among the rainfall factors, the one-hour rainfall has the strongest impact on flash floods, and its dominant ratio reached 3.654. The results can provide techinical support for research on forming mechanism, monitoring and early warning, and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures of flash floods.

Key words: southwest China, flash flood, spatial-temporal pattern, logistic regression

XIONG Junnan,LI Jin,CHENG Weiming,ZHOU Chenghu,GUO Liang,ZHANG Xiaolei,WANG Nan,LI Wei. Spatial-temporal distribution and the influencing factors of mountain flood disaster in southwest China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1374-1391.

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月份	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
重心坐标	105°23′E	104°26′E,	103°45′E,	102°41′E	103°41′E
重心坐标	27°37′N	27°30′N	27°45′N	27°14′N	28°16′N
移动方向	-	西	西	西南	东北
偏移距离(km)	0	95.5	72.9	120.2	151.1
方向角度(°)	52.534	50.344	43.683	36.972	41.331
长半轴(km)	415.530	436.380	494.478	474.403	605.705
短半轴(km)	275.807	315.182	302.194	288.856	227.662

类型	变量	β	S.E.	sig.	Exp(β)
地表环境因子	地形起伏度	-0.133	0.074	0.073	0.875
	坡度	-0.008	0.023	0.705	0.991
	高程标准差	0.102	0.066	0.120	1.108
降雨因子	年均降雨量	-0.104	0.035	0.003	0.901
	M10	-1.195	0.075	0.000	0.303
	M60	1.295	0.076	0.000	3.654
	H6	0.289	0.058	0.000	1.336
	H24	-0.095	0.058	0.102	0.909
人类活动因子	GDP	0.396	0.086	0.000	1.486
人类活动因子	人口密度	0.232	0.040	0.000	1.262
	Constant	-0.788	0.236	0.001	0.455

实际是否发生	模型预测
	是否发生		正确率（%）
	0	1	正确率（%）
0	1165	483	70.7
1	364	1504	80.5
总体百分比			75.9

Spatial-temporal distribution and the influencing factors of mountain flood disaster in southwest China

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