基于Meta回归方法的中国内陆河流域生态系统服务价值再评估

doi:10.11821/dlxb201905015

Abstract

Abstract:

Incorporating the economic value of river basin ecosystem services into cost-benefit analysis is the key to solving environmental problems and achieving a sustainable allocation of water resources in river basins. In recent years, with the increase in valuation literature, there has been much controversy in terms of the amount of value and its influencing factors, which has made it difficult to apply these research results to management practices. In this paper, the meta-regression analysis is first applied to the valuation of ecosystem services in the inland river basins of China. The results show that the valuation can be significantly affected by characteristics of the four aspects of valuation research, specifically: object, respondents, measurement method and publications. Among them, the valuation of both the Shiyang River and the Tarim River is significantly higher than that of the Heihe River. The valuation of the upstream portion is significantly higher than that of the middle and lower reaches. The value assessed by the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is not significantly different from that of the choice experiments. However, it is significantly higher than values obtained by other contingent valuation methods. In addition, valuation over time shows a "declining effect" of 2%-3% per year and valuation in journal literature is significantly higher than that in other forms of literature. By using the n-1 data splitting technique, we applied the results of the meta-regression to out-of-sample benefit transfer, evaluated it, and found a median error of 27.12%. Compared with the existing research, the results are in an acceptable range. Therefore, the meta-regression analysis used in this paper is applicable to the valuation of the ecosystem services of the policy sites in the inland river basins of China.

Key words: ecosystem services valuation, meta-regression analysis, n-1 data splitting technique, inland river basins, China

YAN Yan,YAO Liuyang,LANG Liangming,ZHAO Minjuan. Revaluation of ecosystem services in inland river basins of China: Based on meta-regression analysis[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 1040-1057.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 3

Tab. 4

Quality of value transfer

交叉检验技术		基于模型1交互效应模型
交叉检验技术		全样本	黑河流域
效益转移均值		168.25	87.88
效益转移方程的调整R²		0.699	0.552
差异均值(效益转移价值-实际观测价值)		-29.65	-22.08
Pearson相关系数		0.837 (p = 0.000)	0.788 (p = 0.000)
绝对误差	均值	65.71	41.12
绝对误差	中位数	25.62	18.37
百分比误差(%)	均值	45.50	38.01
百分比误差(%)	中位数	30.11	27.12
$ln (y i) = α + β ln (y i) ? + ε i$	$α$ = 0	接受	接受
$ln (y i) = α + β ln (y i) ? + ε i$	$β$ = 1	接受	接受
效益转移样本量		110	60

Tab. 4

Fig. 4

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引用文献	样本	地区	流域	使用方法	调整价值(元)
Ahlheim等^[85]	1	新疆	塔里木河	CVM-二分式	1284.00
Tang等^[86]	1	甘肃	石羊河	CVM-二分式	1031.97
陈东景等^[87]	16	内蒙	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	47.40~75.73
樊辉等^[88]	1	甘肃	石羊河	CE	117.56
樊辉等^[89]	8	甘肃	石羊河	CE	86.73~456.93
李青等^[22]	6	新疆	塔里木河	CVM-支付卡式	1112.61~1807.15
乔旭宁等^[90]	31	新疆	塔里木河	CVM-支付卡式	17.34~199.21
尚海洋^[91]	1	甘肃	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	13.26
石惠春等^[92]	1	甘肃	石羊河	CVM-支付卡式	70.84
唐增^[93]	1	甘肃	黑河	CVM-二分式	1201.21
王小鹏等^[94]	1	甘肃	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	356.02
徐涛等^[95]	6	甘肃、内蒙	黑河	CE	42.08~124.59
徐中民等^[96]	1	内蒙	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	60.67
徐中民等^[97]	3	内蒙	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	44.88~56.14
徐中民等^16]	25	内蒙	黑河	CVM-开放式	29.24~259.48
徐中民等^[17]	2	内蒙	黑河	CE	118.01~283.32
尹小娟等^[98]	1	甘肃	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	78.88
张大鹏等^[99]	1	甘肃	石羊河	CVM-支付卡式	147.43
张志强等^[15]	2	甘肃	黑河	CVM-支付卡式	74.63~79.84
张志强等^[100]	2	甘肃	黑河	CVM-二分式	225.21~252.26

变量	解释	均值	标准误
被解释变量
评估价值	受访者每年户均支付意愿(元),以2016年人民币计	207.68	34.27
解释变量
研究对象特征
供给	评估的服务是否包含供给服务：是=1,否=0	0.92	0.03
调节与维护	评估的服务是否包含调节与维护服务：是=1,否=0	0.88	0.03
文化	评估的服务是否包含文化服务：是=1,否=0	0.87	0.03
石羊河	评估的流域是否为石羊河流域：是=1,否=0	0.11	0.03
塔里木河	评估的流域是否为塔里木河流域：是=1,否=0	0.34	0.05
上游	评估的生态系统是否包含上游：是=1,否=0	0.44	0.05
中游	评估的生态系统是否包含中游：是=1,否=0	0.51	0.05
下游	评估的生态系统是否包含下游：是=1,否=0	0.87	0.03
面积	评估的生态系统面积(万hm²)	12.20	2.23
受访者特征
性别	受访者的男性占比	0.69	0.01
年龄	受访者实际周岁	34.58	0.52
受教育程度	受访者的受教育层次：小学及以下=1;初中=2;高中=3;大学及以上=4	2.89	0.05
家庭收入	受访者的家庭年收入(万元)	2.09	0.20
上游受访者	受访者是否包含上游居民：是=1,否=0	0.89	0.03
中游受访者	受访者是否包含中游居民：是=1,否=0	0.93	0.02
下游受访者	受访者是否包含下游居民：是=1,否=0	0.90	0.03
测度方法特征
支付卡式	评估的方法是否采用支付卡式CVM：是=1,否=0	0.58	0.05
开放式	评估的方法是否采用开放式CVM：是=1,否=0	0.17	0.04
选择实验	评估的方法是否采用选择实验法：是=1,否=0	0.15	0.03
撰写发表特征
期刊	文献是否为公开发表的期刊论文：是=1,否=0	0.94	0.02
发表年份	文献公开发表时间,以2001年为基年	7.54	0.52

变量	模型1		模型2
变量	非标准化系数	标准误	非标准化系数	标准误
常数项	6.382^***	0.809	6.350^***	0.643
研究对象特征
供给	0.551^***	0.187	0.549^***	0.185
调节与维护	0.555^***	0.185	0.554^***	0.183
文化	-0.765^***	0.186	-0.763^***	0.184
石羊河	1.389^**	0.333	0.820^**	0.326
塔里木河	0.819^*	0.524	0.925^*	0.510
上游	7.128^***	1.619	7.224^***	1.575
中游	-5.396^***	1.159	-5.473^***	1.122
下游	-5.661^***	1.139	-5.685^***	1.104
面积	0.023^***	0.005	0.023^***	0.005
受访者特征
性别	0.055	0.517
年龄	-0.003	0.009
受教育程度	0.095	0.080	0.095	0.079
家庭收入	0.301^**	0.116	0.307^***	0.114
上游	-7.475^***	1.610	-7.567^***	1.568
中游	5.290^***	1.154	5.366^***	1.119
下游	5.086^***	1.166	5.164^***	1.130
测度方法特征
支付卡式	-1.485^***	0.159	-1.489^***	0.157
开放式	-1.437^***	0.173	-1.440^***	0.170
选择实验	-0.446	0.329	-0.457	0.323
撰写发表特征
发表年份	-0.252^***	0.070	-0.256^***	0.067
期刊	1.291^***	0.346	1.285^***	0.332
F统计量	26.06		29.44
调整R²	0.836		0.840
样本量	111		111

Revaluation of ecosystem services in inland river basins of China: Based on meta-regression analysis

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