Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (5): 857-874.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201905002

• Climate Change and Surface Processes • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario

MA Danyang1,2,3,YIN Yunhe1(),WU Shaohong1,ZHENG Du1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Henan Province Development and Reform Commission, Zhengzhou 450018, China
  • Received:2018-01-15 Revised:2018-11-25 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-24
  • Contact: YIN Yunhe
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502904);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571043);Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530749)


Changes in the regional differentiation patterns of moisture conditions under the impact of climate change are an important scientific question. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projected the trend in the area of arid/humid climate regions in China for the next hundred years, and analysed the sensitive regions of arid/humid patterns change and its sensitivity of responses to climate change. Results show that the future arid/humid patterns change would be characterized by a significant decrease in the humid region and a significant expansion in the arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the area of sub-humid region would increase by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ warming, the area of shifts between arid/humid climate regions was projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72%. Particularly in the south of the Huaihe River basin, which was mainly affected by the future increase in reference evapotranspiration, the humid region would retreat southward and shift to the sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China would intensify with the acceleration of global warming.

Key words: arid/humid patterns, climate change, sensitivity, aridity index, China