Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (5): 857-874.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201905002
• Climate Change and Surface Processes • Previous Articles Next Articles
MA Danyang1,2,3,YIN Yunhe1(),WU Shaohong1,ZHENG Du1
Received:
2018-01-15
Revised:
2018-11-25
Online:
2019-05-25
Published:
2019-05-24
Contact:
YIN Yunhe
E-mail:yinyh@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.
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Tab. 1
Global climate models used in this study"
模式名称 | 原始空间分辨率(纬度×经度) | 机构 | 国家 |
---|---|---|---|
NorESM1-M | 1.875°×2.5° | Norwegian Climate Centre | 挪威 |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2.8°×2.8° | Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology | 日本 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 1.875°×3.75° | Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace | 法国 |
HadGEM2-ES | 1.25°×1.875° | Met Office Hadley Centre | 英国 |
GFDL-ESM2M | 2.0°×2.5° | Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory | 美国 |
Tab. 3
Area percentages (%) of arid/humid climate regions in China during 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under RCP 8.5, and percentages of area changed (%) relative to the baseline period"
GCMs | 时段 | 湿润区 | 半湿润区 | 半干旱区 | 干旱区 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | 面积 | 变化 | |||||
1981-2010 | 35.76 | 13.94 | 24.61 | 25.69 | ||||||||
NorESM1-M | 2040-2069 | 32.78 | -8.33 | 15.27 | 9.54 | 26.65 | 8.29 | 25.29 | -1.56 | |||
2070-2099 | 31.47 | -12 | 16.26 | 16.64 | 26.04 | 5.81 | 26.23 | 2.1 | ||||
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2040-2069 | 32.13 | -10.15 | 16.24 | 16.5 | 27.62 | 12.23 | 24.01 | -6.54 | |||
2070-2099 | 32.75 | -8.42 | 17.02 | 22.09 | 26.8 | 8.9 | 23.43 | -8.8 | ||||
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 2040-2069 | 35.37 | -1.09 | 16.35 | 17.29 | 22.33 | -9.26 | 25.95 | 1.01 | |||
2070-2099 | 30.18 | -15.6 | 18.87 | 35.37 | 23.14 | -5.97 | 27.81 | 8.25 | ||||
HadGEM2-ES | 2040-2069 | 34.45 | -3.66 | 17.15 | 23.03 | 21.67 | -11.95 | 26.74 | 4.09 | |||
2070-2099 | 33.97 | -5.01 | 18.71 | 34.22 | 21.54 | -12.47 | 25.78 | 0.35 | ||||
GFDL-ESM2M | 2040-2069 | 34.15 | -4.5 | 17.14 | 22.96 | 26.15 | 6.26 | 22.56 | -12.18 | |||
2070-2099 | 30.26 | -15.38 | 20.03 | 43.69 | 26.13 | 6.18 | 23.57 | -8.25 | ||||
多模式平均 | 2040-2069 | 33.64 | -5.93 | 16.21 | 16.28 | 24.95 | 1.38 | 25.19 | -1.95 | |||
2070-2099 | 31.25 | -12.61 | 17.94 | 28.69 | 24.98 | 1.5 | 25.83 | 0.54 |
Tab. 4
Percentages of changed area (%) in humid, sub-humid, semi-arid and arid regions over China at warming levels of 2°C and 4°C relative to the baseline period under RCP8.5"
GCMs | 2 °C | 4 °C | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
湿润 | 半湿润 | 半干旱 | 干旱 | 湿润 | 半湿润 | 半干旱 | 干旱 | |||
NorESM1-M | 扩张区 | 0.47 | 3.61 | 3.26 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 6.28 | 4.84 | 1.10 | |
收缩区 | 3.23 | 2.54 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 5.05 | 4.07 | 2.38 | 1.44 | ||
总变化 | 8.06 | 12.93 | ||||||||
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 扩张区 | 0.87 | 8.05 | 4.24 | 0.13 | 1.64 | 8.33 | 4.92 | 0.54 | |
收缩区 | 6.61 | 2.84 | 1.68 | 2.17 | 6.15 | 4.06 | 2.64 | 2.57 | ||
总变化 | 13.29 | 15.42 | ||||||||
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 扩张区 | 1.59 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 2.55 | 3.17 | 7.00 | 2.63 | 1.61 | |
收缩区 | 2.50 | 2.89 | 3.85 | 0.90 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 5.74 | 2.10 | ||
总变化 | 10.13 | 14.41 | ||||||||
HadGEM2-ES | 扩张区 | 1.23 | 4.97 | 3.35 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 7.81 | 3.41 | 1.58 | |
收缩区 | 3.57 | 3.68 | 2.69 | 0.86 | 4.08 | 3.33 | 5.32 | 1.30 | ||
总变化 | 10.79 | 14.03 | ||||||||
GFDL-ESM2M | 扩张区 | 1.12 | 2.72 | 3.50 | 1.21 | 0.58 | 5.62 | 4.70 | 0.88 | |
收缩区 | 1.87 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 2.64 | 5.08 | 3.05 | 1.34 | 2.32 | ||
总变化 | 8.55 | 11.78 | ||||||||
多模式平均 | 扩张区 | 1.06 | 4.62 | 3.32 | 1.17 | 1.47 | 7.01 | 4.10 | 1.14 | |
收缩区 | 3.56 | 2.80 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 4.66 | 3.63 | 3.48 | 1.94 | ||
总变化 | 10.17 | 13.72 |
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