中国干湿格局对未来高排放情景下气候变化响应的敏感性

doi:10.11821/dlxb201905002

Abstract

Abstract:

Changes in the regional differentiation patterns of moisture conditions under the impact of climate change are an important scientific question. Based on the five global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this paper projected the trend in the area of arid/humid climate regions in China for the next hundred years, and analysed the sensitive regions of arid/humid patterns change and its sensitivity of responses to climate change. Results show that the future arid/humid patterns change would be characterized by a significant decrease in the humid region and a significant expansion in the arid/humid transition zones. In particular, the area of sub-humid region would increase by 28.69% in the long term (2070-2099) relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Under 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ warming, the area of shifts between arid/humid climate regions was projected to increase from 10.17% to 13.72%. Particularly in the south of the Huaihe River basin, which was mainly affected by the future increase in reference evapotranspiration, the humid region would retreat southward and shift to the sub-humid region. In general, the sensitivity of responses of arid/humid patterns to climate change in China would intensify with the acceleration of global warming.

Key words: arid/humid patterns, climate change, sensitivity, aridity index, China

MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.

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模式名称	原始空间分辨率(纬度×经度)	机构	国家
NorESM1-M	1.875°×2.5°	Norwegian Climate Centre	挪威
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2.8°×2.8°	Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology	日本
IPSL-CM5A-LR	1.875°×3.75°	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace	法国
HadGEM2-ES	1.25°×1.875°	Met Office Hadley Centre	英国
GFDL-ESM2M	2.0°×2.5°	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory	美国

干湿区	干湿指数(AI = ET_o/P)	自然潜在植被
湿润区	AI < 1.0	森林
半湿润区	1.0 ≤ AI < 1.5	森林草原(草甸)
半干旱区	1.5 ≤ AI< 4.0	草原(草甸草原,荒漠草原)
干旱区	AI ≥ 4.0	荒漠

GCMs	时段	湿润区			半湿润区			半干旱区			干旱区
GCMs	时段	面积	变化		面积	变化		面积	变化		面积	变化
	1981-2010	35.76			13.94			24.61			25.69
NorESM1-M	2040-2069	32.78	-8.33		15.27	9.54		26.65	8.29		25.29	-1.56
NorESM1-M	2070-2099	31.47	-12		16.26			16.64	26.04			5.81	26.23	2.1
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2040-2069	32.13	-10.15		16.24	16.5		27.62	12.23		24.01	-6.54
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	2070-2099	32.75	-8.42		17.02			22.09	26.8			8.9	23.43	-8.8
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2040-2069	35.37	-1.09		16.35	17.29		22.33	-9.26		25.95	1.01
IPSL-CM5A-LR	2070-2099	30.18	-15.6		18.87			35.37	23.14			-5.97	27.81	8.25
HadGEM2-ES	2040-2069	34.45	-3.66	17.15	23.03	21.67	-11.95	26.74	4.09
HadGEM2-ES	2070-2099	33.97	-5.01	18.71		34.22	21.54		-12.47	25.78		0.35
GFDL-ESM2M	2040-2069	34.15	-4.5	17.14	22.96	26.15	6.26	22.56	-12.18
GFDL-ESM2M	2070-2099	30.26	-15.38	20.03		43.69	26.13		6.18	23.57		-8.25
多模式平均	2040-2069	33.64	-5.93	16.21	16.28	24.95	1.38	25.19	-1.95
多模式平均	2070-2099	31.25	-12.61	17.94		28.69	24.98		1.5	25.83		0.54

GCMs		2 °C					4 °C
GCMs		湿润	半湿润	半干旱	干旱		湿润	半湿润	半干旱	干旱
NorESM1-M	扩张区	0.47	3.61	3.26	0.73		0.72	6.28	4.84	1.10
	收缩区	3.23	2.54	1.19	1.09		5.05	4.07	2.38	1.44
	总变化	8.06					12.93
MIROC-ESM-CHEM	扩张区	0.87	8.05	4.24	0.13		1.64	8.33	4.92	0.54
	收缩区	6.61	2.84	1.68	2.17		6.15		4.06	2.64	2.57
	总变化	13.29					15.42
IPSL-CM5A-LR	扩张区	1.59	3.75	2.25	2.55		3.17	7.00	2.63	1.61
	收缩区	2.50	2.89	3.85	0.90		2.95		3.63	5.74	2.10
	总变化	10.13				14.41
HadGEM2-ES	扩张区	1.23	4.97	3.35	1.24	1.22	7.81	3.41	1.58
	收缩区	3.57	3.68	2.69	0.86	4.08		3.33	5.32	1.30
	总变化	10.79				14.03
GFDL-ESM2M	扩张区	1.12	2.72	3.50	1.21	0.58	5.62	4.70	0.88
	收缩区	1.87	2.04	2.00	2.64	5.08		3.05	1.34	2.32
	总变化	8.55				11.78
多模式平均	扩张区	1.06	4.62	3.32	1.17	1.47	7.01	4.10	1.14
	收缩区	3.56	2.80	2.28	1.53	4.66		3.63	3.48	1.94
	总变化	10.17				13.72

Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario

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