基本公共服务对不同规模城市流动人口居留意愿的影响效应

doi:10.11821/dlxb201904009

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years, urbanization has been attached an increasing importance in China's overall development strategies. Migrants' settlement intention in cities has played an important role in affecting the urbanization trend in China. In such a context, both scholars and policy makers have increasingly attempted to understand the settlement intention of migrants in China. However, few studies so far have examined the role of migrants' access to urban public services in affecting their settlement intention from the perspective of different-sized cities. Based on the data from "the 2016 national dynamic monitoring survey of migrant population" in Shanghai Municipality and Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong provinces, this paper aims to address this issue. We utilize a composite index consisting of three dimensions to measure migrants' settlement intention, namely the long-term residence intention, the hukou transfer intention, and the urban housing purchase intention. We divide urban public services into two types, namely employment-related public services and social (non-employment) public services. The paper then explores the differences in the supply of the two types of urban public services and their impacts on migrants' urban settlement intention of different-sized cities. The results show that the bigger the size of a city is, the greater the likelihood that migrants get access to urban pubic services and the higher their level of urban settlement intention is. Migrants with easier access to the urban public services are more likely to settle down in cities. Through the ordered logistic regression model analysis, we also find that, after controlling for the effects of individual characteristics, family features, and migration characteristics, the two types of urban public services provided by cities for migrants have played a critical role in affecting migrants' urban settlement intention. However, the impacts of access to urban public services on migrants' urban settlement intention are different among different-sized cities. This is reflected in the following facts. First, migrants with easier access to unemployment insurance, medical insurance and housing security are more likely to settle down in cities, but this positive effect is limited to large cities. Second, in all size cities, migrants who are more likely to be covered by resident health records and receive more health education are more likely to settle down in cities. Finally, in small cities, only those covered by resident health records and receiving more health education have great effects on urban settlement intention.

Key words: urban public services, urban settlement intention, different-sized cities, migrants

Liyue LIN, Yu ZHU, Wenqian KE, Jianshun WANG. The impact of migrants' access to urban public services on their urban settlement intentions: A study from the perspective of different-sized cities[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(4): 737-752.

Figures/Tables 6

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 1

Tab. 4

Urban public services of migrants and effects on their urban settlement intentions"

变量	模型1		模型2
变量	系数	标准误	系数		标准误
核心自变量
养老保险(否)	0.246^***	0.042	0.223^**		0.088
失业保险(否)	0.239^***	0.049	0.247^**		0.091
工伤保险(否)	-0.229^***	0.043	-0.277^**		0.089
医疗保险(否)	0.206^***	0.032	0.278^***		0.062
住房公积金(否)	0.251^***	0.034	0.131^**		0.066
劳动合同(否)	-0.096^***	0.026	-0.122^**		0.053
健康档案(否)	0.136^***	0.020	-0.021		0.046
健康教育普及程度	0.137^***	0.014	0.162^***		0.030
控制变量
男(女)	-0.013	0.019	-0.014		0.019
年龄	-0.054^***	0.006	-0.055^***		0.006
年龄平方	0.931^***	0.107	0.939^***		0.107
受教育年限	0.112^***	0.004	0.112^***		0.004
非农业(农业)	0.353^***	0.030	0.357^***		0.030
在婚(单身)	0.346^***	0.034	0.345^***		0.034
本地滞留时间	0.057^***	0.002	0.056^***		0.002
职业类型(白领人员)
商业服务业人员	0.123^***	0.035	0.123^***	0.035
生产运输设备操作人员	-0.316^***	0.036	-0.318^***	0.036
其他人员	0.026	0.060	0.027	0.060
无就业	0.172^***	0.044	0.167^***	0.044
家庭节余类型(家庭节余无)
家庭节余少	0.041	0.028	0.041	0.028
家庭节余中	0.261^***	0.032	0.262^***	0.032
家庭节余多	0.541^***	0.040	0.548^***	0.041
省内流动(跨省流动)	0.546^***	0.022	0.543^***	0.022
流动方式(独自流动)
部分家庭成员流动	-0.019	0.024	-0.019	0.024
举家迁移	0.322^***	0.024	0.322^***	0.024
城市规模(超大城市)
特大城市	-0.537^***	0.029	-0.557^***	0.036
Ⅰ型大城市	-0.515^***	0.027	-0.540^***	0.048
Ⅱ型大城市	-0.835^***	0.030	-0.868^***	0.067
中等城市	-0.822^***	0.041	-0.872^***	0.088
Ⅰ型小城市	-1.070^***	0.065	-1.100^***	0.117
交互项
城市规模×养老保险			0.012	0.031
城市规模×失业保险			0.000	0.036
城市规模×工伤保险			0.019	0.031
城市规模×医疗保险			-0.037	0.025
城市规模×住房公积金			0.056^*	0.026
城市规模×劳动合同签订			0.009	0.018
城市规模×建立健康档案			0.057^***	0.015
城市规模×健康教育普及程度			-0.011	0.010
log pseudo likelihood	-52060.839		-52047.309
pseudo R²	0.097		0.097

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Urban public services of migrants in different-sized cities and effects on their urban settlement intentions"

	超大城市		特大城市		Ⅰ型大城市		Ⅱ型大城市		中等城市		Ⅰ型小城市
	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误
核心自变量
养老保险(否)	0.426^***	0.080	-0.001	0.110	0.168^*	0.075	0.365^**	0.136	0.627^***	0.173	0.594	0.272
失业保险(否)	0.214^**	0.078	0.352^*	0.144	0.372^***	0.107	0.153	0.162	-0.196	0.251	-0.443	0.347
工伤保险(否)	-0.175*	0.081	-0.421^***	0.123	-0.147	0.087	-0.355^***	0.098	0.283	0.214	0.010	0.287
医疗保险(否)	0.105	0.054	0.338^***	0.069	0.171^**	0.066	0.363^**	0.120	-0.525^***	0.164	-0.387	0.293
住房公积金(否)	0.097	0.061	0.431^***	0.073	0.163^**	0.064	0.443^***	0.112	0.324	0.173	0.717	0.301
劳动合同(否)	-0.203^***	0.055	-0.080	0.058	-0.072	0.047	-0.154^*	0.062	0.060	0.103	-0.127	0.198
健康档案(否)	0.034	0.045	0.143^**	0.050	0.246^***	0.035	0.031	0.051	0.221^**	0.076	0.462^**	0.171
健康教育普及程度	0.205^***	0.028	0.049	0.032	0.164^***	0.027	0.108^**	0.038	0.117^*	0.056	0.234^**	0.105
控制变量
男(女)	-0.093^*	0.040	-0.044	0.042	0.022	0.035	0.051	0.046	0.125	0.076	-0.177	0.132
年龄	-0.027^*	0.012	-0.087^***	0.014	-0.044^***	0.013	-0.072^***	0.014	-0.082^***	0.025	-0.009	0.035
年龄平方	0.473^*	0.216	1.430^***	0.241	0.706^**	0.224	1.279^***	0.247	1.367^**	0.459	0.129	0.659
受教育年限	0.114^***	0.008	0.100^***	0.009	0.120^***	0.008	0.106^***	0.010	0.096^***	0.017	0.035	0.028
非农业(农业)	0.421^***	0.054	0.400^***	0.070	0.492^***	0.066	0.172^*	0.087	0.318^*	0.129	0.140	0.209
在婚(单身)	0.219^**	0.069	0.463^***	0.070	0.322^***	0.068	0.205^*	0.080	0.589^***	0.152	0.236	0.215
本地滞留时间	0.067^***	0.003	0.057^***	0.004	0.049^***	0.004	0.054^***	0.005	0.042^***	0.007	0.059^***	0.010
职业类型(白领人员)
商业服务业人员	0.061	0.063	0.005	0.087	0.158^*	0.072	0.189	0.098	0.101	0.143	0.054	0.241
生产运输设备操作人员	-0.405^***	0.068	-0.483^***	0.087	-0.328^***	0.073	-0.116	0.098	-0.272	0.144	-0.006	0.256
其他人员	-0.051	0.102	-0.165	0.125	0.016	0.129	0.086	0.177	0.709^**	0.261	0.564	0.374
无就业	0.151	0.084	-0.075	0.105	0.146	0.087	0.251*	0.117	0.396^*	0.177	0.222	0.285
家庭节余类型(家庭节余无)
家庭节余少	-0.031	0.065	0.094	0.064	0.082	0.050	0.055	0.064	-0.142	0.098	0.022	0.154
家庭节余中	0.332^***	0.071	0.362^***	0.071	0.284^***	0.058	0.128	0.077	-0.081	0.122	-0.076	0.203
家庭节余多	0.686^***	0.080	0.766^***	0.093	0.629^***	0.083	0.136	0.108	0.009	0.167	-0.182	0.289
省内流动(跨省流动)	-0.030	0.064	0.367^***	0.047	0.705^***	0.037	0.711^***	0.052	0.437^***	0.079	0.739^***	0.139
流动方式(独自流动)
部分家庭成员流动	0.023	0.047	-0.064	0.054	-0.052	0.046	-0.023	0.060	0.008	0.101	-0.040	0.162
举家迁移	0.062	0.055	0.317^***	0.055	0.294^***	0.044	0.493^***	0.059	0.283^**	0.092	0.569^***	0.158
log pseudo likelihood	-11671.437		-10420.900		-16104.024		-8726.799		-3291.336		-1160.355
pseudo R²	0.092		0.077		0.093		0.086		0.062		0.068

Tab. 5

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变量名称	变量赋值	均值	标准差
因变量
城市居留意愿强度(Y)	无=0;低=1;中=2;高=3	1.324	1.011
核心自变量
是否参与养老保险(X₁)	否=0;是=1	0.337	0.473
是否参与失业保险(X₂)	否=0;是=1	0.297	0.457
是否参与工伤保险(X₃)	否=0;是=1	0.342	0.474
是否参与医疗保险(X₄)	否=0;是=1	0.235	0.424
是否有住房公积金(X₅)	否=0;是=1	0.143	0.350
劳动合同签订(X₆)	没有=0;有=1	0.413	0.492
是否建立健康档案(X₇)	否=0;是=1	0.311	0.463
健康教育普及程度(X₈)	低=1;中=2;高=3	1.876	0.648
控制变量
性别(X₉)	女=0;男=1	0.517	0.500
年龄(X₁₀)	连续变量	35.113	9.948
年龄平方(X₁₁)	连续变量	7.038	0.566
受教育年限(X₁₂)	连续变量	10.135	3.038
户口性质(X₁₃)	农业=0;非农业=1	0.133	0.340
婚姻状况(X₁₄)	单身=0;在婚=1	0.846	0.361
本地滞留时间(X₁₅)	连续性变量	6.000	5.643
职业类型(X₁₆)	白领人员=1;商业服务业人员=2;生产运输操作人员=3;其他人员=4;无就业=5	2.688	1.125
家庭节余类型(X₁₇)	家庭节余无=1;家庭节余少=2;家庭节余中=3;家庭节余多=4	2.272	0.785
流动范围(X₁₈)	跨省流动=0;省内流动=1	0.316	0.465
流动方式(X₁₉)	独自流动=1;部分家庭成员流动=2;举家迁移=3	1.891	0.829
城市规模(X₂₀)	超大城市=1;特大城市=2;Ⅰ型大城市=3;Ⅱ型大城市=4;中等城市=5;Ⅰ型小城市=6	2.678	1.361

城镇基本公共服务			居留意愿强度
城镇基本公共服务			无	低	中	高
就业关联公共服务	是否参与养老保险	否	31.68	32.01	26.45	9.86
	是否参与养老保险	是	16.20	23.22	39.31	21.27
	是否参与失业保险	否	30.76	31.77	27.43	10.04
	是否参与失业保险	是	16.19	22.58	38.84	22.39
	是否参与工伤保险	否	29.81	31.75	27.94	10.50
	是否参与工伤保险	是	19.60	23.65	36.60	20.15
	是否参与医疗保险	否	29.95	30.94	28.16	10.95
	是否参与医疗保险	是	14.88	22.74	39.58	22.80
	是否有住房公积金	否	28.71	30.70	29.21	11.38
	是否有住房公积金	是	12.53	18.99	40.76	27.72
	是否签订劳动合同	否	26.80	31.16	29.84	12.20
	是否签订劳动合同	是	25.47	25.70	32.58	16.25
非就业关联公共服务	健康教育普及程度	低	30.47	29.41	29.05	11.07
		中	26.17	29.16	30.33	14.34
		高	19.35	27.27	36.44	16.94
	是否建立健康档案	否	29.11	28.92	29.29	12.68
	是否建立健康档案	是	20.21	28.94	34.49	16.36

公共服务		城市规模
公共服务		超大城市	特大城市	Ⅰ型大城市	Ⅱ型大城市	中等城市	Ⅰ型小城市
养老保险参与率		49.31	38.85	30.26	17.4	21.87	20.68
失业保险参与率		41.86	37.15	26.37	15.37	18.74	16.06
工伤保险参与率		46.74	38.97	30.01	23.13	22.03	22.39
医疗保险参与率		30.39	26.98	24.26	13.65	16.24	11.45
住房公积金拥有率		24.85	17.15	9.04	7.3	6.56	8.24
劳动合同签订率		49.09	44.78	36.89	37.14	33.2	27.89
健康档案建档率		30.56	20.35	39.59	30.92	40.37	16.42
健康教育普及程度	低	30.58	33.41	22.76	24.56	29.01	31.64
	中	52.74	54.8	57.9	61.77	55.43	56.61
	高	16.68	11.79	19.34	13.67	15.56	11.75

The impact of migrants' access to urban public services on their urban settlement intentions: A study from the perspective of different-sized cities

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