水系连通变异下荆南三口河系水文干旱识别与特征分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201903012

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the monthly runoff data of five stations in three outlets of Jingjiang river from 1956 to 2016, hydrologic drought characteristic variables were identified by run length theory. The probability distribution functions of drought duration, drought intensity and peak value were selected by Kolmogorow-Smirnov's goodness test. A Copulas function was constructed to deeply study the river hydrologic drought characteristics after the river connectivity variation in this region. The results showed that: (1) The year 1989 was the break point of the river system connectivity in three outlets of Jingjiang river (1956-2016). (2) The hydrologic drought characteristics changed significantly before and after river system connectivity break point. The frequency, duration, intensity and peak value of hydrologic drought increased. (3) The two-dimensional joint recurrence periods under the same single variable recurrence period in the pre-variation era in each site were much longer than those in the post-variation era but the two-dimensional co-occurrences return periods of pre-variation were shorter than those of post-variation. (4) The hydrologic drought duration, drought intensity and peak value in river system of the three outlets in Jingjiang river showed an increasing trend after river system connectivity variation. Under the same single variable recurrence period, the drought duration was longer, the drought intensity was greater and the peak value was higher. (5) The magnitude of hydrologic drought characteristics was different before and after variation of river system connectivity, and the variation ranges of hydrologic drought characteristics were different in different river systems.

Key words: hydrologic drought, drought characteristics, Archimedean Copulas function, river system connectivity variation, three outlets of Jingjiang river

Wen DAI, Dianqing LU, Jingbao LI, Jinfeng WANG, Zengyou ZHAO. Identification of hydrologic drought characteristics under water system connectivity variation in river system of three outlets of Jingjiang river[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 557-571.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Two- and three-dimensional joint return period and co-occurrences return period under the same univariate recurrence period for each hydrologic station after river system connectivity variation

水文站点	时间系列	单变量重现期(a)	联合重现期T_o(a)					同现重现期T_a(a)
水文站点	时间系列	单变量重现期(a)	ds	dp	sp	dsp		ds	dp	sp	dsp
新江口	1956-1989	2	1.34	1.34	1.34	1.10		3.95	3.95	3.96	6.04
		5	2.89	2.89	2.88	2.17		18.80	18.80	18.77	47.06
		10	5.40	5.40	5.40	3.86		66.81	66.81	66.99	275.14
	1990-2016	2	1.19	1.19	1.19	0.91		6.27	6.27	6.26	13.55
		5	2.71	2.71	2.70	1.94		33.15		33.15	33.07	134.92
		10	5.21	5.21	5.21	3.61		124.06		124.06	124.11	898.99
沙道观	1956-1989	2	1.45	1.45	1.45	1.26		3.20	3.20	3.20	4.28
		5	3.01	3.01	3.02	2.34		14.49	14.49		14.54	30.24
		10	5.54	5.54	5.55	4.05	50.80	50.80		50.82	169.15
	1990-2016	2	1.23	3.61	3.58	1.50	5.35		5.17	5.16	8.53
		5	2.74	2.74	2.75	1.99	27.71	27.71		27.80	99.84
		10	5.25	5.25	5.25	3.67	103.55	103.56		103.78	658.33
弥陀寺	1956-1989	2	1.35	1.35	1.35	1.12	3.85	3.85	3.86	5.96
		5	2.88	2.88	2.88	2.16	19.05	19.05		19.07	50.67
		10	5.39	5.39	5.39	3.85	69.51	69.51		69.42	313.55
	1990-2016	2	1.17	1.17	1.17	0.89	6.80		6.80	6.80	16.44
		5	2.68	2.68	2.68	1.90	37.46	37.46		37.40	180.87
		10	5.19	5.19	5.18	3.58	142.94	142.94		142.73	1264.12
康家岗	1956-1989	2	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.32	2.99	2.99	2.99	3.87
		5	3.05	3.05	3.05	2.39	13.86	13.86		13.89	28.71
		10	5.57	5.57	5.57	4.08	49.08	49.09		49.11	164.94
	1990-2016	2	1.30	1.30	1.30	1.06	4.36		4.36	4.36	7.46
		5	2.82	2.82	2.81	2.08	22.49	22.48		22.40	69.71
		10	5.24	5.24	5.26	3.67	101.39	101.40		101.95	696.56
管家铺	1956-1989	2	1.29	1.29	1.29	1.05	4.45	4.45	4.44	7.91
		5	2.80	2.80	2.80	2.06	23.63	23.63		23.53	79.52
		10	5.30	5.30	5.30	3.73	88.50	88.50		88.49	531.82
	1990-2016	2	1.15	1.15	1.15	0.86	7.80		7.80	7.81	22.25
		5	2.65	2.65	2.65	1.87	44.70	44.71		44.55	270.38
		10	5.15	5.15	5.15	3.53	172.38	172.38		172.56	1960.93

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

References 22

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水文站点	统计特征	1956-1989年				1990-2016年
水文站点	统计特征	干旱历时 (月)	干旱强度 (亿m³)	峰值 (亿m³/月)		干旱历时 (月)	干旱强度 (亿m³)	峰值 (亿m³/月)
新江口	最大值	7	186.06	164.30		9	1344.00	407.76
	最小值	1	0.04	0.04		1	0.22	0.18
	平均值	2	53.06	44.31		2	157.59	85.72
	中位数	1	15.76	14.66		2	47.95	40.84
沙道观	最大值	9	105.86	79.79		13	563.02	171.98
	最小值	1	0.39	0.10		1		0.10	0.10
	平均值	3	20.72	18.08		4		78.30	43.93
	中位数	3	0.99	0.79		4		15.07	14.53
弥陀寺	最大值	9	136.55	80.42	11	792.79	259.73
	最小值	1	0.30	0.30	1		0.30	0.25
	平均值	3	26.87	18.08	4		107.62	55.40
	中位数	3	1.24	0.35	3		29.64	29.64
康家岗	最大值	13	24.22	12.55	19	107.91	55.41
	最小值	1	0.07	0.07	1		0.21	0.21
	平均值	6	3.02	1.97	7		21.17	11.25
	中位数	6	0.46	0.07	7		3.02	1.66
管家铺	最大值	8	281.18	211.00	13	978.05	343.88
	最小值	1	0.32	0.32	1		0.05	0.05
	平均值	3	38.11	28.88	4		144.02	75.94
	中位数	3	1.30	0.32	3		17.50	17.50

水文站点	参数	y₀	A	R₀	R²	p值
新江口	干旱历时	0.9967	-2.81	-1.04	0.9995	0.029
	干旱强度	0.9988	-0.68	-0.002	0.9947	0.012
	峰值	1.0097	-0.69	-0.003	0.9955	0.011
沙道观	干旱历时	0.992	-2.49	-0.91	0.9964	0.033
	干旱强度	1.011	-0.79	-0.003	0.9973	0.025
	峰值	1.7861	-1.49	-0.001	0.9899	0.054
弥陀寺	干旱历时	0.9894	-2.6	-0.97	0.9996	0.032
	干旱强度	0.9881	0.77	-0.003	0.9891	0.015
	峰值	1.0494	-0.83	-0.003	0.9922	0.033
康家岗	干旱历时	1.009	-3.18	-1.15	0.9997	0.026
	干旱强度	1.0209	-1.2	-0.005	0.9823	0.193
	峰值	1.0386	-1.35	-0.06	0.9837	0.087
管家铺	干旱历时	1.008	-2.59	-0.94	0.9983	0.029
	干旱强度	1.0105	-0.88	-0.002	0.9964	0.080
	峰值	1.1264	-0.96	-0.002	0.9880	0.011

水文站点	函数类型	参数θ	RMSE	AIC	Bias
新江口	ClaytonCopula	4.7530	0.1495	-103.6713	62.8178
	Gumbel-HougaardCopula	0.1840	0.1504	-103.3249	63.2674
	FrankCopula	8.3250	0.1562	-101.1413	65.7073
	Ali-Mikhail-HaqCopula	361.9520	0.1576	-100.6264	66.2962
沙道观	ClaytonCopula	3.000	0.0425	-176.2557	17.8781
	Gumbel-HougaardCopula	0.1610	0.0439	-174.3854	18.4670
	FrankCopula	5.4890	0.0434	-175.0464	18.2567
	Ali-Mikhail-HaqCopula	999.9990	0.0948	-129.9588	39.8787
弥陀寺	ClaytonCopula	2.245	0.0159	-232.9932	6.6885
	Gumbel-HougaardCopula	0.1850	0.0161	-232.2718	6.7726
	FrankCopula	3.7490	0.0172	-228.4579	7.2354
	Ali-Mikhail-HaqCopula	53.2650	0.1301	-111.6923	54.7280
康家岗	ClaytonCopula	1.9013	0.0249	-207.1084	10.4745
	Gumbel-HougaardCopula	0.2020	0.0308	-194.8370	12.9564
	FrankCopula	3.7050	0.0324	-191.9145	13.6294
	Ali-Mikhail-HaqCopula	999.9990	0.0434	-175.0464	18.2567
管家铺	ClaytonCopula	1.3080	0.0180	-225.8344	7.5719
	Gumbel-HougaardCopula	0.1620	0.0196	-220.9201	8.2450
	FrankCopula	1.9320	0.0185	-224.2532	7.7822
	Ali-Mikhail-HaqCopula	419.3740	0.1351	-109.5160	56.8313

水文站点	时间系列	单变量重现期(a)	干旱历时(月)	干旱强度(亿m³)	峰值(亿m³/月)
新江口	1956-1989	2	2.85	767.10	1477.01
		5	3.77	1231.42	2305.05
		10	4.49	1588.46	2866.35
	1990-2016	2	3.53	1110.37	2097.58
		5	4.48	1580.86	2855.34
		10	5.27	1948.71	3329.89
沙道观	1956-1989	2	2.40	323.71	327.17
		5	3.45	611.25	502.63
		10	4.30	814.45	568.70
	1990-2016	2	3.32	574.88	786.62
		5	4.43	843.37	575.49
		10	5.41	1020.72	606.96
弥陀寺	1956-1989	2	2.47	396.34	343.94
		5	3.49	728.17	574.85
		10	4.34	1008.45	709.86
	1990-2016	2	3.33	675.29	542.87
		5	4.45	1045.17	723.30
		10	5.54	1422.62	814.51
康家岗	1956-1989	2	1.77	207.29	18.60
		5	2.54	376.33	31.83
		10	3.10	493.31	40.45
	1990-2016	2	2.27	317.03	27.27
		5	3.02	476.29	39.23
		10	3.54	580.39	46.41
管家铺	1956-1989	2	2.41	586.99	453.04
		5	3.34	1016.99	712.22
		10	4.00	1319.92	840.59
	1990-2016	2	3.12	918.04	660.47
		5	4.01	1322.99	841.67
		10	4.61	1591.83	920.34

Identification of hydrologic drought characteristics under water system connectivity variation in river system of three outlets of Jingjiang river

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