基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统碳储量评估——以太行山淇河流域为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb201903004

Abstract

Abstract:

The change of regional land use is the main cause for the change of carbon storage in territorial ecosystem, which affects the process of carbon emission and sink. However, previous studies on the impact of future land use change on ecosystem carbon storage considering temporal and spatial scales in the basin are still absent. This study analyzed land use change from 2005 to 2015 in the Qihe River Basin, Taihang mountainous areas, and used Markov-CLUE-S composite models to predict land use pattern of this region in 2025, under three scenarios of natural growth, farmland protection and ecological conservation. Based on the data of land use, we used carbon storage module in InVEST model to evaluate carbon storage of territorial ecosystem during the past 10 years and the future. The results showed that: (1) The carbon storage and carbon density of the ecosystem in the Qihe River Basin in 2015 were 3.16×10⁷ t and 141.9 t/hm², respectively, and they both had decreased by 0.07×10⁷ t and 2.89 t/hm² during the 10 years. (2) From 2005 to 2015, the carbon density was mainly reduced in low altitude areas, and the ratio of the increased areas was similar to that of the reduced areas in the high altitude areas. The decrease of carbon density was mainly caused by expansion of construction land in the middle and lower reaches, and degradation of forestland in the upper reach of Qihe River Basin. (3) From 2015 to 2025, the carbon storage and carbon density of ecosystem will decrease by 0.03×10⁷ t and 1.38 t/hm² respectively in the natural growth scenario, mainly due to the reduction of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas. The farmland conservation scenario will slow down the decrease of carbon storage and carbon density (0.01×10⁷ t and 0.44 t/hm²), mainly due to the enhancement of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas. The ecological protection scenario will increase carbon storage and carbon density significantly to 3.19×10⁷ t and 143.26 t/hm² respectively, mainly appearing in the area above 1100 m. The ecological protection scenario can enhance carbon sequestration capacity, but it cannot effectively control the loss of farmland area. Therefore, the land use planning of the study area can comprehensively consider the ecological protection scenario and farmland conservation scenario, which not only increases carbon sink, but also ensures the farmland quality and food security.

Key words: land use, Markov-CLUE-S composite model, InVEST model, carbon storage, scenario simulation, Qihe River Basin

Wenbo ZHU, Jingjing ZHANG, Yaoping CUI, Hui ZHENG, Lianqi ZHU. Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario: A case study in Qihe River Basin[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 446-459.

Figures/Tables 11

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类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
Q1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.6
Q2	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5
Q3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.5

类型	C_i_-_above	C_i_-_below	C_i_-_soil
耕地	4.02	0.76	105.14
林地	55.74	12.14	174.97
草地	0.39	2.46	96.89
水域	0.04	0	64.03
建设用地	0.01	0	57.63
未利用地	0.01	0	58.89

编码	耕地		林地		草地		水域		建设用地		未利用地
编码	Beta系数	Exp(B)	Beta系数	Exp(B)	Beta系数	Exp(B)	Beta系数	Exp(B)	Beta系数	Exp(B)	Beta系数	Exp(B)
常量	2.1439	8.5329	-4.8852	0.0076	-1.9361	0.1443	-3.7741	0.0230	0.2381	1.2688	-13.1827	0
sc1gr0	0.0007	1.0007	0.0014	1.0014	-0.0014	0.9986	-0.0023	0.9977	-	-	0.0017	1.0017
sc1gr1	-0.1333	0.8752	0.0980	1.1029	0.0388	1.0395	-0.0896	0.9143	-0.0113	0.9888	0.0738	1.0766
sc1gr2	0.0004	1.0004	-0.0002	0.9998	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr3	-0.0150	0.985	0.0105	1.0106	-0.0211	0.9791	0.1532	1.1656	-	-	-	-
sc1gr4	0.0084	1.0085	0.0638	1.0659	-0.0825	0.9209	-0.2295	0.7949	0.1963	1.2169	-	-
sc1gr5	-0.0325	0.9680	0.1033	1.1088	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr6	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr7	-0.0005	0.9995	0.0002	1.0002	0.0004	1.0004	0.0002	1.0002	-0.0090	0.9911	-	-
sc1gr8	-	-	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	-	-
sc1gr9	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-	0.0001	1.0001	-	-	-	-
ROC值	0.810		0.848		0.711		0.843		0.956		0.825

2015年	2005年
2015年	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	总计	转入总计
耕地	47422	3262.5	6655.5	1257.75	1714.5	0	60312.25	12890.25
林地	6169.5	51878.75	8196.75	231.75	67.5	4.5	66548.75	14670
草地	12114	12136.5	53237.5	591.75	299.25	2.25	78381.25	25143.75
水域	2468.25	623.25	762.75	1404.75	155.25	0	5414.25	4009.5
建设用地	4475.25	391.5	555.75	117	6499.25	2.25	12041	5541.75
未利用地	9	13.5	6.75	0	2.25	2	33.5	31.5
总计	72658	68306	69415	3603	8738	11	222731	-
转出总计	25236	16427.25	16177.5	2198.25	2238.75	9	-	62286.75

时段	明显减少(≤ -20 t/hm²)		基本不变(-20~20 t/hm²)		明显增加(≥ 20 t/hm²)
时段	栅格数	比例(%)	栅格数	比例(%)	栅格数	比例(%)
2005-2015年	3419	3.45	95205	96.11	430	0.43
2015-2025年(Q1)	1599	1.61	97340	98.27	115	0.12
2015-2025年(Q2)	595	0.60	97958	98.89	501	0.51
2015-2025年(Q3)	170	0.17	97795	98.73	1089	1.10

Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario: A case study in Qihe River Basin

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类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
Q1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.6
Q2	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5
Q3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.5

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[2]	FAN Zemeng. Spatial identification and scenario simulation of ecotone distribution in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 626-644.
[3]	LONG Hualou, CHEN Kunqiu. Urban-rural integrated development and land use transitions: A perspective of land system science [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 295-309.
[4]	PENG Shiyao, CHEN Shaokuan, XU Qi, NIU Jiaqi. Spatial characteristics of land use based on POI and urban rail transit passenger flow [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 459-470.
[5]	LIAO Liuwen, GAO Xiaolu, LONG Hualou, TANG Lisha, CHEN Kunqiu, MA Enpu. A comparative study of farmland use morphology in plain and mountainous areas based on farmers' land use efficiency [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 471-486.
[6]	YANG Weishi, DAI Erfu, ZHENG Du, DONG Yuxiang, YIN Le, MA Liang, WANG Junxiong, PAN Lihu, QIN Shipeng. Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1983-1995.
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[8]	SONG Xiaoqing, SHEN Yajing, WANG Xiong, LI Xinyi. Vulnerability to biological disasters: A novel field of cultivated land use transition research [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(11): 2362-2379.
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[15]	SONG Xiaoqing,LI Xinyi. Theoretical explanation and case study of regional cultivated land use function transition [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 992-1010.

类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
Q1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.6
Q2	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5
Q3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.5

类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
Q1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.6
Q2	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	0.5
Q3	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	0.5