Abstract:

The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway (CMRHSR) is a strategic move to promote inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure and to build international land transportation corridor among China, Mongolia and Russia. However, a well-planned CMRHSR demands that we accurately clarify the main influencing factors of high-speed railway construction, reveal its influence mechanism and spatial pattern, and formulate targeted prevention and control measures. Therefore, this study analyzes the main factors influencing the construction of the CMRHSR, clarifies its influence mechanism on high-speed railway construction. By establishing an integrated influence index evaluation model (IIIEM), we evaluate the magnitudes of different influencing factors in all research units, and reveal their spatial pattern. We found that economy, society and ecology are the key factors influencing high-speed railway construction. Regions with great economic influence are Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia, and Mongolia due to their underdeveloped economy, slow even negative economic growth, sparsely distributed and declining population, as well as poor transportation, which suggests poor profitability for high-speed railways in the short-term. Regions with great social influence are Mongolia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast due to the high unemployment rate in Mongolia and relatively low government and residential support because of geopolitical and ecological destruction concerns arising from high-speed railway construction, which reduces the feasibility on the construction of high-speed railway. Regions with great ecological influence are Heilongjiang, Buryat Republic, Irkutsk Oblast, and Zabaykalsky Krai due to their favorable ecological environment and rich biodiversity, which suggests a high ecological destruction risk; regions with great disaster influence is Mongolia due to its frequent disasters, which may increase the difficulty of railway construction. Then, according to the distribution of influencing factors, we propose designs for the east and west CMRHSR and policy suggestions to mitigate impacts on high-speed railway construction. Suggestions include establishing innovative cooperation mode of "high-speed rail for resources and markets" to reduce economic influence; strengthening communication and high-tech propaganda to reduce social influence; setting up buffers and applying high-tech engineering techniques to reduce ecological risk. Some measures are proposed to mitigate construction influence such as establishing joint prevention system of three major ecological risks in China, Mongolia and Russia trans-border areas, and enhancing strategic collaboration and promoting economic integration among the three countries.

Key words: China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway construction, influencing factor, mechanism, spatial distribution pattern, policy suggestions