Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (7): 1324-1337.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807011

• Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Assessment on the risk of agricultural drought disaster in the three provinces of Northeast China

YANG Xiaojing1,2,3,4(),XU Zongxue1,2(),ZUO Depeng1,2,CAI Siyang1,2   

  1. 1. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China
    3. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038, China
    4. Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-06-08 Online:2018-07-25 Published:2018-07-13
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China, No.2017YFC1502404;Special Fund for Research on Public Interests, Ministry of Water Resources, No.201401036;IWHR Research&Development Support Program, No.JZ0145B752017, No.JZ0145B582017

Abstract:

Due to the increasing effects of climate change, drought induced economic losses of agricultural production should no longer be ignored. It has become vital to better understand the causes of agricultural drought. This will help to ensure the security of agricultural production, especially in the major grain production regions of China. Few previous studies have focused on multi-year agricultural drought risk in the grain production of Northeast China. The three provinces are crucial to grain production in China. Increased understanding of drought in this agricultural region would benefit the management of agricultural production. This study focuses on the investigation of possible risks that contribute to agricultural drought in the region, based on the natural disaster system theory. A risk assessment model is developed, based on the region, to investigate the spatiotemporal features of agricultural drought and regionalize the potential risks at county and city levels. The contributing factors for agricultural drought potential risk are exposure, vulnerability, resistance capacity, and agricultural drought composite risk, and these factors have been explored separately. Results indicated two important ideas. First, at the province level, the risk of agricultural drought was the highest for Heilongjiang and the lowest for Liaoning, with Jilin falling in between. The disaster risk changed during the year when the fluctuation of exposure was comparatively stable. Drought vulnerability was gradually rising while agricultural drought resistance capacity remained stable from 2010 to 2014. Second, looking at the entire region, the risk of agricultural drought gradually increased from south to north. The severity level, which is the percentage of county and municipal agricultural drought composite risk within each province, was Heilongjiang (75.81%), Jilin (41.30%) and Liaoning (0%). The highest agricultural drought risks were concentrated in the Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain.

Key words: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, drought resistance capacity, regionalization