Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (3): 562-577.

• Land Use •

### Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand based on land intensive use

XIONG Ying1,2,CHEN Yun1,LI Jingzhi1,2,YAN Xiaojing1

1. 1. School of Architecture, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
2. Research Center of Resource Environment and Urban Planning, Changsha 410004, China
• Received:2017-05-22 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-03-20
• Supported by:
[Foundation: National Social Science Foundation of China, No.15BJY051; Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.16ZDB04, No.13YBA016;Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.2017JJ2264;Research Project of Appraisement Committee of Social Sciences Research Achievements of Hunan Province, No.XSP18ZDI031;Research Project of the Department of Land and Resource of Hunan Province, No.2014-13]

Abstract:

Using the system dynamics (SD), the feedback loop of urban construction land between supply and demand and function relationship between index variables are built up to simulate the change trends of the balance of land resources supply and demand in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from 2016 to 2030 in three scenarios, i.e., low intensity mode, medium intensity mode and high intensity mode based on the land resources supply and demand system dynamic model. The simulation suggested that: (1) the construction land scale is still in the expansion state, and the amount of urban construction land is increasing rapidly. However, there are differences in the scale and speed of land use under the three development modes. (2) Under the low intensity mode, the scale of construction land and the quantity of land supply are large, which is prone to the waste of land resources; under the high intensity mode, the supply of construction land is contracted, and the scale of land use is growing slowly and the total scale is small, which is not conducive to the healthy development of new-type urbanization; under the medium intensity mode, the scale of land use and the amount of supply can be adapted to the development of social economy, which can reflect the concept of modern city. (3) The proportion of industrial land to construction land maintains at 15%-21%, in which the proportion under the low intensity mode increases year by year, and slows down and keeps stable under the proper intensity mode and high intensity mode; the proportion of residential land to construction land maintains at 27%-35%, in which the proportion under the low and the medium intensity modes slow down, and the proportion of the high intensity mode keeps at a high level.