Abstract:

For quantitatively explaining the relationship between the vascular plant abundance and habitat factors in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a spatial simulation method has been developed to simulate the distribution of vascular plant species abundance. In this paper, seven datasets covering 37 national nature reserves were used to screen the best correlation equation between the vascular plant abundance and habitat factors in the plateau. These datasets include imformation on the vascular plant type, land cover, mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, topographic relief, patch connectivity and ecological diversity index. The results show that the multiple correlation coefficient between vascular plant abundance and various of habitat factors is 0.94, the mean error validated with the vascular plant species data of 37 national nature reserves is 2.21 types/km², and the distribution of vascular plant species abundance gradually decreases from southeast to northwest, and reduces with increasing altitude except for the desert area of Qaidam Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Furthermore, the changes of vascular plant species abundance in the plateau during the periods from 1981 to 2010 (T0), from 2011-2040 (T2), from 2041to 2070 (T3) and from 2071 to 2100 (T4) were simulated by combining the land cover change in China and the climatic scenarios of CMIP5 RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results from T0 to T4 show that the vascular plant species abundance in the plateau would decrease in the future, the vascular plant species abundance had the biggest change ranges under RCP8.5 scenario and the smallest change ranges under RCP2.6 scenario. In short, dynamic change and interaction of habitat factors directly affect the spatial distribution of vascular plant species abundance on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, vascular plant species abundance, spatial distribution, scenarios simulation