1985年来环渤海地区港口体系位序—规模分布及作用机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201710007

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigated the characteristics of the scale distribution of the Bohai port system and analyzed its mechanism using the rank-size law and the kernel density method. The port cargo throughput and the container throughput over the recent 30 years were used as an indicator. Some results were obtained as follows: (1) The port system in the Bohai Rim has some characteristics of rank-size distribution, but there are significant differences in the rank-size distribution of ports in different stages and on different scales, and the port regionalization is becoming more and more clear. (2) The number of non-scale areas of the rank-size distribution of the port cargo throughput increases first and then decreases, and the single fractal is transformed into a two-fractal structure. Regional port system has experienced four stages: (a) balanced development of ports with high rank order, (b) breakthrough of small and medium ports, (c) differential development of large, medium and small ports, and (d) port integration under the competition and cooperation of hub ports. The change track of the rank-size distribution of the port container throughput has also experienced four stages: (a) external segmentation development, (b) formation of the hub port and the integration of emerging ports, (c) large scale of feeder port, and (d) integration of the container network. They are consistent on the development node. The concentration and decentralization of ports are interwoven. The total goods throughput is decentralized earlier than the container transport, and the dispersion trend of the total throughput is relatively obvious. (3) There are three characteristics of the port rank-size evolution in the Bohai Rim: (a) The dominant role of large ports is obvious under physical and economic geography. (b) The regionalization and competitive pressures force port cooperation and promote port to achieve self-organizing coordination. (c) The output characteristics and the transformation of the energy promote the rapid growth of emerging ports.

Key words: Bohai Rim, port system, rank-size law, kernel density estimation

Jianke GUO, Yuanyue CHEN, Xuhui YU, Haizhuang WANG. Rank-size distribution and mechanism of port system in the Bohai Rim during the past thirty years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10): 1812-1826.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Scaling region of rank-size distribution of port cargo throughput during 1985-2014

年份	港口总数	无标度区一	无标度区二	无标度区三
年份	港口总数	范围;拟合方程;R²	范围;拟合方程;R²	范围;拟合方程;R²
1985年	7	3~7;14.734-5.615 lnk;0.880	-------------------	-------------------
1986年	8	2~8;10.924-2.916 lnk;0.928	-------------------	-------------------
1987年	9	2~9;11.111-3.021 lnk;0.936	-------------------	-------------------
1988年	9	2~9;11.045-2.851 lnk;0.911	-------------------	-------------------
1989年	9	2~9;10.974-2.748 lnk;0.919	-------------------	-------------------
1990年	9	2~9;10.995-2.793 lnk;0.917	-------------------	-------------------
1991年	9	2~9;10.958-2.660 lnk;0.902	-------------------	-------------------
1992年	9	2~7;10.102-1.825 lnk;0.915	-------------------	-------------------
1993年	9	2~7;10.096-1.733 lnk;0.909	-------------------	-------------------
1994年	9	1~4;9.030-0.497 lnk;0.985	6~9;19.310-6.657 lnk;0.941	-------------------
1995年	8	1~4;9.028-0.350 lnk;0.994	5~7;8.373-0.668 lnk;0.917	-------------------
1996年	9	1~4;8.994-0.236 lnk;0.910	5~7;7.824-0.287 lnk;0.999	7~9;22.270-7.747 lnk;0.983
1997年	11	1~4;8.958-0.106 lnk;0.932	5~7;7.677-0.166 lnk;0.997	8~10;8.773-1.168 lnk;0.989
1998年	12	1~4;8.971-0.099 lnk;0.940	6~11;13.232-3.157 lnk;0.911	-------------------
1999年	12	1~4;9.064-0.127 lnk;0.854	6~11;12.330-2.636 lnk;0.913	-------------------
2000年	12	1~4;9.199-0.084 lnk;0.858	5~11;11.651-2.239 lnk;0.965	-------------------
2001年	15	1~4;9.357-0.092 lnk;0.810	5~11;11.744-2.220 lnk;0.936	11~15;40.802-14.352 lnk;0.969
2002年	16	1~4;9.476-0.130 lnk;0.955	6~10;11.120-1.712 lnk;0.919	10~16;27.288-8.589 lnk;0.953
2003年	16	1~4;9.687-0.195 lnk;0.966	5~10;10.752-1.399 lnk;0.943	11~16;31.335-10.111 lnk;0.956
2004年	17	1~4;9.913-0.258 lnk;0.964	5~13;12.401-2.134 lnk;0.913	13~16;49.272-16.577 lnk;0.954
2005年	16	1~4;10.062-0.265 lnk;0.941	5~13;13.392-2.483 lnk;0.912	13~16;51.248-17.254 lnk;0.989
2006年	17	1~4;10.151-0.188 lnk;0.986	6~14;15.734-3.444 lnk;0.931	15~17;20.784-6.034 lnk;0.980
2007年	17	1~4;10.344-0.226 lnk;0.981	6~14;15.958-3.433 lnk;0.923	15~17;26.709-8.129 lnk;0.966
2008年	17	2~8;10.978-0.795 lnk;0.909	8~17;24.179-6.874 lnk;0.943	-------------------
2009年	17	1~7;10.618-0.437 lnk;0.930	7~17;21.682-5.808 lnk;0..941	-------------------
2010年	17	1~7;10.664-0.336 lnk;0.976	7~17;20.231-5.052 lnk;0.951	-------------------
2011年	17	1~7;10.736-0.300 lnk;0.989	7~14;17.637-3.787 lnk;0.964	-------------------
2012年	17	1~7;10.810-0.292 lnk;0.919	7~17;18.735-4.219 lnk;0.959	-------------------
2013年	17	1~4;10.821-0.135 lnk;0.924	6~17;17.118-3.507 lnk;0.955	-------------------
2014年	17	1~4;10.913-0.166 lnk;0.931	7~17;17.641-3.637 lnk;0.962	-------------------

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

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特征	阶段
特征	大型港口主导 (1985-1993年)	新兴港口不断发育 (1994-2000年)	大中小港差异化发展 (2001-2007年)	港口融合发展阶段 (2008-2014年)
分形特征	局部单分形	双分形、三分形	三分形	双分形
集散特征	高度集中分布,但程度逐年弱化。	大港均衡分布明显,中小港以集中化为主,在波动中程度明显弱化。	大港均衡分布明显,但程度有所减弱。中小港呈高度集中分布,在波动中程度明显弱化。	大港均衡分布明显,且不断强化。中小港呈高度集中分布,但程度明显减弱。
核密度	双峰型	双峰型,峰值变高	单峰型左拖尾	单峰型左拖尾
规模分布	港口数稳定,大港口占绝对优势,小港口不发育。	大中型港口依然保持良好发展,小港口涌现初期。	大中小港口分化明显,差异化发展态势显著。	港口大型化特征明显,大港口与中小港呈双层结构

特征	阶段
特征	高度集中化（1990-1995年）	新兴港口发育（1996-2001年）	支线港大型化（2002-2007年）	网络连接下的系统整合（2008-2014年）
分形特征	双分形	单分形	单分形、双分形交替	单分形
集散特征	大港口均衡分布明显,有集中化趋势;新兴港口高度集中分布,波动且趋势不明。	集中分布明显,有分散化趋势。	大港口集中分布明显,有分散化趋势;支线港较为均匀,有集中化态势。	较为集中分布,在波动中仍呈集中化态势。
核密度	多峰型	多峰型	多峰型	双峰型左拖尾
规模分布	集装箱运输高度集中在三大枢纽港,其他港口刚刚起步。	高位序港口集装箱发展较快,新兴港口尚处于发育阶段。	支线港呈现大型化态势,与枢纽港间的联系处于波动之中	枢纽港与支线港间的网络联系加强,港口规模分布呈现初步的联动发展

Rank-size distribution and mechanism of port system in the Bohai Rim during the past thirty years

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年份	港口总数	无标度区一	无标度区二
年份	港口总数	范围;拟合方程;R²	范围;拟合方程;R²
1990年	6	1~3;5.597-0.751 lnk;0.890	4~6;10.937-6.043 lnk;0.984
1991年	6	1~3;5.784-0.646 lnk;0.921	4~6;11.034-5.898 lnk;0.899
1992年	6	1~3;5.928-0.570 lnk;0.890	4~6;8.229-3.893 lnk;0.997
1993年	6	1~3;6.162-0.585 lnk;0.987	4~6;8.520-3.921 lnk;0.900
1994年	6	1~3;6.465-0.650 lnk;0.986	4~6;10.467-4.976 lnk;0.999
1995年	6	1~3;6.613-0.535 lnk;0.819	4~6;11.951-5.707 lnk;0.992
1996年	7	2~7;10.941-5.104 lnk;0.945	-------------------
1997年	7	2~7;10.779-4.755 lnk;0.934	-------------------
1998年	7	2~7;10.782-4.644 lnk;0.938	-------------------
1999年	9	2~9;10.114-3.712 lnk;0.966	-------------------
2000年	9	2~9;10.551-3.800 lnk;0.956	-------------------
2001年	9	2~9;10.285-3.442 lnk;0.973	-------------------
2002年	9	2~6;10.476-3.420 lnk;0.955	6~9;5.407-0.743 lnk;0.974
2003年	10	2~6;10.453-3.144 lnk;0.954	6~10;6.494-1.060 lnk;0.959
2004年	11	2~6;10.711-3.142 lnk;0.960	6~10;6.743-1.012 lnk;0.974
2005年	11	2~10;10.376-2.572 lnk;0.975	-------------------
2006年	11	2~11;10.487-2.433 lnk;0.971	-------------------
2007年	12	2~6;10.668-2.395 lnk;0.945	6~11;9.138-1.633 lnk;0.921
2008年	12	1~11;9.905-1.803 lnk;0.938	-------------------
2009年	12	1~11;9.944-1.798 lnk;0.935	-------------------
2010年	12	1~11;10.993-2.273 lnk;0.987	-------------------
2011年	12	1~11;10.150-1.669 lnk;0.928	-------------------
2012年	13	2~13;11.589-2.427 lnk;0.937	-------------------
2013年	14	2~14;11.863-2.526 lnk;0.923	-------------------
2014年	14	1~14;11.558-2.244 lnk;0.957	-------------------

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