地理学报

Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (8): 1486-1507.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201708012

• Transport Logistics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Predictive analysis of passenger and goods flow of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel

Dongqi SUN1(), Dadao LU1(), Zhenbo WANG1, Jianbin XU2, Xiaoyan SHEN3, Xixi WANG3, Zedong WANG3, Zhongchao SUN3, Fenghua SUN4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Geography and Planning, SunYat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China
    3. School of Resources & Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China
    4. Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-01-16 Revised:2017-05-09 Online:2017-08-20 Published:2017-08-20
  • Supported by:
    Academician Consultation Project of CAS, No.Y6R60090FE;National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, No.41171096;National Social Science Foundation of China, No.2007@ZH005;The National Soft Science Research Program, No.2700ZXQ4D166

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Abstract:

On the basis of collecting and sorting related statistical yearbook data and actual survey data of 26 years during 1990-2015, 26 indicators are selected. Guided by the economic geography and communication geography and with the axis of the regional population, economic deveoplment and urbanization trend, the prediction is made for passengers, goods and traffic flow of the Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel (hereafter referred to as "BSCC") for the future. The prediction covers province, nation and world (international trade) involved and gives high, middle and low solution respectively. Seven characteristic years are set due to a long predicting time (2017-2050). With the technology platform of EXCEL 2013, SPSS 22.0, ArcGIS 10.2, MATLABR2011b, etc., the prediction is made by organic combination of multiple methods, such as the time series curve estimation method, building passenger, goods and traffic flow exponential model, building GRNN model, traffic accessibility research method, etc., based on which the following analysis is made: (1) passengers, goods and traffic flow of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (2) passengers, goods and traffic flow structure of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (3) transportation capacity of both passengers and goods of the BSCC during 2020-2050; (4) feasibility and infeasibility of the BSCC construction; (5) future economic benefit of the BSCC construction. The prediction result shows that "catastrophic losses resulting from the extraordinarily large-scale project" will occur if the BSCC is to be built before 2050. In that case, it will also have devastating effects on sea transportation of the BSCC and cause huge losses. There is no need to build BSCC before 2040. Whether we build it in 2050 or not depends on actual social and economic development conditions before and after 2050.

Key words: Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel, passenger and cargo traffic, forecast analysis, time series forecasting method, the index model of passenger and cargo flow, GRNN model, traffic accessibility