Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (7): 1248-1260.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201707010

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impacts of projected climate change on agricultural climate resources in Northeast China

Zheng CHU1, Jianping GUO1,2(), Junfang ZHAO2   

  1. 1. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-10-12 Revised:2017-02-25 Online:2017-08-07 Published:2017-08-08

Abstract:

Aiming at examining the responses of agro-climate resource to climate change in Northeast China, this study explores the 1960-2099 daily climatic data of regional model simulation in RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 scenarios, assimilated with 1961-2010 ground observations from 91 meteorological stations. Agroclimate heat resources and water resources in scenarios are analyzed and the findings are obtained as follows: (1) The annual mean temperature decreases from south to north and is projected to increase across the study region. Obviously, the temperature is higher in the high emission scenario. The annual mean temperature of the baseline, RCP_4.5 and RCP_8.5 is 7.70 ℃, 9.67 ℃ and 10.66 ℃, respectively. The changes of other agro-climate heat resources are similar with those of the temperature. For example, the start date ≥10 ℃ has advanced by 3 d and 4 d; the first frost date has delayed by 2 d and 6 d; the growing season is prolonged by 4 d and 10 d; and the accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ has increased by 400 ℃·d and 700 ℃·d, respectively. In addition, water resources have a slight increase. (2) The average temperature growth rate of climatic trendency is 0.35 ℃/10 a historically. The highest increasing rate of annual average temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario is 0.48 ℃/10a in the high emission scenario, compared with 0.19 ℃/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario in the low emission scenario. By the end of this century, the warming trend in RCP_8.5 would be faster than that in RCP_4.5 especially in the north of the study region. Other agro-climate heat resources have similar trends with the temperature, but their spatial distribution varies in different parts of the region. Precipitation in growing season is projected to increase although the trend is not statistically significant and has distinct inter-annual variations. Precipitation increases in the east part of the study region, while it decreases in the west. Overall Northeast China is getting warmer and wetter in the future with increased heat resources. However, the imbalance with water resources may have negative impacts on agricultural productivities.

Key words: climate change, agro-climate resources, Northeast China, data assimilation