20世纪80年代以来全球耕地变化的基本特征及空间格局

doi:10.11821/dlxb201707009

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the global land use / cover data from 1982 to 2011(CG-LTDR), this paper analyzes the characteristics and spatial patterns of cultivated land change since the 1980s. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Since the 1980s, the world's arable land has increased by 528.768×10⁴ km² with a rate of 7.920×10⁴ km²/a, although the trend is not statistically significant. The world's arable land grew fastest in the 1980s. Areas of cultivated land in North America, South America and Oceania increased by 170. 854×10⁴ km², 107. 890×10⁴ km² and 186. 492×10⁴ km², respectively since the 1980s, showing significant trends with rates of 7.236×10⁴ km²/a, 2.780×10⁴ km²/a and 3.758×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. Areas in Asia, Europe and Africa decreased by 23.769×10⁴, 4.035×10⁴, 86.76×10⁴ km², with rates of -5.641×10⁴ km²/a, -0.813×10⁴ km²/a and -0. 595×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. Only Asia revealed a significant reduction trend. (2) Since the 1980s, the increased cultivated land in the world has been mainly converted from grasslands and forests, accounting for 53.536% and 26.148%, respectively. Newly cultivated land was mostly distributed in southern and central Africa, eastern and northern Australia, southeastern South America, central US, Alaska, central Canada, western Russia, northern Finland and northern Mongolia. Among these regions, Botswana in southern Africa has the highest proportion of increased arable land, an increase of 80%-90%. (3) Since the 1980s, a total of 1071.946×10⁴ km² of arable land has been converted to other types of land, mostly grasslands and forests that account for 57.482% and 36.000%, respectively. Global reduction of arable land was mainly found in southern and central Africa, central South America, southern Russia and southern Europe (Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary). Among these regions, southern Africa experienced the highest reduction of 60%. (4) Cultivated lands in all continents had a trend of expanding to high latitudes, and most countries in the world are characterized by expansion of newly cultivated land and reduction of cultivated land in the earlier period.

Key words: cultivated land, spatiotemporal characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns, global land use change

Lijuan ZHANG, Ziyan YAO, Shihao TANG, Xiaxiang LI, Tiantian HAO. Spatiotemporal characteristics and patterns of the global cultivated land since the 1980s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(7): 1235-1247.

Figures/Tables 13

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Tab. 2

Tab. 3

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Tab. 5

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Fig. 7

Tab. 6

Comparison with the results of previous studies

	已有研究结果	本文研究结果
1	谢高地等认为1985年以前全球耕地呈增加趋势,1985-1995年间耕地呈减少趋势^[26]。	1985-1995年全球耕地面积变化特征,结论为不显著减少趋势,减少速率为19.772×10⁴ km²/a。
2	Lepers等得出1981-1990年全球耕地在各个大洲均有增加,增加的主要区域位于亚洲的东南部、孟加拉国印度河流域、中东和中亚地区、美国的大平原地区^[18]。	对全球1982-1990年耕地面积进行分析,得出全球各大洲耕地在此期间除亚洲和南美洲呈增加趋势外,其他各大洲均呈减少趋势。增加的区域主要位于亚洲东南部,撒哈拉以南的非洲,减少的区域主要集中在非洲赤道附近和美国东南部及中国东部（图6）。
3	Waisanen等认为1982-1992年美国耕地面积呈增加趋势^[28]。	1982-1992年美国耕地面积变化,认为呈不显著增加趋势,主要在中西部增加（图7a）。
4	杜国明等认为巴西1980-2005年耕地增加较为剧烈,除北部热带雨林地区,其他地区耕地均有增加^[29]。	巴西1980-2005年耕地面积变化,认为1980-2005年巴西耕地面积呈增加趋势,主要由草地和林地转化（图7b）。
5	Dewan等认为孟加拉国1960-2005年其耕地面积一直呈减少趋势,主要转化为了林地和建设用地^[30]。	1982-2005年孟加拉国的耕地面积变化,认为耕地面积呈极显著减少趋势,主要在西南部地方减少,主要转化为草地、林地（图7c）。
6	Abbas等研究认为1975-2005年尼日利亚耕地向南部森林区扩展,同时原有耕地减少^[27]。	1982-2005年尼日利亚耕地向南部森林区扩张了约214197.544 km²,原有耕地减少了187354.798 km²（图7d）。
7	Müller等分析认为阿尔巴尼亚东南部在1988-2003年,很多耕地被遗弃^[31]	阿尔巴尼亚1988-2003年耕地面积呈显著减少趋势,减少的耕地转化为了草地。
8	Ramankutty等认为20世纪90年代初全球耕地大约为1800×10⁴ km²,空间上主要集中在欧亚地区,其次是北美洲和非洲^[15]。	本文研究认为20世纪90年代初全球耕地为1845.761×10⁴ km²,空间上主要分布在欧洲南部、蒙古东北部、中国东部、美国五大湖附近及密西西比河流域、非洲的撒哈拉以南及刚果和刚果民主共和国南部。
9	Ramankutty等认为1700-1992年近3个世纪以来,整体上呈增加趋势,1700年后耕地扩张最快的地区发生在欧洲,其次是北美洲和南美洲^[16]。	本文分析了1982-2011年全球耕地时空变化,时间上较新,时间跨度较短,同时认为近30年耕地扩张最快的地区发生在大洋洲。
10	Goldewijk等分析了1700-1990年近300年的全球耕地数据,得出近3个世纪以来,全球耕地面积增加了5.5倍^[12]。	本文分析1982-2011年全球耕地面积变化,得出近30年来全球耕地面积增加了1.273倍。

Tab. 6

References 31

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全球土地利用数据集	ESA-GlobCover	FAO粮农数据库	NASA-MCD12Q1
Kappa 值	0.6147	0.7104	0.8184
一致性	高度的一致性	高度的一致性	几乎完全一致

	年代	亚洲	欧洲	非洲	北美洲	南美洲	大洋洲	全球
耕地面积 (10⁴ km²)	1982年	710.016	287.521	444.869	280.407	118.850	89.331	1939.573
	2011年	686.247	283.486	531.629	451.261	226.740	275.823	2468.340
	年均耕地	749.801	267.166	494.680	333.512	167.752	158.975	2171.886
	2011-1982年	-23.769	-4.035	86.760	170.854	107.89	186.492	528.767
倾向率	1982-2011年	-5.641*	-0.813	-0.595	7.236**	2.780*	3.758*	7.920
	1982-1989年	2.382	-1.136	9.812	-2.277	10.080	2.226	20.650
	1990-1999年	-1.335	-8.769*	-9.050	-6.821	-3.073	-0.209	-29.780
	2000-2011年	-0.266	0.702	-0.320	2.057	1.297	2.039	5.553

	亚洲	欧洲	非洲	北美洲	南美洲	大洋洲	全球
转入面积	325.826	135.203	407.844	299.867	189.500	230.331	1599.753
转出面积	349.725	139.325	321.317	129.452	81.599	43.089	1071.946

	转入面积(km²)
	亚洲	欧洲	非洲	北美洲	南美洲	大洋洲	全球
林地	587 044.033	538 977.272	497 117.371	1 295 193.574	1 049 514.128	210 610.092	4 183 030.965
草地	1 685 071.620	700 578.490	2 693 786.908	1 527 020.934	768 167.250	1 168 947.585	8 564 519.048
建设用地	8 745.380	3 418.037	852.623	2 675.515	1 455.492	125.654	17 290.898
湿地	53 106.836	29 938.381	24 623.822	27 727.065	16 697.013	18 878.816	231 618.103
水域	12 878.212	4 244.370	4 824.171	7 055.778	3 649.667	3 989.419	57 099.131
未利用地	911 410.987	74 871.195	857 230.925	138 995.122	55 494.096	900 758.834	2 943 976.114
	转入比例(%)
林地	18.017	39.864	12.189	43.192	55.384	9.144	26.148
草地	51.717	51.817	66.050	50.923	40.537	50.751	53.536
建设用地	0.268	0.253	0.021	0.089	0.077	0.005	0.108
湿地	1.630	2.214	0.604	0.925	0.881	0.820	1.448
水域	0.395	0.314	0.118	0.235	0.193	0.173	0.357
未利用地	27.972	5.538	21.019	4.635	2.928	39.107	18.403

	转出面积(km²)
	亚洲	欧洲	非洲	北美洲	南美洲	大洋洲	全球
林地	1 217 276.742	300 777.368	1 410 706.162	399 259.025	341 994.955	141 504.896	3 859 019.347
草地	2 017 539.664	1 065 004.971	1 647 566.868	788 780.992	373 549.898	258 183.988	6 161 722.976
建设用地	15 804.035	10 816.968	1 370.660	4 030.622	723.119	151.457	33 117.082
湿地	57 448.359	6 470.664	17 104.849	25 935.501	41 131.877	6 184.790	166 437.848
水域	19 388.005	2 573.700	7 587.074	8 548.657	15 530.140	6 160.882	62 663.411
未利用地	169 794.097	7 604.133	128 833.594	67 964.712	43 064.184	18 703.268	436 504.043
	转出比例(%)
林地	34.807	21.588	43.904	30.842	41.911	32.840	36.000
草地	57.689	76.440	51.275	60.932	45.779	59.919	57.482
建设用地	0.452	0.776	0.043	0.311	0.089	0.035	0.309
湿地	1.643	0.464	0.532	2.003	5.041	1.435	1.553
水域	0.554	0.185	0.236	0.660	1.903	1.430	0.585
未利用地	4.855	0.546	4.010	5.250	5.278	4.341	4.072

Spatiotemporal characteristics and patterns of the global cultivated land since the 1980s

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