政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应

doi:10.11821/dlxb201706010

Abstract

Abstract:

Agricultural production will be confronted with more serious challenges under climate change. Understanding households' adaptive behaviors and the influence of government policies on them is the fundamental step to improve relevant policies for enhancing farmers' ability of adaptation against drought. The econometrics method is used in this study to evaluate the farmers’ adaptive behaviors and their influencing factors, especially the regulation of government policies, like early-warning and policy supports, based on a household and village survey in three provinces of the North China Plain (NCP). The results show that: (1) Most of households are apt to take adaptive measures when facing drought; and the more serious droughts are, the more the adaption measures will be taken. (2) The adaptation behaviors of farmers are affected by the regulation of government policies. The enthusiasm to take adaptations of households can be enhanced obviously by the governments' early-warning information and relevant policy supports, especially when the warning information is released by multiple channels and the subsides or multiple supports are provided by the township government and the village. However, most of the households have no support from governments at all levels. Besides, TV as the present main channel has very little effect on the farmers' hehaviors. (3) Adaptive behaviors vary along with households' characteristics. Farmers who live in irrigated areas, and who have more agricultural members in the family with larger cultivated land block acreage, are more inclined to take adaptive measures. These findings can provide references for the government to take measures to combat drought.

Key words: governmental regulation, drought, household, response behavior, North China Plain

Xiaoyun LI, Yu YANG, Yi LIU, Hui LIU. Effect of governmental regulation on farmers' response behavior of drought resistance: An empirical study of North China Plain[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1078-1090.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

The regression models of households’ adaptive measures

自变量	模型一			模型二			模型三
自变量	系数		Exp(B)		系数	Exp(B)	系数	Exp(B)
内部因素
家里总人口数(人)	-0.063	0.939		-0.061	0.941		-0.062	0.940
户主年龄(岁)	-0.01	0.99		-0.01	0.99		-0.012	0.988
户主受教育程度	0.028	1.028		0.026	1.026		0.018	1.018
家庭耕地面积(亩)	-0.051^**	0.951		-0.049^**	0.953		-0.040^*	0.961
耕地细碎程度(亩/块)	-0.119^**	0.888		-0.119^**	0.887		-0.082	0.922
住宅总价值(万元)	0.004	1.004		0.004	1.004		0.006	1.006
是否参加合作组织(是=1,否=0)	0.221	1.247		0.184	1.202		0.023	1.023
亲戚中有无村干部(有=1,无=0)	-0.329^*	0.719		-0.344^*	0.709		-0.523^**	0.593
外部因素
地形(平原=1,非平原=0)	19.523	3.012		19.595	3.236		19.538	3.056
是否在灌区(是=1,否=0)	0.727^***	2.07		0.699^***	2.012		0.809^***	2.246
平均地下水位(m)	0.001	1.001		0.002	1.002		0.003	1.003
是否灾害年(是=1,否=0)	0.410^**	1.507		0.412^**	1.51		0.426^**	1.532
政策因素
是否获预警信息(是=1,否=0)	0.412^**	1.51
仅灾前获得				0.076	1.079
仅灾后获得				0.216	1.241
灾前、灾后均获得				0.615^***	1.85
仅电视一种途径							-0.342	0.711
仅电视外的一种途径							0.499	1.646
两种及以上途径							0.491^**	1.633
村是否组织抗灾(是=1,否=0)	0.326^*	1.386		0.321^*	1.379		0.223	1.250
是否获政府支持(是=1,否=0)	0.374^*	1.454
乡镇及以下机构支持				0.667^**	1.949
仅技术指导							0.197	1.218
仅资金补贴							2.057^**	7.821
仅物资补贴							0.019	1.019
仅人力支持							0.744	2.105
两种及以上支持							1.100	3.003
乡镇以上机构支持				0.308	1.361
常量	1.025	2.786		1.043	2.838		1.400^**	4.057
预测正确率(%)	79.10			79.20			78.80
自由度	15			18			21
样本数	1070			1070			936

Tab. 5

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采取措施种类数		正常年		灾害年
采取措施种类数		采取农户数	占比(%)	采取农户数	占比(%)
不采取		133	24.63	93	17.22
采取,其中：		407	75.37	447	82.78
	1种措施	263	48.70	185	34.26
	2种措施	112	20.74	112	20.74
	3种措施	29	5.37	95	17.59
	4种措施	3	0.56	42	7.78
	5种措施	0	0.00	13	2.41
合计		540	100.00	540	100.00
方差分析	F值	9.011
方差分析	Sig.	0.003

是否获取预警信息		灾前					灾中、灾后
		正常年			灾害年		正常年		灾害年
		农户数		占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)
否		292	65.32	291	56.84		282	63.66	286	55.75
是		155	34.68	221	43.16		161	36.34	227	44.25
获取信息途径数	1种	132	29.53	185			36.13	140	31.60	188	36.65
	2种	21	4.70	33	6.45		19	4.29	34	6.63
	3种	1	0.22	2	0.39		1	0.23	4	0.78
	4种	1	0.22	1	0.20		1	0.23	1	0.19
合计		447	100	512	100	443	100	513	100

是否获得机构支持	采取措施的农户比例(%)
是否获得机构支持	正常年	灾害年
未获得	72.17	81.39
获得	85.07	86.86
技术指导	100.00	87.50
资金补贴	85.29	86.96
物资补贴	83.02	88.00
人力支持	100.00	100.00

Effect of governmental regulation on farmers' response behavior of drought resistance: An empirical study of North China Plain

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Figures/Tables 9

References 38

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是否得到支持	正常年			灾害年
是否得到支持	样本数		占比(%)	样本数	占比(%)
否	406	76		403	75
是,提供支持的机构：	129	24		131	25
村	32	23.40		37	26.60
乡镇	39	28.50		37	26.60
乡镇以上	63	46.00		62	44.60
其他	3	2.20		3	2.20
支持农户次合计	137	100		139	100
总样本数	535	100		534	100

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