中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系

doi:10.11821/dlxb201706009

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper establishes a model of coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes, and preliminarily discusses the coupling process of the changes of grain yield and agricultural labor proportion at county level. Using county-level statistical data of farmland and agricultural labor in 1991, 2000 and 2010, two coefficients were developed to analyze the coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes, one is grain-labor elasticity coefficient (GLEC), and the other is agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient (ALTEC). Results showed that: (1) During the process of agricultural development transformation in China, different types of coupling relationship modes between grain yield and agricultural labor changes coexist at the same time. During 1991-2010, the number of counties with three different coupling modes, i.e., grain yield increasing and agricultural labor decreasing, both increasing of grain yield and agricultural labor and both decreasing of grain yield and agricultural labor, account for 48.85%, 29.11% and 19.74% of the total counties in the study area, respectively. Interestingly, the coupling mode of grain yield increasing and agricultural labor decreasing is mainly found in the traditional farming area of China. The coupling mode of both increasing of grain yield and agricultural labor is located in the pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotone in the underdeveloped western China, while the coupling mode of both decreasing of grain yield and agricultural labor is distributed in the areas experiencing rapid agricultural development transition, especially in the developed southeastern coastal China. (2) From 1991 to 2010, the number of counties which experienced a decline of agricultural labor proportion was 1961, among which 1452 counties with an increasing of grain yield, accounting for 72.38% of the total number of counties. The coupling curve between grain yield and agricultural labor proportion changes showed a stepped fluctuation, and the discrete trend of the coupling relationship was continually strengthened. (3) The mean of GLEC and ALTEC increased from -0.25 and -2.93 during 1991-2000 to -0.16 and -1.78 during 2000-2010, respectively. The changes of GLEC and ALTEC illustrated that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yield is diminishing gradually. (4) "Hu Huanyong Line" is a significant boundary presenting the coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes.

Key words: grain yield, agricultural labor, grain-labor elasticity coefficient, agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient, Hu Huanyong Line, coupling relationship

Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Yingnan ZHANG, Shuangshuang TU. Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1063-1077.

Figures/Tables 9

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Tab. 1

Classification statistics of agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient at county level during 1991-2010

	$ALTEC$ 值	1991-2000年(%)	2000-2010年(%)	1991-2010年(%)
$ALPR < 0$	$ALTEC ≥ 1$	14.66(294)	18.05(362)	10.72(215)
	$0 ≤ ALTEC < 1$	11.32(227)	13.11(263)	14.66(294)
	$- 1 ≤ ALTEC < 0$	15.55(312)	18.30(367)	20.14(404)
	$ALTEC < - 1$	49.65(996)	44.57(894)	52.24(1048)
$ALPR > 0$	$ALTEC ≥ 1$	5.53(111)	3.49(70)	1.94(39)
	$0 ≤ ALTEC < 1$	0.35(7)	0.25(5)	0.25(6)
	$- 1 ≤ ALTEC < 0$	0.40(8)	0.10(2)	0.00(0)
	$ALTEC < - 1$	2.54(51)	2.14(43)	0.00(0)

Tab. 1

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Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China

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