长江经济带人口流动对区域经济差异的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb201702002

Abstract

Abstract:

With the implementation and deepening of household registration reform and liberalizing of factors flow under market economy system, the imbalance in regional development is becoming increasingly complex. Thus it is significant to conduct research on the impact of population flow on regional economic disparities. This paper selected the Yangtze River economic belt as a case study, and used population flow ratio (to divide the difference between resident population and registered population by resident population) to represent the migration size. Based on the county-level data of registered population and resident population in China's fourth, fifth and sixth censuses, we analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of economic disparities and population flow, and explored population mobility effect on economic inequalities in the Yangtze River economic belt. With the Theil index, spatial analysis and regression modeling methods, the following conclusions could be drawn: (1) The economic disparities based on resident population were smaller than those besed on registered population. The former was shrinking with the elapse of time, while the latter was expanding. (2) The eastern zone showed the megalopolis characteristic and a center-periphery spatial economic structure, with the spatial aggregation of developed counties in the Yangtze River Delta as the planar core area, while there were several sub-center-periphery structures with center city as point core area in the central and western zones. (3) The impact of population flow on economic growth was significantly different between inflow and outflow counties. The increase of population flow rate promoted the economic growth of inflow areas remarkably in 2000 and 2010. While it retarded the economic growth of outflow areas in 2000, and enhanced it slowly in 2010. The county economic gaps in the Yangtze River economic belt was widening. (4) The impact of population flow on regional economy disparities was prominently weakened with the provincial and regional factors taken into account. (5) Population flow was the most prominent factor which affects the regional economic disparities, followed by economic structure embodied in the level of industrialization. The other factors were human capital, fiscal decentralization and regional strategy. Emphasizing labor return, promoting family migration and speeding up industrialization are key policies to prevent and even narrow the regional economic gaps in outflow areas.

Key words: population flow, regional economic disparity, registered population, resident population, Yangtze River economic belt

Jingjing LI, Changhong MIAO. Impact of population flow on regional economic disparities in the Yangtze River economic belt[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(2): 197-212.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 34

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	类型	1990年			2000年			2010年
	类型	(个)		(%)		(个)	(%)	(个)	(%)
户籍口径	发达	125	14.43		140	16.17		142	16.40
	较发达	156	18.01		110	12.70		100	11.55
	欠发达	418	48.27		339	39.15		321	37.07
	不发达	167	19.28		277	31.99		303	34.99
常住口径	发达	124	14.32		149	17.21		149	17.21
	较发达	176	20.32		110	12.70		133	15.36
	欠发达	416	48.04		362	41.80		360	41.57
	不发达	150	17.32		245	28.29		224	25.87
流动人口比率(%)	< -10	14	1.62		142	16.40		425	49.08
	-10~0	657	75.87		482	55.66		245	28.29
	0~10	185	21.36		194	22.40		105	12.12
	> 10	10	1.15		48	5.54		91	10.51

模型	对数指标模型(4)					比例指标模型(5)
时期	2000年			2010年		2000年		2010年
类型	流入地		流出地	流入地	流出地	流入地	流出地	流入地	流出地
变量	ln(PGDP)	ln(PGDP)	ln(PGDP)	ln(PGDP)		RPGDP	RPGDP	RPGDP	RPGDP
\|MP\|	1.23^***	-0.23	1.39^***	0.39^***		4.09^***	-0.24	2.53^***	0.13^**
	[2.69]	[-0.87]	[6.63]	[4.77]		[3.50]	[-1.25]	[5.22]	[2.15]
HC	0.19^***	0.32^***	0.17^***	0.21^***		0.12^***	0.19^***	0.17^***	0.10^***
	[8.52]	[18.57]	[6.79]	[12.28]		[3.21]	[17.02]	[4.57]	[8.73]
Secondary	1.86^***	1.45^***	2.70^***	1.60^***		2.48^***	0.64^***	2.74^***	0.83^***
	[9.89]	[11.76]	[13.11]	[15.85]		[7.21]	[6.73]	[8.89]	[11.70]
ln(Finance)	0.12^***	0.23^***	0.23^***	0.18^***
	[2.94]	[6.44]	[4.28]	[6.13]
ln(FAI)	0.12^***	0.06^***	0.02	0.18^***
	[4.51]	[3.64]	[0.48]	[9.21]
Dec						0.17^**	0.40^***	0.33^***	0.13^***
						[2.48]	[6.88]	[4.60]	[5.00]
Strategy						0.18^***	0.14^***	0.07	0.38^***
						[3.96]	[2.81]	[1.15]	[11.08]
Constant	5.48^***	4.59^***	5.73^***	4.98^***		-0.93^***	-0.97^***	-1.97^***	-0.72^***
	[29.40]	[28.06]	[16.22]	[23.93]		[-4.70]	[-12.01]	[-6.71]	[-7.86]
样本量	289	577	188	678		289	577	188	678
R²	0.76	0.61	0.81	0.66		0.57	0.48	0.71	0.55

类型	流入地					流出地
模型层次	一层模型 Level_1		二层模型 Level_2		三层模型 Level_3	一层模型 Level_1	二层模型 Level_2		三层模型 Level_3
\|MP\|	3.18^***	2.82^**		2.90^**		-0.52^***	-0.22		-0.35
	[6.34]	[2.52]		[2.13]		[-5.54]	[-0.49]		[-1.10]
HC	0.20^***	0.22^***		0.19^***		0.06^***	0.10^***		0.10^***
	[6.29]	[7.72]		[6.19]		[5.09]	[8.64]		[8.64]
Secondary	0.92^***	0.67^***		0.66^***		1.38^***	1.34^***		1.34^***
	[5.08]	[4.32]		[4.44]		[14.67]	[18.16]		[17.92]
Dec	0.15^***	0.06		0.14		-0.02	0.25^***		0.31^**
	[2.75]	[1.21]		[1.44]		[-0.96]	[3.04]		[2.13]
Strategy	0.20^***	0.18^***		0.14^***		0.21^***	0.09^***		0.14^***
	[5.00]	[4.92]		[4.00]		[7.61]	[3.83]		[6.14]
Constant	-0.99^***	-0.96^***		-0.71^***		-0.19^**	-0.54^***		-0.55^***
	[-4.72]	[-4.84]		[-3.38]		[-2.44]	[-6.24]		[-6.31]
-2倍对数似然函数值	1214.96	1085.00		1046.67		1024.53	380.63		352.80
似然比检验P值	<0.01	<0.01			<0.01			<0.01

Impact of population flow on regional economic disparities in the Yangtze River economic belt

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