明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.11821/dlxb201701003

Abstract

Abstract:

In this paper, the literatures about the drought and flood disasters in Baoji region during the Ming and Qing dynasties were collected and sorted. The drought and flood disaster chains were discussed, while the response to climate change in Baoji region during 1368-1911 years was analyzed by using the accumulative anomaly method, moving average method and wavelet analysis and so on. The results showed that 297 events of drought and flood disasters occurred in Baoji during 1368-1911, while drought occurred 191 times and flood 106 times, accounting for 64.31% and 35.69%, respectively. There were obvious stage characteristics for drought and flood disasters, with drought episodes mainly observed from 1368 to 1644, while during 1645-1804 a fluctuant phase emerged, and the period 1805-1911 experienced drought episodes, presenting the alternating drought-wet period on the whole. Meanwhile there were three periods (70a, 110a and 170a) of oscillation on time scale of drought and flood existence, which had relationship with sunspot activity cycle. Drought and flood disasters had obvious variations in space; the northern and eastern parts of the Weihe river basin were prone to drought and flood. The occurrence of drought and flood disaster chains was a response to global climate change during the Ming and Qing dynasties in Baoji. Since the 1760s, the global climate deterioration has led to frequent extreme drought and flood disaster events.

Key words: Baoji region, drought and flood disaster chains, climate change, spatial temporal distribution characteristics, wavelet analysis

Honglian WAN, Hailong SONG, Chanchan ZHU, Mi ZHANG. Drought and flood disaster chain and its response to climate change in Baoji region during the Ming and Qing dynasties[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 27-38.

Figures/Tables 8

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灾害等级	灾害类型	判断标准
1	特大涝灾	表现为持续时间长、涉及范围广,特别是给当地人民群众的生产生活带来极其严重影响,并造成人员伤亡的洪涝灾害。
2	严重涝灾	受灾范围较广,主要涉及到农田被淹、淫雨害稼、减产免税及房舍冲毁等洪涝事件。
3	轻度涝灾	对当地人们生活、农作物以及社会经济发展有影响或者影响不大的洪灾灾害。
4	正常	无旱涝灾害记载。
5	轻度旱灾	旱灾对于播种有影响,农作物减产歉收,普遍饥馑,粮价飞涨等。
6	严重旱灾	此类旱灾造成民大饥,蝗虫四起,大疫,食树皮草根,粮价飞涨,民迁徙等,甚至出现死伤事件。
7	特大旱灾	旱灾范围波及较广,出现颗粒无收,人民赤贫,市场无物,人因饥饿难耐以至于人相食,卖妻卖子或者交换互相食之,饿殍载道,死伤无数。

年份	频次 (频率/%)	级别
		1级特大涝灾	2级严重涝灾	3级轻度涝灾	4级正常	5级轻度旱灾	6级严重旱灾	7级特大旱灾
		频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)	频次 (频率/%)
1368-1420年	8(2.69)	0(0)	0(0)	0(0)	45(84.91)	4(7.55)	4(7.55)	0(0)
1421-1470年	29(9.76)	0(0)	3(6)	3(6)	21(42)	11(22)	10(20)	2(4)
1471-1520年	25(8.42)	1(2)	2(4)	0(0)	25(50)	10(20)	8(16)	4(8)
1521-1570年	22(7.41)	4(8)	2(4)	1(2)	28(56)	2(4)	11(22)	2(4)
1571-1620年	23(7.71)	1(2)	1(2)	4(2)	27(54)	1(2)	9（18）	7(14)
1621-1670年	40(13.47)	1(2)	5(10)	9(18)	10(20)	5(10)	16(32)	4(8)
1671-1720年	16(5.39)	0(0)	5(10)	2(4)	34(68)	2(4)	6(12)	1(2)
1721-1770年	23(7.74)	2(4)	4(8)	1(2)	27(54)	7(14)	9(18)	0(0)
1771-1820年	35(11.78)	7(14)	5(10)	1(2)	15(30)	9(18)	13(26)	0(0)
1821-1870年	36(12.12)	7(14)	3(6)	7(14)	14(28)	10(20)	8(16)	1(2)
1870-1911年	40(13.47)	8(19.51)	9(21.95)	8(19.51)	1(2.44)	7(17.07)	7(17.07)	1(2.44)
544年合计	297(100)	31(5.7)	39(7.17)	36(6.62)	247(45.4)	68(12.5)	101(18.57)	22(4.04)

Drought and flood disaster chain and its response to climate change in Baoji region during the Ming and Qing dynasties

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[5]	MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.
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[10]	QIN Ya,LIU Yujie,GE Quansheng. Spatiotemporal variations in maize phenology of China under climate change from 1981 to 2010 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 906-916.
[11]	DENG Chenhui,BAI Hongying,GAO Shan,HUANG Xiaoyue,MENG Qing,ZHAO Ting,ZHANG Yang,SU Kai,GUO Shaozhuang. Comprehensive effect of climatic factors on plant phenology in Qinling Mountains region during 1964-2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 917-931.
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[14]	Xuezhen ZHANG, Xiaxiang LI, Xinchuang XU, Lijuan ZHANG. Ensemble projection of climate change scenarios of China in the 21st century based on the preferred climate models [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(9): 1555-1568.
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