气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201701002

Abstract

Abstract:

Changes in hydrological processes and water resources under climate change in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia have been investigated based on data analysis and paper review. Under the context of global warming hiatus, temperature of the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia has been in a state of high variability, which has accelerated the melting of glacier and snow. Warming has resulted in a series of changes in water resources. Snowfall fraction decreased from 11%-24% in 1960-1998 to 9%-21% in 2000-2014, 97.25% of the glaciers retreated in the last 50 years; and water storage decreased at a rate of -3.72 mm/a during 2003-2014. Warming has led to changes in mountainous hydrological processes and water resources. The runoff in the Tianshan Mountains has increased due to the accelerated glacier/snow melt, however, the runoff will decrease in the long term under continuous warming and current precipitation conditions.

Key words: climate change, glacier and snow, snowfall fraction, water resources, Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Yaning CHEN, Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.

Figures/Tables 5

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

References 40

[1]	Immerzeel W W, van Beek L P H, Bierkens M F P. Climate change will affect the Asian Water Towers. Science, 2010, 328: 1382-1385. doi: 10.1126/science.1183188 pmid: 20538947
[2]	Barnett T P, Adam J C, Lettenmaier D P.Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 2005, 438: 303-309.
[3]	IPCC. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 2013.
[4]	Douville H, Chauvin F, Planton S, et al.Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle in increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Climate Dynamics, 2002, 20: 45-68. doi: 10.1007/s00382-002-0259-3
[5]	Sorg A, Bolch T, Stoffel M, et al.Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia). Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2(10): 725-731. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1592
[6]	Chen Yaning, Li Zhi, Fan Yuting, et al.Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(9): 1295-1304. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201409005
	[陈亚宁, 李稚, 范煜婷, 等. 西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展, 地理学报, 2014, 69(9): 1295-1304.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201409005
[7]	Kosaka Y, Xie S P.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial pacific surface cooling. Nature, 2013, 501: 403-407. doi: 10.1038/nature12534 pmid: 23995690
[8]	Easterling D R, Wehner M F.Is the climate warming or cooling? Geographysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(8): l08706. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810
[9]	Li Z, Chen Y, Li W, et al.Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015, 120(24): 12345-12356. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023618
[10]	Harris I, Jones P, Osborn T, et al.Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations: The CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 2014, 34: 623-642. doi: 10.1002/joc.3711
[11]	Hu Z, Zhang C, Hu Q, et al.Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27: 1143-1167. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00064.1
[12]	Jones P D, Lister D H, Osborn T J, et al.Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2012, 117: D05127. doi: 10.1029/2011JD017139
[13]	Guo L, Li L.Variation of the proportion of precipitation occurring as snow in the Tianshan Mountains, China. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35(7): 1379-1393.
[14]	Knowles N, Dettinger M D, Cayan D R.Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the western United States, Journal of Climate, 2006, 19: 4545-4559.
[15]	Feng S, Hu Q.Changes in winter snowfall/precipitation ratio in the contiguous United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2007, 112(D15). doi: 10.1029/2007JD008397
[16]	Serquet G, Marty C, Dulex J P, et al.Seasonal trends and temperature dependence of the snowfall/precipitation-day ratio in Switzerland. Geophysical research letters, 2011, 38(7): 128-136. doi: 10.1029/2011GL046976
[17]	O'Gorman P A.Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change. Nature, 2014, 512(7515): 416-418. doi: 10.1038/nature13625 pmid: 25164753
[18]	Regonda S K, Rajagopalan B, Clark M.Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(2): 372-384.
[19]	Berghuijs W R, Woods R A, Hrachowitz M, et al.A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4: 583-586. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2246
[20]	Bocchiola D.Long term (1921-2011) hydrological regime of Alpine catchments in northern Italy. Advances in Water Resources, 2014, 70: 51-64. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.04.017
[21]	Farinotti D, Longuevergne L, Moholdt G, et al.Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years. Nature Geosci, 2015, 8(9): 716-722. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2513
[22]	Kaldybayev A, Chen Y, Issanova G, et al.Runoff response to the glacier shrinkage in the Karatal River Basin, Kazakhstan. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016, 9: 1-8. doi: 10.1007/s12517-015-2106-y
[23]	Li B, Zhu A, Zhang Y, et al.Glacier change over the past four decades in the middle Chinese Tien Shan. Journal of Glaciology, 2006, 52(178): 425-432. doi: 10.3189/172756506781828557
[24]	Wang P Y, Li Z Q, Li H L, et al.Glacier No. 4 of Sigong River over Mt. Bogda of eastern Tianshan, Central Asia: thinning and retreat during the period 1962-2009. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2012, 66: 265-273. doi: 10.1007/s12665-011-1236-0
[25]	Chen Y N.Water Resources Research in Northwest China. New York: Springer, 2014. doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-8017-9. pp.440. doi: 10.1007/978-94-017-8017-9
[26]	Zhang Y, Luo Y, Sun L, et al.Using glacier area ratio to quantify effects of melt water on runoff. Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 538: 269-277. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.026
[27]	Kaldybayev A, Chen Y, Issanova G, et al.Runoff response to the glacier shrinkage in the Karatal river basin, Kazakhstan. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016, 9: 1-8. doi: 10.1007/s12517-015-2106-y
[28]	Kong Y, Pang Z.Evaluating the sensitivity of glacier rivers to climate change based on hydrograph separation of discharge. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 434: 121-129. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.029
[29]	Duethmann D, Bolch T, Farinotti D, et al.Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia. Water Resources Research, 2015, 51: 4727-4750. doi: 10.1002/2014WR016716
[30]	Dikich A, Hagg W.ABHANDLUNGEN-Climate driven changes of glacier runoff in the Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan, Zeitschrift fur Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 2003, 39: 75-86. (in Russian)
[31]	Birsan M V, Molnar P, Burlando P, et al.Streamflow trends in Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology, 2005, 314: 312-329. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.06.008
[32]	Shen Yongping, Su Hongchao, Wang Guoya, et al.The responses of glaciers and snow cover to climate change in Xinjiang (I): Hydrological effect. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2013, 35(3): 513-527. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0061
	[沈永平, 苏宏超, 王国亚, 等. 新疆冰川,积雪对气候变化的响应(I): 水文效应. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3): 513-527.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2013.0061
[33]	Kriegel D, Mayer C, Hagg W, et al.Changes in glacierisation, climate and runoff in the second half of the 20th century in the Naryn basin, Central Asia. Global Planet Change, 2013, 110: 51-61. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.05.014
[34]	Campbell J L, Driscoll C T, Pourmokhtarian A.Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, United States. Water Resources Research, 2011, 47(2): W02514. doi: 10.1029/2010WR009438
[35]	Singh P, Bengtsson L.Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region. Journal of Hydrology, 2005, 300(1-4): 140-154. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.005
[36]	Zhao Q D, Zhang S Q, Ding Y J, et al.Modeling hydrologic response to climate change and shrinking glaciers in the highly glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015, 16: 2383-2402. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0231.1
[37]	Sun M, Li Z, Yao X, et al.Rapid shrinkage and hydrological response of a typical continental glacier in the arid region of northwest China: Taking Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as an example. Ecohydrology, 2013, 6: 909-916. doi: 10.1002/eco.1272
[38]	Sun M, Li Z, Yao X, et al.Modeling the hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized high mountain region, northwest China. Journal of Glaciology, 2015, 61: 127-136. doi: 10.3189/2015JoG14J033
[39]	Xu B, Lu Z, Liu S, et al.Glacier changes and their impacts on the discharge in the past half-century in Tekes watershed, Central Asia. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 2015, 89: 96-103. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2015.03.003
[40]	Wang H, Chen Y, Li W.Characteristics in streamflow and extremes in the Tarim River, China: Trends, distribution and climate linkage. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35(5): 761-776. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.12.048

分区	冰川面积(km²)/数目(条)				面积变化(%)/年平均变化率(%)
分区	1956年	1989年	2001年	2012年	1956-1989年	1989-2012年	1956-2012年
Terisakkan	14.1/36	8.4/21	6.5/21	5.1/17	-40/-1.22	-39/-1.68	-63/-1.13
Koksu	108.6/167	75.3/149	64.1/140	56.1/135	-31/-0.93	-26/-1.11	-48/-0.86
Shyzhyn	8.7/19	4.9/11	4.2/10	3.8/10	-44/-1.32	-22/-1.32	-56/-1.0
Kora	49.3/66	50.8/62	45.6/55	42.7/52	-22/-0.68	-21/-0.91	-39/-0.69
Total	198.9/285	142.8/243	122.2/226	109.3/214	-28/-0.86	-23/-1.02	-45/-0.81
Glaciers <0.1 in 1956	3.6/73	2.36/77	0.76/39	0.59/34	-34/-1.0	-75/-3.2	-83/-1.5

	最大积雪^②				最小积雪^③
	覆盖率(%)		面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)	覆盖率(%)	面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)
西天山	87	2.3	0.001		1.4	16	0.085
中天山	79	-672	-0.32		4.7	-60	-0.029
北天山	90	-78	-0.28		0.51	-20	0.02
东天山	54	-240	-0.09		2.1	17.6	0.08

Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 5

References 40

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10

[1]	TONG Biao, DANG Anrong, XU Jian. A historical study on the patterns of spatio-temporal evolution of towns in the Wuding River Basin [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1508-1524.
[2]	LIU Juan,YAO Xiaojun,LIU Shiyin,GUO Wanqin,XU Junli. Glacier changes in the Gangdisê Mountains from 1970 to 2016 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1333-1344.
[3]	GUO Chao,MENG Hongwei,MA Yuzhen,LI Dandan,HU Caili,LIU Jierui,LUO Congwen,WANG Kai. Environmental variations recorded by chemical element in the sediments of Lake Yamzhog Yumco on the southern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1345-1362.
[4]	LIU Jun,HUANG Li,SUN Xiaoqian,LI Ningxin,ZHANG Hengjin. Impact of climate change on birdwatching tourism in China:Based on the perspective of bird phenology [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 912-922.
[5]	MA Danyang, YIN Yunhe, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du. Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under high emission scenario [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 857-874.
[6]	Jiangbo GAO, Kewei JIAO, Shaohong WU. Revealing the climatic impacts on spatial heterogeneity of NDVI in China during 1982-2013 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 534-543.
[7]	DENG Mingjiang. "Three Water Lines" strategy: Its spatial patterns and effects on water resources allocation in northwest China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(7): 1189-1203.
[8]	LI Yichan,LI Yu,ZHU Gengrui. A new definition method of climate-sensitive region and its prediction [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(7): 1283-1295.
[9]	ZHANG Yang,BAI Hongying,SU Kai,HUANG Xiaoyue,MENG Qing,GUO Shaozhuang. Spatial variation of extreme temperature change on southern and northern slopes of Shaanxi section in Qinling Mountains during 1960-2013 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(7): 1296-1308.
[10]	DENG Haijun,CHEN Yaning. The glacier and snow variations and their impact on water resources in mountain regions: A case study in Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(7): 1309-1323.
[11]	QIN Ya,LIU Yujie,GE Quansheng. Spatiotemporal variations in maize phenology of China under climate change from 1981 to 2010 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 906-916.
[12]	DENG Chenhui,BAI Hongying,GAO Shan,HUANG Xiaoyue,MENG Qing,ZHAO Ting,ZHANG Yang,SU Kai,GUO Shaozhuang. Comprehensive effect of climatic factors on plant phenology in Qinling Mountains region during 1964-2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 917-931.
[13]	HUANG Gengzhi,LENG Shuying. The development of human geography in China under the support of National Natural Science Foundation of China (1986-2017) [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(3): 578-594.
[14]	PAN Wei, ZHENG Jingyun, MAN Zhimin. Reconstruction of runoffs over Upper-Middle Reaches of Yellow River and its relationship between PDO since AD 1766 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(11): 2053-2063.
[15]	Xuezhen ZHANG, Xiaxiang LI, Xinchuang XU, Lijuan ZHANG. Ensemble projection of climate change scenarios of China in the 21st century based on the preferred climate models [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(9): 1555-1568.