气候变化对中亚天山山区水资源影响研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201701002

Abstract

Abstract:

Changes in hydrological processes and water resources under climate change in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia have been investigated based on data analysis and paper review. Under the context of global warming hiatus, temperature of the Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia has been in a state of high variability, which has accelerated the melting of glacier and snow. Warming has resulted in a series of changes in water resources. Snowfall fraction decreased from 11%-24% in 1960-1998 to 9%-21% in 2000-2014, 97.25% of the glaciers retreated in the last 50 years; and water storage decreased at a rate of -3.72 mm/a during 2003-2014. Warming has led to changes in mountainous hydrological processes and water resources. The runoff in the Tianshan Mountains has increased due to the accelerated glacier/snow melt, however, the runoff will decrease in the long term under continuous warming and current precipitation conditions.

Key words: climate change, glacier and snow, snowfall fraction, water resources, Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Yaning CHEN, Zhi LI, Gonghuan FANG, Haijun DENG. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(1): 18-26.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 40

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分区	冰川面积(km²)/数目(条)				面积变化(%)/年平均变化率(%)
分区	1956年	1989年	2001年	2012年	1956-1989年	1989-2012年	1956-2012年
Terisakkan	14.1/36	8.4/21	6.5/21	5.1/17	-40/-1.22	-39/-1.68	-63/-1.13
Koksu	108.6/167	75.3/149	64.1/140	56.1/135	-31/-0.93	-26/-1.11	-48/-0.86
Shyzhyn	8.7/19	4.9/11	4.2/10	3.8/10	-44/-1.32	-22/-1.32	-56/-1.0
Kora	49.3/66	50.8/62	45.6/55	42.7/52	-22/-0.68	-21/-0.91	-39/-0.69
Total	198.9/285	142.8/243	122.2/226	109.3/214	-28/-0.86	-23/-1.02	-45/-0.81
Glaciers <0.1 in 1956	3.6/73	2.36/77	0.76/39	0.59/34	-34/-1.0	-75/-3.2	-83/-1.5

	最大积雪^②				最小积雪^③
	覆盖率(%)		面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)	覆盖率(%)	面积变化(km²/a)	变化率(%/a)
西天山	87	2.3	0.001		1.4	16	0.085
中天山	79	-672	-0.32		4.7	-60	-0.029
北天山	90	-78	-0.28		0.51	-20	0.02
东天山	54	-240	-0.09		2.1	17.6	0.08

Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tianshan Mountians, Central Asia

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