Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (11): 1979-1997.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201611009

• Land Use • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Land use driving forces and its future scenario simulation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area using CLUE-S model

Hua DENG1(), Jing'an SHAO2,3(), Jinliang WANG1, Ming GAO1, Chaofu WEI1   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China
    2. College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Environment Remote Sensing, in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, Chongqing 400047, China
  • Received:2016-01-11 Revised:2016-07-15 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25
  • Supported by:
    Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment, No.2012ZX07104-003

Abstract:

Model simulation and scenarios change analysis are the core contents of the future land use change study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorge Reservoir Area (TGRA) in 1990 were used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land use was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting driving factors of land use in the TGRA, land use of the TGRA in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, emigrant construction and ecological protection. The results were shown as follows: (1) The areas under ROC curves of land use types were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These land use types include paddy field, dry land, forestland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution. (2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land use simulation in 2010, were showed of paddy field 0.9, dry land 0.95, forestland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction. (3) The results of multi-scenarios simulation show a spatial competition relationship between different land use types, and an influence on food security, emigrant construction and ecological protection in the TGRA, including some land use change such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dry land, the occupation of cultivated land, rapid expansion of construction land from forestland and grassland, the reclamation of cultivated land to forestland and grassland, the conversion of forestland and grassland to cultivated land. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, so as to achieve the coordination between social economy and ecological environment.

Key words: land use, CLUE-S model, driving factor, scenario simulation, Three Gorge Reservoir Area