中国环境污染源的区域差异及其社会经济影响因素——基于339个地级行政单元截面数据的实证分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201611004

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the cross-section data of pollutant discharge and socio-economic development in 2012, by using the indicators of total discharge of COD and SO₂and various sources, the spatial differentiation and agglomeration effects of pollutant discharge are measured quantitatively in 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China. Meanwhile, the socio-economic drivers of environmental pollution are estimated through the econometric model, and some suggestions are put forward to reduce and control pollutant discharge. The results show that: (1) The regional differences of the structure of pollutant source are of great significance in China. Specifically, the types of water pollutant sources are mainly included in the region dominated by agricultural source, the region dominated by urban domestic source, and in the region jointly dominated by agricultural and urban domestic source, with the proportions of these regions being 35.40%, 33.92% and 25.66%, respectively. Among them, the discharge intensity of water pollutant is the highest in the region dominated by agricultural source, which are mainly located in North and Northeast China. Meanwhile, the types of air pollutant sources in China are mostly involved in the region absolutely dominated by industrial source, which accounts for 74.63% and is distributed in the vast area of China in addition to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (2) Single and bivariate LISA cluster maps of total discharge and various sources indicate that the agricultural source makes contribution to the spatial agglomeration of high intensity discharge of water pollutants, while the industrial source leads to the concentrated discharge of air pollutants. Especially, in the Bohai Rim region and its economic hinterland, the structure of pollutant sources strengthens the agglomeration effects of pollutant discharge intensity. (3) By means of OLS estimation for nationwide regression model, it is demonstrated that population size, urbanization rate and economic growth are the main driving factors of environmental pollution, and population size is the key factor in China. Moreover, in terms of regression models of regional types, the economic development level makes different contributions to pollutant discharge in various regions, which shows a positive effect on the air pollutant discharge in the region dominated by industrial source, while shows a negative effect on the water pollutant discharge in the region dominated by urban domestic source. In addition, the degree of industrialization has positive influence on the air pollutant discharge in the region absolutely dominated by industrial source.

Key words: environmental pollution, pollutant source, regional disparity, agglomeration effect, influencing factors, China

Kan ZHOU, Jie FAN. Regional disparity of environmental pollution source and its socio-economic influencing factors: Based on the cross-section data of 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(11): 1911-1925.

Figures/Tables 10

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指标项		化学需氧量					二氧化硫
指标项		排放总量		工业源	农业源	城镇生活源	排放总量	工业源	城镇生活源
单变量	Moran's I	0.2575	0.3194	0.5717	0.5102		0.3077	0.4178	0.4181
单变量	P值	0.0010	0.0010	0.0010	0.0010		0.0010	0.0010	0.0010
双变量	Moran's I	—	-0.1771	0.3245	-0.2287		—	0.1273	-0.1271
双变量	P值	—	0.0010	0.0010	0.0010		—	0.0020	0. 0010

变量	化学需氧量排放			二氧化硫排放
变量	β		Sig.	β	Sig.
lnTP	0.848^***	0.000		0.524^***	0.000
lnUR	0.157^***	0.001		0.202^***	0.003
lnPGDP	0.005	0.914		0.080	0.277
lnGRGDP	0.052^***	0.065		0.114^***	0.006
lnIS	0.021	0.485		0.289^***	0.000
P值	0.000			0.000
F值	225.846			72.629
调整后R²	0.771			0.525
D.W值	1.600			1.445

变量	城镇生活源主导型			农业源主导型		城镇生活和农业源复合型			工业源主导型
变量	β		Sig.		β	Sig.	β	Sig.	β	Sig.
lnTP	0.842^***	0.000		0.791^***	0.000	0.898^***	0.000		0.713^***	0.002
lnUR	0.318^***	0.000		0.090	0.339	0.260^***	0.002		-0.816	0.166
lnPGDP	-0.145^***	0.005		0.055	0.605	-0.130	0.142		0.643	0.285
lnGRGDP	0.006	0.831		0.033	0.609	-0.012	0.813		0.144	0.396
lnIS	0.076^***	0.010		-0.078	0.256	0.106^**	0.050		-0.019	0.946
P值	0.000			0.000		0.000			0.003
F值	282.017			40.103		84.785			7.630
调整后R²	0.926			0.622		0.833			0.674
D.W值	1.924			1.711		1.711			2.510

变量	工业源主导型			工业源绝对主导型		工业和城镇生活源复合型			城镇生活源主导型
变量	β		Sig.		β	Sig.	β	Sig.	β	Sig.
lnTP	0.597^***	0.000		0.436^***	0.000	0.815^***	0.000		-0.239	0.609
lnUR	0.190	0.249		-0.080	0.369	0.160	0.509		1.100	0.601
lnPGDP	0.321^**	0.079		0.299^***	0.002	0.208	0.385		-1.334	0.331
lnGRGDP	0.044	0.716		0.053	0.331	0.470^***	0.001		0.637	0.749
lnIS	-0.174	0.185		0.335^***	0.000	-0.063	0.618		-0.274	0.823
P值	0.000			0.000		0.000			0.648
F值	9.116			26.571		14.522			0.727
调整后R²	0.474			0.339		0.700			-0.206
D.W值	1.600			1.660		1.689			2.555

Regional disparity of environmental pollution source and its socio-economic influencing factors: Based on the cross-section data of 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China

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