Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (10): 1696-1709.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201610003
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Received:
2015-11-16
Revised:
2016-05-31
Online:
2016-11-28
Published:
2016-11-28
LIN Liyue,ZHU Yu. Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants' Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture- and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(10): 1696-1709.
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Tab. 1
The distribution of China's prefecture- and provincial-level cities by the rank of their migrants' hukou transfer intention
城市类型 | 城市及数量 | 迁移意愿区间(%) | 平均值(%) |
---|---|---|---|
I类(极高迁移意愿城市) | 盐城市、临沂市、厦门市、泰安市、大连市、大庆市、七台河市、雅安市、酒泉市、上海市、北京市、克拉玛依市、中卫市、盘锦市14个城市 | 70.01~90.00 | 77.35 |
II类(高迁移意愿城市) | 常州市、莱芜市、辽阳市、铜仁市、银川市、宜昌市、徐州市、惠州市、贵阳市、巴中市、聊城市、日照市、汕头市、防城港市、石嘴山市、无锡市、池州市、十堰市、朔州市、珠海市、洛阳市、铁岭市、丽江市、哈尔滨市、廊坊市、广州市、乌鲁木齐市、辽源市、河源市、深圳市、眉山市、青岛市、烟台市、威海市、天津市、营口市、濮阳市、伊春市、大同市、武汉市、德州市、南京市、济南市、通辽市、淮北市45个城市 | 50.01~70.00 | 55.97 |
III类(较高迁移意愿城市) | 邯郸市、苏州市等66个城市 | 41.01~50.00 | 45.35 |
IV类(中等迁移意愿城市) | 淮南市、临沧市和衡阳市等126个城市 | 20.01~41.00 | 31.29 |
V类(低迁移意愿城市) | 揭阳市、潮州市、张掖市、汕尾市、安康市、丹东市、来宾市、天水市、信阳市、吉安市、贵港市、陇南市、平顶山市、孝感市、内江市、邢台市、宣城市、抚州市、铜川市、六盘水市、贺州市、莆田市、安庆市、 吕梁市、永州市25个城市 | 0.00~20.00 | 12.40 |
Tab. 2
The theoretical frameworks and relevant variables, mechanisms and their elaboration
理论框架 | 变量 | 机制/逻辑 | 归因方式 |
---|---|---|---|
劳动力市场 分割理论 | 流入地城市的社会、经济发展水平 | 社会、经济发展水平的正向回报机制 | 社会经济水平高,户籍的含金量高,户籍迁移意愿亦高 |
流入地城市的劳动力市场特征和社保情况 | 一级劳动力部门与次级劳动力部门的差异 | 集中在次级劳动力市场导致收入水平低,工作缺乏稳定性,户籍迁移意愿低 | |
社会融合理论 | 流动人口的社会融合程度、流动时间 | 社会融合的正向回报机制 | 流动时间长、社会融合程度高,对流入地的认同度和归属感高,户籍迁移意愿亦高 |
空间区位理论 | 流入地城市的区位特征 | 区位的差异 | 区位条件优越(位于东部和沿海),户籍迁移意愿高 |
新劳动力迁移经济学理论 | 流动人口的个体家庭特征、家庭收入与财富水平 | 家庭资源的正向激励机制 | 个人条件优越、在流入城市家庭成员多、家庭收入与财富水平高,生存能力强,户籍迁移意愿高 |
Tab. 3
Principal components analysis of socioeconomic indicators of migrants' destination cities
经济发展水平(F1) | 社会发展水平(F2) | 公共服务设施水平(F3) | 区位特征(F4) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
公共财政预算收入 | 0.929 | 0.226 | 0.180 | 0.122 |
公共财政一般预算内支出 | 0.920 | 0.135 | 0.295 | 0.049 |
年末单位从业人员数 | 0.870 | 0.233 | 0.330 | 0.130 |
经济总量GDP | 0.811 | 0.387 | 0.326 | 0.205 |
社会消费品零售总额 | 0.803 | 0.351 | 0.382 | 0.193 |
制造业就业人员 | 0.784 | 0.321 | 0.237 | 0.293 |
在岗职工平均工资 | 0.570 | 0.539 | -0.186 | 0.154 |
外商直接投资实际使用额 | 0.486 | 0.458 | 0.414 | 0.193 |
人均城乡居民储蓄年末余额 | 0.174 | 0.863 | 0.053 | 0.201 |
人均图书馆图书册数 | 0.153 | 0.789 | 0.103 | 0.002 |
人均GDP | 0.350 | 0.694 | -0.196 | 0.320 |
城镇居民可支配收入 | 0.393 | 0.595 | 0.033 | 0.490 |
是否为省会、副省级城市 | 0.442 | 0.533 | 0.331 | -0.134 |
普通中学在校学生数 | 0.137 | -0.087 | 0.917 | 0.066 |
普通中学专任教师数 | 0.461 | -0.006 | 0.844 | 0.114 |
医院床位数 | 0.443 | 0.219 | 0.777 | -0.019 |
区位(东中西) | -0.025 | 0.114 | 0.142 | 0.866 |
是否为沿海城市群内 | 0.179 | 0.177 | 0.056 | 0.833 |
是否沿海 | 0.164 | 0.040 | -0.029 | 0.667 |
载荷因子累计贡献率 | 31.361 | 50.246 | 66.485 | 79.996 |
Tab. 4
Principal components analysis of migrants' socioeconomic indicators
就业特征(F5) | 家庭收入与财富水平(F6) | 个体和家庭 基本特征(F7) | 流动时间(F8) | 社会融合 程度(F9) | 社会保险 情况(F10) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
在私营企业就业比例 | 0.842 | 0.039 | 0.159 | -0.108 | -0.029 | -0.079 |
制造业从业人员比重 | 0.830 | 0.242 | 0.013 | 0.039 | -0.145 | 0.056 |
雇员比例 | 0.773 | -0.113 | 0.421 | -0.042 | -0.030 | 0.057 |
第三产业从业比重 | -0.741 | 0.264 | 0.096 | -0.078 | 0.028 | 0.007 |
跨省流入比重 | 0.436 | 0.366 | 0.015 | 0.003 | -0.408 | 0.408 |
家庭月收入 | -0.014 | 0.966 | -0.045 | 0.051 | -0.041 | -0.014 |
家庭年储蓄金额 | 0.151 | 0.909 | 0.052 | -0.023 | -0.044 | -0.036 |
个人月均收入 | -0.195 | 0.833 | -0.028 | -0.105 | 0.015 | 0.143 |
平均受教育年限 | -0.268 | 0.046 | 0.735 | -0.320 | 0.134 | -0.028 |
白领比例 | 0.216 | 0.156 | 0.719 | 0.240 | 0.040 | -0.024 |
本地家庭规模 | -0.262 | 0.100 | -0.716 | 0.272 | 0.097 | -0.252 |
已婚比例 | -0.142 | 0.155 | -0.626 | 0.366 | 0.117 | -0.085 |
在外流动时间 | 0.049 | 0.046 | -0.115 | 0.842 | -0.047 | 0.014 |
本地滞留时间 | -0.063 | -0.148 | -0.178 | 0.825 | 0.051 | 0.045 |
社区活动参与度 | -0.038 | -0.018 | -0.038 | -0.247 | 0.788 | 0.250 |
社会心理认同度 | -0.111 | -0.021 | 0.027 | 0.260 | 0.739 | -0.210 |
享有城镇职工医保比重 | -0.035 | 0.042 | 0.125 | 0.057 | 0.031 | 0.897 |
载荷因子累计贡献率 | 17.792 | 34.354 | 47.547 | 58.867 | 67.158 | 74.140 |
Tab. 5
Multiple linear regressions of the determinants of migrants' hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture- and provincial-level cities
非标准化系数 | 标准化系数 | t值 | Sig. | |
---|---|---|---|---|
(常量) | 39.248 | 54.599 | 0.000 | |
社会融合程度(F9) | 6.277 | 0.405 | 8.475 | 0.000 |
社会发展水平(F2) | 5.243 | 0.339 | 6.972 | 0.000 |
经济发展水平(F1) | 5.008 | 0.324 | 6.617 | 0.000 |
流动时间(F8) | 3.789 | 0.247 | 5.285 | 0.000 |
社会保险情况(F10) | -2.173 | -0.139 | -2.919 | 0.004 |
城市区位(F4) | 3.558 | 0.229 | 3.966 | 0.000 |
就业特征(F5) | -2.885 | -0.188 | -3.346 | 0.001 |
家庭收入与财富 水平(F6) | -1.706 | -0.110 | -2.205 | 0.028 |
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