Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (10): 1696-1709.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201610003

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants' Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture- and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey

LIN Liyue1,2, ZHU Yu1,2,3()   

  1. 1. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Fujian Normal University), Ministry of Education, Fuzhou 350007, China
    3. Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
  • Received:2015-11-16 Revised:2016-05-31 Online:2016-11-28 Published:2016-11-28


Based on data from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey and related statistics, this article examines the spatial pattern and its determinants of migrants' intention of hukou transfer of China's 276 prefecture- and provincial-level cities, using GIS spatial analysis and statistical modelling. The results show that the overall level of migrants' hukou transfer intention of the cities is not high, and varies significantly among different cities. The intention of migrants' hukou transfer increases as the administrative level and/or the size of their destination cities increase. Meanwhile, migrants' hukou transfer intention is generally higher in coastal mega-city regions than in other cities, but it is also relatively high in some provincial capital cities and small and medium-sized cities in some inland regions with good transport location and resource endowment. The spatial pattern of migrants' intention of hukou transfer is shaped jointly by both the characteristics of the destination cities and migrants themselves characteristics, with the former exerting more influence than the latter. High level of socioeconomic development and good location of the destination cities can effectively promote their migrants' intention of hukou transfer; however, their level of basic public services does not have the same effect. The degree of migrants' social integration in the destination cities also exerts positive effects on their hukou transfer intention. However, having medical insurance, the concentration in the secondary labor market and higher household income are negatively related to such intention; furthermore, the individual and family characteristics of migrants do not have a significant impact on it. Finally, on the basis of the above findings, we put forward some suggestions for relevant policy making.

Key words: migrants, hukou transfer intention, spatial difference, prefecture- and provincial-level cities, China