广州大都市登革热时空传播混合模式

doi:10.11821/dlxb201609015

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new method to model the spatial and temporal transmission network for infectious disease. Specifically, 679 cases from the early 11 weeks of the dengue fever outbreak in Guangzhou in 2014 are used to analyze the disease transmission characteristics. Three methods are adopted for the analysis. (1) We use extended Knox test to derive the main time and space interaction sectors at a distance of 1 km in two weeks and that of 5-7 km in one week. (2) We pair the cases from different areas to construct the space-time affinity transmission (STAT) network and the human daily movement transmission (HDMT) network. (3) We compare the assortativity, spatial characteristics, and the central network location between STAT and HDMT network by using complex network theories. The result shows that the percentages of overall cases included in the STAT and HDMT networks are 92.93% and 97.05%, respectively. This means that both STAT and HDMT network models imply the overall transmission of the dengue fever outbreak. STAT network is assortative, and presents the cross infection in neighboring areas. On the contrary, HDMT network is disassortative, and it displays the diffusion infection character of the dengue fever outbreak. We earmark the location of outbreak center as well as the diffusion center with the degree of closeness centrality in STAT network and the degree of betweenness centrality in HDMT network. This shows that the outbreak center approximately overlaps the spatial kernel density center of all cases, while the diffusion centers are located along the urban rapid transit routes.

Key words: extended Knox test, spatial-temporal transmission network, mixing pattern, dengue fever, Guangzhou

Haiyan TAO, Zhongzhe PAN, Maolin PAN, Li ZHUO, Yong XU, Miao LU. Mixing spatial-temporal transmission patterns of metropolis dengue fever: A case study of Guangzhou, China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(9): 1653-1662.

Figures/Tables 8

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空间距离 (km)	时间距离(周)
空间距离 (km)	[0, 1)	[1, 2)	[2, 3)	[3, 4)	[4, 5)
[0, 1)	9649^*	6779^*	4229	2707^*	2180^*
[1, 2)	9322	6063	3620	2244^*	1440
[2, 3)	8037	5118	3083	1692	1319
[3, 4)	8311	5321	3141	1725	1294
[4, 5)	8421	5583	3476	1653	1184
[5, 6)	9132^*	5720	3246	1467	1173
[6, 7)	8942^*	5510	3070^*	1402	1197
[7, 8)	6502	3825	2523	1019	791
[8, 9)	4789	2983	2088	727	618

Mixing spatial-temporal transmission patterns of metropolis dengue fever: A case study of Guangzhou, China

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