基于IO-SDA模型的新疆能源消费碳排放影响机理分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201607002

Abstract

Abstract:

Global warming and climate change are issues that have aroused widespread attention, and the need for a transition to a low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the international community. China has become one of the world's largest energy consumers, as well as one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. This further highlights the importance and urgency of research on carbon emissions from energy consumption. Based on regional perspectives of the impacts of carbon emissions, the analysis of mechanisms responsible for carbon emissions has become an important research topic. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. It is critical to ensure stable socioeconomic development as well as to achieve energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, thus the harmonious development of "society-economy-energy-environment," is the key issue currently facing the region. This study, based on the input-output theory, presents a structural decomposition analysis of the factors affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997-2007. This analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of "energy-economy-carbon emissions," and uses an extended IO-SDA model. The data for this study come from the Xinjiang input-output table for 1997-2002-2007. Population, economic, and energy source data are derived from the Statistical Yearbook of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. (1) Xinjiang's carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. (2) The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions shows that the change in per capita GDP, final demand structure, population scale, and production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was an important factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This shows that while Xinjiang's economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and production technology had not been improved, which results in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. (3) An analysis of the indirect effects of the factors influencing carbon emissions shows that inter-provincial transfers, gross fixed capital formation, and consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. (4) The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon-intensive industry sectors, as well as the growth of inter-provincial transfers of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-area "implicit carbon" very significant.

Key words: carbon emissions, input-output-structural decomposition analysis, influencing factors, Xinjiang

Changjian WANG, Xiaolei ZHANG, Hongou ZHANG, Fei WANG. Influencing mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on IO-SDA model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(7): 1105-1118.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab. 1

Energy-economy-carbon emission input-output model

		中间使用	最终需求		总产出
		1, 2, …, n	消费	资本形成		出口	调出
中间投入	1	$X ij$	$Y i$		$X i$
	2
	…
	n
增加值		$V j$
总投入		$X j$
能源投入	1	$E kj$	$E ky$		$E k$
	2
	…
	m
碳排放	1	$C kj$	$C ky$		$C k$
	2
	…
	k

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 1

Tab. 4

Fig. 2

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Fig. 3

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代码	产业	代码	产业
1	农业	15	金属制品业
2	煤炭采选业	16	通用、专用设备制造业
3	石油和天然气开采业	17	交通运输设备制造业
4	金属矿采选业	18	电气、机械及器材制造业
5	非金属矿采选业	19	通信设备、计算机及其它电子设备制造业
6	食品制造及烟草加工业	20	仪器仪表及文化办公用品制造业
7	纺织业	21	其他制造业
8	服装皮革羽绒及其他纤维制品制造业	22	电力热力生产和供应业
9	木材加工及家具制造业	23	燃气生产和供应业
10	造纸印刷及文教用品制造业	24	水的生产和供应业
11	石油加工及炼焦业	25	建筑业
12	化学原料及化学制品制造业	26	交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业
13	非金属矿物制品业	27	批发和零售贸易业、餐饮业
14	金属冶炼及压延加工业	28	其他行业

	碳排放因子^a	转换因子^b	氧化率^a	低热值(LCV)^c
原煤	25.800	0.7143 tce/t	0.918	20.908
焦炭	29.410	0.9714 tce/t	0.928	28.435
洗煤	25.800	0.2857 tce/t	0.918	8.363
精煤	27.680	0.9000 tce/t	0.918	26.344
原油	20.080	1.4286 tce/t	0.979	41.816
柴油	20.170	1.4571 tce/t	0.982	42.652
煤油	19.600	1.4714 tce/t	0.980	43.070
汽油	18.900	1.4714 tce/t	0.986	43.070
燃料油	21.090	1.4286 tce/t	0.985	41.816
天然气	17.200	1.3300 tce/10³m³	0.990	38.931
炼油气	18.200	1.5714 tce/t	0.989	46.055
液化石油气	17.200	1.7143 tce/t	0.989	50.179

影响因素	1997-2002年	2002-2007年	1997-2007年
人口规模(Population size)	67.49	14.96	27.63
人均GDP(GDP per capita)	139.24	83.82	127.04
最终需求结构(Final demand structure)	139.57	19.50	28.78
生产结构(Production structure)	19.02	16.25	25.48
碳排放强度(Carbon emission intensity)	-265.33	-34.54	-108.92
总效应(Total change)	100.00	100.00	100.00

最终需求	1997-2002年	2002-2007年	1997-2007年
农村居民消费(Rural household consumption)	9.31	6.72	7.10
城镇居民消费(Urban household consumption)	-10.90	24.59	19.32
政府消费(Government consumption)	-1.36	12.51	10.45
固定资本形成总额(Fixed capital formation)	76.41	78.45	78.15
存货增加(Inventory increase)	-47.64	7.67	-0.54
调出(Inter-provincial export)	28.20	90.52	81.27
出口(International export)	16.55	5.22	6.90
调进(Inter-provincial import)	63.09	-128.10	-99.72
进口(International import)	-33.65	2.42	-2.93
总效应(Total change)	100.00	100.00	100.00

代码	农村居民消费	城镇居民消费	政府消费	固定资本形成总额	存货增加	调出	出口	调进	进口
1	18.73	-6.69	3.13	-8.68	-81.00	166.55	88.20	15.52	3.21
2	5.37	-2.01	0.00	0.00	-3.18	0.38	-0.02	28.69	-0.08
3	-0.19	1.17	0.00	0.00	-22.39	-18.39	2.92	6.23	-18.64
4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.13	24.10	-0.07	-0.05	-9.69
5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.13	-3.75	0.52	14.72	0.03
6	-0.58	33.53	0.00	0.00	-8.55	-16.50	13.44	12.63	-0.10
7	2.69	0.97	0.00	0.00	6.80	-46.03	-12.37	-0.93	0.22
8	3.86	10.53	0.00	0.00	0.38	-11.12	-3.01	-4.49	-3.79
9	1.62	1.25	0.00	9.70	2.66	-0.49	9.25	-28.57	-2.61
10	0.14	-4.93	0.00	0.00	0.50	-2.75	-1.01	-34.15	2.99
11	11.11	-1.18	0.00	0.00	16.41	1028.67	-6.80	24.90	-0.58
12	6.26	29.82	0.00	0.00	16.75	173.26	-1.34	-169.70	-5.59
13	19.60	12.56	0.00	0.00	4.77	-2.65	3.85	-84.60	-0.38
14	0.00	-8.64	0.00	0.00	2.45	181.33	19.83	-313.60	32.63
15	0.15	1.33	0.00	133.95	21.81	1.53	-1.83	-194.61	-16.37
16	-0.02	5.45	0.00	191.04	25.53	-13.99	-0.97	-316.38	-12.18
17	5.90	6.14	0.00	-16.49	-0.67	-28.30	5.06	91.86	0.95
18	0.60	1.76	0.00	48.71	6.25	43.47	0.78	-46.61	-4.28
19	12.16	62.17	0.00	206.80	5.99	31.34	4.10	-390.85	-13.27
20	0.28	-1.42	0.00	-1.12	4.66	-0.08	-0.13	-8.19	-4.96
21	0.24	5.64	0.00	0.00	-1.15	-8.74	0.34	-11.43	3.23
22	18.93	104.03	0.00	0.00	-0.22	-8.23	0.00	15.89	0.00
23	0.15	2.55	0.00	0.00	-0.52	-5.96	0.00	0.31	0.00
24	1.20	2.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.37	0.00
25	7.00	0.00	0.00	944.13	0.00	0.13	0.00	-235.83	0.00
26	17.19	65.26	25.87	-29.54	-6.05	162.85	1.97	-88.19	-4.28
27	-14.95	-24.58	0.04	0.60	-3.92	-50.82	12.78	-80.33	-4.08
28	22.13	82.68	176.28	55.93	0.06	0.55	0.00	-161.42	0.00
碳排放增量	139.55	379.52	205.32	1535.04	-10.63	1596.37	135.50	-1958.81	-57.61

Influencing mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on IO-SDA model

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