Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (6): 1025-1044.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606010

• Urbanization • Previous Articles     Next Articles

China's new-type urbanization and investment demand prediction analysis, 2015-2030

Dongqi SUN(), Mingxing CHEN Yufu CHEN, Wuzhati YEERKEN()   

  1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-05-20 Revised:2016-02-26 Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-06-30
  • Supported by:
    The Chinese Academy of Sciences Priority Deployment Project, No.KJZD-EW-TZ-G10;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501137, No.41530634;Project of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, No.2015M571107

Abstract:

The development of the new-type urbanization in the future has aroused great attention from the government and the public. Initially, this research predicts the urbanization and population dynamics on both national and provincial levels from 2015 to 2030. On this basis, this study examines the spatial variation of urbanization given the national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Furthermore, it estimates the national and provincial demands of investment in the new urbanization. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The population and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12% respectively from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will be vanished when population pressure reaches its maximum. The re-production population will reach 70.16 million and a suburban population of 316.7 million will be urbanized, leaving an urban population of 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of each province will increase during 2015-2030, the difference of urbanization rate and urbanization quality between provinces is substantial. In some provinces, urbanization quality and eco-social development are uncoordinated. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is needed for the sake of new urbanization and the investment demand in each province varies largely: Guangdong province needs the most funding, which is 148.09 times as much as that of Tibet, which needs the least funding. In the final part, policy suggestions regarding the investment of the new urbanization are put forward.

Key words: new-type urbanization, urbanization investment, 2015-2030, forecast, China