2015-2030年中国新型城镇化发展及其资金需求预测

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606010

Abstract

Abstract:

The development of the new-type urbanization in the future has aroused great attention from the government and the public. Initially, this research predicts the urbanization and population dynamics on both national and provincial levels from 2015 to 2030. On this basis, this study examines the spatial variation of urbanization given the national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Furthermore, it estimates the national and provincial demands of investment in the new urbanization. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The population and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12% respectively from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will be vanished when population pressure reaches its maximum. The re-production population will reach 70.16 million and a suburban population of 316.7 million will be urbanized, leaving an urban population of 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of each province will increase during 2015-2030, the difference of urbanization rate and urbanization quality between provinces is substantial. In some provinces, urbanization quality and eco-social development are uncoordinated. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is needed for the sake of new urbanization and the investment demand in each province varies largely: Guangdong province needs the most funding, which is 148.09 times as much as that of Tibet, which needs the least funding. In the final part, policy suggestions regarding the investment of the new urbanization are put forward.

Key words: new-type urbanization, urbanization investment, 2015-2030, forecast, China

Dongqi SUN, Mingxing CHEN Yufu CHEN, Wuzhati YEERKEN. China's new-type urbanization and investment demand prediction analysis, 2015-2030[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 1025-1044.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab. 1

Fig. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

The population dynamics and urbanization investment in China and provinces, 2015 to 2030

区域	2030年总人口 (万人)	2030年城镇人口 (万人)	2015-2030年城镇自身再生产人口(万人)	2015-2030年农村转入城镇人口(万人)	2015-2030年城镇增加人口 (万人)	2015-2030年新型城镇化建设所需资金(万亿元)	2015-2030年城镇化建设所需资金占全国的比例(%)	2015-2030年GDP 累计总量 (万亿元)	2015-2030年城镇化所需资金占GDP累计总量的比例(%)
北京	2992.12	2975.96	198.10	923.25	1121.35	3.07	2.91	53.60	5.73
天津	1604.24	1582.42	105.34	446.25	551.59	1.51	1.43	31.50	4.79
河北	7500.32	4838.46	322.09	1477.44	1799.53	4.92	4.67	74.87	6.57
山西	4729.47	3276.10	218.10	1049.87	1267.97	3.46	3.28	35.46	9.76
内蒙古	2524.87	1896.43	126.25	489.21	615.46	1.69	1.60	48.65	3.47
辽宁	4388.53	3337.04	222.15	710.59	932.74	2.56	2.43	72.24	3.54
吉林	2800.62	1736.94	115.63	328.77	444.4	1.22	1.16	34.80	3.51
黑龙江	3760.28	2359.20	157.05	382.82	539.87	1.49	1.41	38.59	3.86
上海	3011.63	3008.32	200.26	937.24	1137.5	3.1	2.94	63.49	4.88
江苏	8170.34	7363.93	490.22	2209.68	2699.9	7.37	6.99	157.33	4.68
浙江	5946.81	5692.88	378.98	2089.71	2468.69	6.73	6.39	98.13	6.86
安徽	6059.40	3993.14	265.83	1112.78	1378.61	3.77	3.58	50.14	7.52
福建	4068.70	3637.01	242.11	1205.90	1448.01	3.95	3.75	56.57	6.98
江西	4680.76	3015.81	200.76	888.50	1089.26	2.98	2.83	38.10	7.82
山东	9799.01	7315.94	487.03	2079.85	2566.88	7.01	6.65	141.50	4.95
河南	9494.06	5635.67	375.16	1584.68	1959.84	5.36	5.09	83.78	6.40
湖北	5563.67	3781.07	251.72	909.88	1161.6	3.18	3.02	65.31	4.87
湖南	6415.51	4321.49	287.69	1206.37	1494.06	4.09	3.88	66.13	6.18
广东	14470.67	13901.97	925.45	5381.01	6306.46	17.17	16.29	164.42	10.44
广西	4853.91	3053.11	203.24	865.63	1068.87	2.92	2.77	38.92	7.50
海南	1066.60	766.46	51.03	255.15	306.18	0.83	0.79	10.39	7.99
重庆	2690.93	2235.89	148.85	601.95	750.8	2.05	1.95	34.14	6.00
四川	7785.76	4853.64	323.12	1289.88	1613	4.41	4.18	69.93	6.31
贵州	3701.60	1841.92	122.62	509.82	632.44	1.73	1.64	17.81	9.71
云南	5194.26	2842.30	189.22	923.60	1112.82	3.03	2.88	29.69	10.21
西藏	366.95	117.50	7.83	35.93	43.76	0.12	0.11	1.98	6.06
陕西	3844.83	2569.50	171.06	737.61	908.67	2.48	2.35	42.88	5.78
甘肃	2709.57	1310.89	87.27	368.20	455.47	1.24	1.18	16.16	7.67
青海	649.93	363.44	24.20	99.82	124.02	0.34	0.32	5.44	6.25
宁夏	783.91	496.53	33.05	156.82	189.87	0.52	0.49	7.26	7.16
新疆	2896.73	1275.14	84.88	309.75	394.63	1.08	1.02	21.44	5.04
全国	144526.00	101341.63	7016.26	31567.96	38584.22	105.38	100.00	1649.21	6.39

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

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年份	城镇化率 (%)	总人口 (亿人)	城镇人口 (亿人)	农村人口 (亿人)	农转城人口 (亿人)	GDP (万亿元)	GDP/亿人 (万元)	一二三产业结构(%)
2015	48.23	13.75	6.63	7.12	0.1836	68.20	4.96	10/45/45
2016	49.77	13.81	6.87	6.94	0.1869	72.63	5.26	10/45/45
2017	51.31	13.87	7.12	6.75	0.1896	77.35	5.58	10/45/45
2018	52.85	13.92	7.36	6.56	0.1911	82.38	5.92	10/44/46
2019	54.38	13.97	7.60	6.37	0.1928	87.74	6.28	10/44/46
2020	55.90	14.03	7.84	6.19	0.1948	93.44	6.66	10/44/46
2021	57.41	14.07	8.08	5.99	0.1966	99.51	7.07	10/44/46
2022	58.91	14.12	8.32	5.8	0.1983	105.98	7.51	10/44/46
2023	60.40	14.17	8.56	5.61	0.2003	112.87	7.97	10/44/46
2024	61.86	14.21	8.79	5.42	0.1997	120.21	8.46	10/44/46
2025	63.30	14.26	9.03	5.23	0.1989	128.02	8.98	10/43/47
2026	64.72	14.30	9.25	5.05	0.1984	136.34	9.53	10/43/47
2027	66.11	14.34	9.48	4.86	0.1965	145.20	10.13	10/43/47
2028	67.48	14.38	9.70	4.68	0.1954	154.64	10.75	10/43/47
2029	68.82	14.41	9.92	4.49	0.1932	164.70	11.43	10/43/47
2030	70.12	14.45	10.13	4.32	0.1903	175.40	12.14	10/43/47

区域	2015年	2020年	2025年	2030年	区域	2015年	2020年	2025年	2030年
北京	77.13	85.02	92.32	99.46	湖北	46.15	53.77	61.14	67.96
天津	72.91	81.26	89.10	98.64	湖南	43.58	51.82	59.85	67.36
河北	40.86	49.02	57.01	64.51	广东	64.30	76.21	87.81	96.07
山西	46.95	54.74	62.30	69.27	广西	40.86	48.49	55.95	62.90
内蒙古	52.34	60.34	68.04	75.11	海南	47.75	56.13	64.28	71.86
辽宁	57.67	64.30	70.51	76.04	重庆	52.09	62.77	73.24	83.09
吉林	48.79	53.64	58.12	62.02	四川	40.37	47.98	55.40	62.34
黑龙江	50.03	54.73	59.03	62.74	贵州	32.51	38.49	44.32	49.76
上海	79.78	87.43	94.46	99.89	云南	35.26	41.99	48.57	54.72
江苏	58.72	69.61	80.22	90.13	西藏	22.38	25.77	29.03	32.02
浙江	58.69	71.41	83.92	95.73	陕西	43.86	51.84	59.60	66.83
安徽	42.48	50.59	58.50	65.90	甘肃	32.36	37.94	43.35	48.38
福建	56.32	67.73	78.89	89.39	青海	40.49	45.97	51.19	55.92
江西	42.59	50.18	57.57	64.43	宁夏	43.67	50.56	57.21	63.34
山东	49.56	58.28	66.77	74.66	新疆	36.08	39.07	41.76	44.02
河南	38.62	45.81	52.81	59.36	全国	48.23	55.90	63.30	70.12

China's new-type urbanization and investment demand prediction analysis, 2015-2030

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区域	σ	区域	σ	区域	σ	区域	σ
北京	0.6746	上海	0.6788	湖北	0.4377	云南	0.1465
天津	0.6763	江苏	0.6273	湖南	0.4452	西藏	0.0067
河北	0.4315	浙江	0.6165	广东	0.6077	陕西	0.2242
山西	0.2279	安徽	0.3815	广西	0.2158	甘肃	0.0796
内蒙古	0.4525	福建	0.5713	海南	0.3856	青海	0.0719
辽宁	0.4769	江西	0.2261	重庆	0.4667	宁夏	0.1429
吉林	0.3419	山东	0.6046	四川	0.2558	新疆	0.1391
黑龙江	0.2463	河南	0.3925	贵州	0.0348	全国	0.4371

区域	δ	区域	δ	区域	δ	区域	δ
贵州	0.5933	安徽	0.2836	黑龙江	0.0764	山东	-0.2849
西藏	0.5255	青海	0.2654	广东	0.0474	浙江	-0.4388
云南	0.5195	河南	0.2267	陕西	0.0163	辽宁	-0.4864
甘肃	0.4845	四川	0.2122	全国	0.0000	北京	-0.5809
山西	0.3666	宁夏	0.1951	湖北	-0.0454	江苏	-0.7182
新疆	0.3420	海南	0.1609	重庆	-0.1164	内蒙古	-0.7412
广西	0.3057	河北	0.1269	吉林	-0.1225	天津	-0.7501
江西	0.2976	湖南	0.0947	福建	-0.2107	上海	-0.8772

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