Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (6): 1025-1044.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201606010
• Urbanization • Previous Articles Next Articles
Dongqi SUN(), Mingxing CHEN Yufu CHEN, Wuzhati YEERKEN(
)
Received:
2015-05-20
Revised:
2016-02-26
Online:
2016-06-30
Published:
2016-06-30
Supported by:
Dongqi SUN, Mingxing CHEN Yufu CHEN, Wuzhati YEERKEN. China's new-type urbanization and investment demand prediction analysis, 2015-2030[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 1025-1044.
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Tab. 1
The dynamics of China's urbanization rate and related factors, 2015-2030
年份 | 城镇化率 (%) | 总人口 (亿人) | 城镇人口 (亿人) | 农村人口 (亿人) | 农转城人口 (亿人) | GDP (万亿元) | GDP/亿人 (万元) | 一二三产业 结构(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 48.23 | 13.75 | 6.63 | 7.12 | 0.1836 | 68.20 | 4.96 | 10/45/45 |
2016 | 49.77 | 13.81 | 6.87 | 6.94 | 0.1869 | 72.63 | 5.26 | 10/45/45 |
2017 | 51.31 | 13.87 | 7.12 | 6.75 | 0.1896 | 77.35 | 5.58 | 10/45/45 |
2018 | 52.85 | 13.92 | 7.36 | 6.56 | 0.1911 | 82.38 | 5.92 | 10/44/46 |
2019 | 54.38 | 13.97 | 7.60 | 6.37 | 0.1928 | 87.74 | 6.28 | 10/44/46 |
2020 | 55.90 | 14.03 | 7.84 | 6.19 | 0.1948 | 93.44 | 6.66 | 10/44/46 |
2021 | 57.41 | 14.07 | 8.08 | 5.99 | 0.1966 | 99.51 | 7.07 | 10/44/46 |
2022 | 58.91 | 14.12 | 8.32 | 5.8 | 0.1983 | 105.98 | 7.51 | 10/44/46 |
2023 | 60.40 | 14.17 | 8.56 | 5.61 | 0.2003 | 112.87 | 7.97 | 10/44/46 |
2024 | 61.86 | 14.21 | 8.79 | 5.42 | 0.1997 | 120.21 | 8.46 | 10/44/46 |
2025 | 63.30 | 14.26 | 9.03 | 5.23 | 0.1989 | 128.02 | 8.98 | 10/43/47 |
2026 | 64.72 | 14.30 | 9.25 | 5.05 | 0.1984 | 136.34 | 9.53 | 10/43/47 |
2027 | 66.11 | 14.34 | 9.48 | 4.86 | 0.1965 | 145.20 | 10.13 | 10/43/47 |
2028 | 67.48 | 14.38 | 9.70 | 4.68 | 0.1954 | 154.64 | 10.75 | 10/43/47 |
2029 | 68.82 | 14.41 | 9.92 | 4.49 | 0.1932 | 164.70 | 11.43 | 10/43/47 |
2030 | 70.12 | 14.45 | 10.13 | 4.32 | 0.1903 | 175.40 | 12.14 | 10/43/47 |
Tab. 2
China's urbanization rate (by province) in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 (%)
区域 | 2015年 | 2020年 | 2025年 | 2030年 | 区域 | 2015年 | 2020年 | 2025年 | 2030年 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京 | 77.13 | 85.02 | 92.32 | 99.46 | 湖北 | 46.15 | 53.77 | 61.14 | 67.96 |
天津 | 72.91 | 81.26 | 89.10 | 98.64 | 湖南 | 43.58 | 51.82 | 59.85 | 67.36 |
河北 | 40.86 | 49.02 | 57.01 | 64.51 | 广东 | 64.30 | 76.21 | 87.81 | 96.07 |
山西 | 46.95 | 54.74 | 62.30 | 69.27 | 广西 | 40.86 | 48.49 | 55.95 | 62.90 |
内蒙古 | 52.34 | 60.34 | 68.04 | 75.11 | 海南 | 47.75 | 56.13 | 64.28 | 71.86 |
辽宁 | 57.67 | 64.30 | 70.51 | 76.04 | 重庆 | 52.09 | 62.77 | 73.24 | 83.09 |
吉林 | 48.79 | 53.64 | 58.12 | 62.02 | 四川 | 40.37 | 47.98 | 55.40 | 62.34 |
黑龙江 | 50.03 | 54.73 | 59.03 | 62.74 | 贵州 | 32.51 | 38.49 | 44.32 | 49.76 |
上海 | 79.78 | 87.43 | 94.46 | 99.89 | 云南 | 35.26 | 41.99 | 48.57 | 54.72 |
江苏 | 58.72 | 69.61 | 80.22 | 90.13 | 西藏 | 22.38 | 25.77 | 29.03 | 32.02 |
浙江 | 58.69 | 71.41 | 83.92 | 95.73 | 陕西 | 43.86 | 51.84 | 59.60 | 66.83 |
安徽 | 42.48 | 50.59 | 58.50 | 65.90 | 甘肃 | 32.36 | 37.94 | 43.35 | 48.38 |
福建 | 56.32 | 67.73 | 78.89 | 89.39 | 青海 | 40.49 | 45.97 | 51.19 | 55.92 |
江西 | 42.59 | 50.18 | 57.57 | 64.43 | 宁夏 | 43.67 | 50.56 | 57.21 | 63.34 |
山东 | 49.56 | 58.28 | 66.77 | 74.66 | 新疆 | 36.08 | 39.07 | 41.76 | 44.02 |
河南 | 38.62 | 45.81 | 52.81 | 59.36 | 全国 | 48.23 | 55.90 | 63.30 | 70.12 |
Tab. 3
The index of national and provincial urbanization quality in 2030
区域 | σ | 区域 | σ | 区域 | σ | 区域 | σ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京 | 0.6746 | 上海 | 0.6788 | 湖北 | 0.4377 | 云南 | 0.1465 |
天津 | 0.6763 | 江苏 | 0.6273 | 湖南 | 0.4452 | 西藏 | 0.0067 |
河北 | 0.4315 | 浙江 | 0.6165 | 广东 | 0.6077 | 陕西 | 0.2242 |
山西 | 0.2279 | 安徽 | 0.3815 | 广西 | 0.2158 | 甘肃 | 0.0796 |
内蒙古 | 0.4525 | 福建 | 0.5713 | 海南 | 0.3856 | 青海 | 0.0719 |
辽宁 | 0.4769 | 江西 | 0.2261 | 重庆 | 0.4667 | 宁夏 | 0.1429 |
吉林 | 0.3419 | 山东 | 0.6046 | 四川 | 0.2558 | 新疆 | 0.1391 |
黑龙江 | 0.2463 | 河南 | 0.3925 | 贵州 | 0.0348 | 全国 | 0.4371 |
Tab. 4
The population dynamics and urbanization investment in China and provinces, 2015 to 2030
区域 | 2030年 总人口 (万人) | 2030年 城镇 人口 (万人) | 2015-2030年城镇自 身再生产人口(万人) | 2015-2030年农村转入城镇人口(万人) | 2015-2030年城镇增加人口 (万人) | 2015-2030年新型城 镇化建设所需资金(万亿元) | 2015-2030年城镇化建设所需资金占全国的比例(%) | 2015-2030年GDP 累计总量 (万亿元) | 2015-2030年城镇化所需资金占GDP累计总量的比例(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京 | 2992.12 | 2975.96 | 198.10 | 923.25 | 1121.35 | 3.07 | 2.91 | 53.60 | 5.73 |
天津 | 1604.24 | 1582.42 | 105.34 | 446.25 | 551.59 | 1.51 | 1.43 | 31.50 | 4.79 |
河北 | 7500.32 | 4838.46 | 322.09 | 1477.44 | 1799.53 | 4.92 | 4.67 | 74.87 | 6.57 |
山西 | 4729.47 | 3276.10 | 218.10 | 1049.87 | 1267.97 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 35.46 | 9.76 |
内蒙古 | 2524.87 | 1896.43 | 126.25 | 489.21 | 615.46 | 1.69 | 1.60 | 48.65 | 3.47 |
辽宁 | 4388.53 | 3337.04 | 222.15 | 710.59 | 932.74 | 2.56 | 2.43 | 72.24 | 3.54 |
吉林 | 2800.62 | 1736.94 | 115.63 | 328.77 | 444.4 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 34.80 | 3.51 |
黑龙江 | 3760.28 | 2359.20 | 157.05 | 382.82 | 539.87 | 1.49 | 1.41 | 38.59 | 3.86 |
上海 | 3011.63 | 3008.32 | 200.26 | 937.24 | 1137.5 | 3.1 | 2.94 | 63.49 | 4.88 |
江苏 | 8170.34 | 7363.93 | 490.22 | 2209.68 | 2699.9 | 7.37 | 6.99 | 157.33 | 4.68 |
浙江 | 5946.81 | 5692.88 | 378.98 | 2089.71 | 2468.69 | 6.73 | 6.39 | 98.13 | 6.86 |
安徽 | 6059.40 | 3993.14 | 265.83 | 1112.78 | 1378.61 | 3.77 | 3.58 | 50.14 | 7.52 |
福建 | 4068.70 | 3637.01 | 242.11 | 1205.90 | 1448.01 | 3.95 | 3.75 | 56.57 | 6.98 |
江西 | 4680.76 | 3015.81 | 200.76 | 888.50 | 1089.26 | 2.98 | 2.83 | 38.10 | 7.82 |
山东 | 9799.01 | 7315.94 | 487.03 | 2079.85 | 2566.88 | 7.01 | 6.65 | 141.50 | 4.95 |
河南 | 9494.06 | 5635.67 | 375.16 | 1584.68 | 1959.84 | 5.36 | 5.09 | 83.78 | 6.40 |
湖北 | 5563.67 | 3781.07 | 251.72 | 909.88 | 1161.6 | 3.18 | 3.02 | 65.31 | 4.87 |
湖南 | 6415.51 | 4321.49 | 287.69 | 1206.37 | 1494.06 | 4.09 | 3.88 | 66.13 | 6.18 |
广东 | 14470.67 | 13901.97 | 925.45 | 5381.01 | 6306.46 | 17.17 | 16.29 | 164.42 | 10.44 |
广西 | 4853.91 | 3053.11 | 203.24 | 865.63 | 1068.87 | 2.92 | 2.77 | 38.92 | 7.50 |
海南 | 1066.60 | 766.46 | 51.03 | 255.15 | 306.18 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 10.39 | 7.99 |
重庆 | 2690.93 | 2235.89 | 148.85 | 601.95 | 750.8 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 34.14 | 6.00 |
四川 | 7785.76 | 4853.64 | 323.12 | 1289.88 | 1613 | 4.41 | 4.18 | 69.93 | 6.31 |
贵州 | 3701.60 | 1841.92 | 122.62 | 509.82 | 632.44 | 1.73 | 1.64 | 17.81 | 9.71 |
云南 | 5194.26 | 2842.30 | 189.22 | 923.60 | 1112.82 | 3.03 | 2.88 | 29.69 | 10.21 |
西藏 | 366.95 | 117.50 | 7.83 | 35.93 | 43.76 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1.98 | 6.06 |
陕西 | 3844.83 | 2569.50 | 171.06 | 737.61 | 908.67 | 2.48 | 2.35 | 42.88 | 5.78 |
甘肃 | 2709.57 | 1310.89 | 87.27 | 368.20 | 455.47 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 16.16 | 7.67 |
青海 | 649.93 | 363.44 | 24.20 | 99.82 | 124.02 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 5.44 | 6.25 |
宁夏 | 783.91 | 496.53 | 33.05 | 156.82 | 189.87 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 7.26 | 7.16 |
新疆 | 2896.73 | 1275.14 | 84.88 | 309.75 | 394.63 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 21.44 | 5.04 |
全国 | 144526.00 | 101341.63 | 7016.26 | 31567.96 | 38584.22 | 105.38 | 100.00 | 1649.21 | 6.39 |
Tab. 5
The investment intensity index of China's new urbanization construction, 2015-2030
区域 | δ | 区域 | δ | 区域 | δ | 区域 | δ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
贵州 | 0.5933 | 安徽 | 0.2836 | 黑龙江 | 0.0764 | 山东 | -0.2849 |
西藏 | 0.5255 | 青海 | 0.2654 | 广东 | 0.0474 | 浙江 | -0.4388 |
云南 | 0.5195 | 河南 | 0.2267 | 陕西 | 0.0163 | 辽宁 | -0.4864 |
甘肃 | 0.4845 | 四川 | 0.2122 | 全国 | 0.0000 | 北京 | -0.5809 |
山西 | 0.3666 | 宁夏 | 0.1951 | 湖北 | -0.0454 | 江苏 | -0.7182 |
新疆 | 0.3420 | 海南 | 0.1609 | 重庆 | -0.1164 | 内蒙古 | -0.7412 |
广西 | 0.3057 | 河北 | 0.1269 | 吉林 | -0.1225 | 天津 | -0.7501 |
江西 | 0.2976 | 湖南 | 0.0947 | 福建 | -0.2107 | 上海 | -0.8772 |
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