节能和就业导向下中国中部地区产业结构优化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606007

Abstract

Abstract:

Optimizing industrial structure is an important research object of human-economic geography, and it is also the object of government departments to strengthen macro-control. This has become even greater problem that China has entered the "new normal" in recent years. The study uses a multi-regional input-output model, with linear programming to build an optimal model of industrial structure as well as a model of optimization degree under the energy constraint. The results show that: (1) Under the constraint of energy conservation, the optimization degree of industrial structure of Anhui province is the highest (0.763), while that of Shanxi is the lowest (0.662). Under the constraint of employment, the optimization degree of industrial structure of Jiangxi is the highest (0.768), while that of Shanxi is the lowest (0.659). (2) Under the constraint of energy conservation, the optimization degree of industrial structure is negatively related to the energy consumption per unit of output value and the proportion of heavy industry. Under the constraint of employment, the optimization degree of industrial structure is negatively related to the proportions of state-owned economy and large enterprises. (3) Considering different orientations of energy conservation and employment, the directions of industrial structure optimization of the six provinces in central China are obviously different. (4) As a whole, central China should maintain or moderately increase the proportion of resource-based industry, greatly raise the proportion of manufacturing including transport equipment and communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, moderately reduce the proportion of smelting and pressing of metals and manufacture of non-metallic mineral products. In terms of services, central China should greatly increase the proportions of the production and supply of gas and water industry and tourism, moderately or greatly reduce the proportions of wholesale and retail trade and catering, and maintain or moderately reduce the proportions of transportation and warehousing.

Key words: central China, multiregional input-output model, linear programming, industrial structure, employment, energy consumption, China

Wei SUN, Wenhui LI, Wenzhong ZHANG, Zhipeng TANG. Industrial structure optimization in central China under energy conservation and employment constraints[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 984-997.

Figures/Tables 16

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 8

Tab. 6

Fig. 1

Tab. 7

Codes of optimized industrial departments among six provinces in central China

	较大提高 (2.16%≤ $Δ i p$ ?5.16%)	适度提高 (0.18%≤ $Δ i p$ ?2.16%)	基本不变 (-2.60%≤ $Δ i p$ ?0.18%)	适度降低 (-6.55%≤ $Δ i p$ ?-2.60%)	较大降低 (-11.74%≤ $Δ i p$ ?-6.55%)
山西	5,9,10,13,17,18,19,20,21	4,6,7,8,16,23	1,3,11,12,15,26	22,24,25,27	2,14
安徽	4,5,10,15,19,20,21,23	2,3,7,8,9,11,25	12,13,14,16,17,18,22,26	1,6	24,27
江西	5,15,20,21,23	2,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,16,17,18,19,22,25	1,6,13,26	12,27	14,24
河南	3,19,20,23	2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11,15,17,18,19,21,22,25	12,14,26	1,6,13,16,24	27
湖北	4,5,9,11,18,19,20,21,23	2,3,7,8,10,15,16,17	13,14,25,26	1,6,12,22	24,27
湖南	4,5,7,8,15,19,20,21,23	2,3,9,10,17,18,22,25	11,12,13,16	1,6,14,26	24,27

Tab. 7

Tab. 9

Tab. 10

Fig. 1

Fig. 3

Tab. 11

Codes of optimized industrial departments among six provinces in central China

	较大提高 (2.00%≤ $Δ i p$ ?3.42%)	适度提高 (0.35%≤ $Δ i p$ ?2.00%)	基本不变 (-2.03%≤ $Δ i p$ ?0.35%)	适度降低 (-6.08%≤ $Δ i p$ ?-2.03%)	较大降低 (-11.08%≤ $Δ i p$ ?-6.08%)
山西	3,4,5,7,8,9,10,17,18,19,20,21,23	6,12,13,15,16	1,11	22,25,26	2,14,24,27
安徽	3,4,5,10,15,19,20,21,23	2,7,8,9,11,22	13,14,16,17,25,26	1,6,12,18	24,27
江西	3,5,15,20,21,23	2,4,7,8,9,11,13,16,17,19,25	1,6,10,18,22	12,26,27	14,24,
河南	3,5,19,20,23	2,4,7,8,9,10,11,15,17,18,21,22,25	12,26	1,6,13,14,16,24	27
湖北	2,3,4,5,9,11,18,20,21,23	8,10,13,15,19,22	7,12,14,16,17,25	1,6,26	24,27
湖南	3,4,5,7,8,15,19,20,21,23	2,9,10,11,13,17,18,22	12,25	1,6,14,16,24,26	27

Tab. 11

Tab. 12

Codes of optimized industrial departments under energy constraint among six provinces in central China

	提高类 (0.18%≤ $Δ i p$ <5.16%)	基本不变 (-2.60%≤ $Δ i p$ <0.18%)	降低类 (-11.74%≤ $Δ i p$ <-2.60%)
山西	19,20,21	3,11	2,14,24
安徽	5,20,23	13,16	6,24,27
江西	20,21,23	1,6	14,24,27
河南	3,19,23	12,26	6,16,27
湖北	4,20,23	14,25	1,24,27
湖南	5,20,23	11,13	1,24,27

Tab. 12

Tab. 13

Codes of optimized industry departments under the employment constraint among six provinces in central China

	提高类 (0.35%≤ $Δ i p$ <3.42%)	基本不变 (-2.03%≤ $Δ i p$ <0.35%)	降低类 (-11.08%≤ $Δ i p$ <-2.03%)
山西	3,20,21	1,11	2,14,27
安徽	5,20,23	13,25	1,24,27
江西	3,21,23	10,18	12,14,24
河南	3,20,23	12,26	1,6,27
湖北	2,3,4	7,16	6,24,27
湖南	5,21,23	12,25	1,24,27

Tab. 13

References 21

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指标项	总量	比重(%)	指标项	总量	比重(%)
土地面积(万km²)	101.66	10.59	工业企业利润(万亿元)	1.21	19.32
总人口(亿人)	3.61	26.52	城镇单位就业人员(亿人)	1.81	21.00
城镇人口(亿人)	1.75	23.93	全社会固定资产投资(万亿元)	10.57	23.69
国内生产总值(万亿元)	12.73	22.38	非农化率(%)	0.88	98.01
工业增加值(万亿元)	2.11	27.48	地方公共财政收入(万亿元)	1.20	17.44
规模以上工业企业数(万个)	35.25	20.76	城镇居民人均可支配收入(元)	22736	84.35
人均国内生产总值(元)	35279	84.39	农民人均纯收入(元)	8377	94.16

编号	产业部门	编号	产业部门
1	农林牧渔业	15	金属制品业
2	煤炭开采和洗选业	16	通用、专用设备制造业
3	石油和天然气开采业	17	交通运输设备制造业
4	金属矿采选业	18	电气机械及器材制造业
5	非金属矿及其他矿采选业	19	通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业
6	食品制造及烟草加工业	20	仪器仪表及文化办公机械制造业
7	纺织业	21	其他制造业
8	纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业	22	电力、热力的生产和供应业
9	木材加工及家具制造业	23	燃气及水的生产与供应业
10	造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业	24	建筑业
11	石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业	25	交通运输及仓储业
12	化学工业	26	批发零售业和餐饮业
13	非金属矿物制品业	27	其他服务业
14	金属冶炼及压延加工业

	单位GDP能耗(tce/万元)	单位工业增加值能耗(tce/万元)	重工业总产值比重(%)
Pearson相关系数	-0.879*	-0.890*	-0.887*
显著性(双侧)	0.021	0.018	0.018
样本个数	6	6	6

	2005年			2010年
	GDP能耗(tce/万元)		工业增加值能耗(tce/万元)	GDP能耗(tce/万元)	工业增加值能耗(tce/万元)
山西	2.95	6.50		1.83	3.66
安徽	1.21	3.13		0.79	1.83
江西	1.06	3.11		0.67	2.05
河南	1.38	4.02		0.93	2.17
湖北	1.51	3.50		0.95	2.47
湖南	1.40	2.88		0.93	2.51
中部地区	-	-		0.98	2.41
全国	1.22	2.59		0.70	1.92

	轻工业总产值			重工业总产值
	绝对值(亿元)		比重(%)	绝对值(亿元)	比重(%)
山西	671.28	5.38		11800.06	94.62
河南	10601.23	30.29		24394.3	69.71
安徽	5566.43	29.72		13165.57	70.28
江西	4143.19	29.84		9739.88	70.16
湖南	5477.86	28.82		13530.97	71.18
湖北	5935.78	27.45		15687.33	72.55
中部地区	32395.77	26.84		88318.11	73.16
全国	200071.53	28.64		498519.01	71.36

Industrial structure optimization in central China under energy conservation and employment constraints

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Figures/Tables 16

References 21

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	工业总产值国有经济比重	从业人员国有比重	大型企业比重
Pearson相关系数	-0.840^*	-0.979^**	-0.986^**
显著性(双侧)	0.037	0.001	0.000
样本个数	6	6	6

	工业总产值(亿元)				从业人员(万人)
	规模以上		国有及国有控股	国有比重(%)	规模以上	国有及国有控股	国有比重(%)
山西	12471.33	6614.18	53.04		219.88	119.16	54.19
安徽	18732	6902.07	36.85		264.87	80.68	30.46
江西	13883.06	3444.72	24.81		199.16	41.21	20.69
河南	34995.53	8453.93	24.16		479.27	131.42	27.42
湖北	21623.12	8619.21	39.86		294.97	79.98	27.11
湖南	19008.83	5364.78	28.22		272.44	60.6	22.24
中部地区	120713.87	39398.89	32.64		1730.59	513.05	29.65
全国	698590.54	185861.02	26.61		9544.71	1836.34	19.24

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