中国对外贸易产品空间路径演化

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606006

Abstract

Abstract:

Regional economic development is closely related to its productive structure, which evolves constantly. Economic geographers argue that the evolution of regional productive structure is path-dependent and stress the importance of technological relatedness. However, recent studies also suggest that regional and industrial policies may help create a new path of regional development. This study follows the method proposed by Hidalgo to measure technological relatedness and generate product space of Chinese exports using the trade data of China's 31 provinces during 2001-2013. The results show that China has experienced substantial structural transformation in export products, but there are significant regional differences. The coastal region has shifted from the labor intensive to capital and technology intensive products, the central and northeastern regions have first evolved from the resource intensive to labor intensive products, and then to capital and technology intensive products. The western region has transferred from the resource intensive to labor intensive structures. Econometric analysis reports that the evolution of export products of the four regions was significantly driven by technological relatedness during 2001-2007. Technological relatedness still played its role during 2008-2013 for the eastern, central and northeastern regions. But in the western region, regional and industrial policies support the structural transformation of export products. The significance of technological relatedness implies that the evolution of regional export products in China is path dependent. The role of regional policies suggest that institutions may create a new development path.

Key words: evolutionary economic geography, product space, technological relatedness, Chinese trade

Canfei HE, Yao DONG, Yi ZHOU. Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking?[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 969-983.

Figures/Tables 13

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名称	平均复杂度	主要分属	名称	平均复杂度	主要分属
动植物产品	0.115	下部	鞋帽伞杖等制品及零件	0.145	左部
食品饮料及烟酒	0.138	下部	陶瓷与玻璃产品	0.118	左部
矿产品	0.185	上部	金属制品	0.150	左部、下部
化工及相关产品	0.120	下部	一般机械器具及零件	0.194	下部、上部
塑料及橡胶制品	0.124	左部	发电机、电器与通讯工具	0.222	上部
皮具	0.139	左部	交通工具	0.181	上部
木与木制品	0.156	下部	光学、照相、电影仪器与设备	0.224	上部
木浆与纸制品	0.189	左部	家具、灯具、玩具等杂项制品	0.156	左部
纺织原料及纺织制品	0.137	左部、下部

东部	中部	西部	东北
化工及相关产品(53)	化工及相关产品(42)	金属制品(56)	矿产品(33)
金属制品(48)	矿产品(38)	化工及相关产品(54)	金属制品(31)
矿产品(46)	纺织原料与制品(34)	纺织原料与制品(53)	化工及相关产品(29)
电器与通讯工具(40)	金属制品(30)	动植物相关产品(40)	交通工具(25)
动植物相关产品(39)	电器与通讯工具(28)	食品饮料及烟酒(37)	纺织原料与制品(23)
交通工具(38)	一般机械器具(26)	一般机械器具(33)	动植物相关产品(19)
一般机械器具(35)	动植物相关产品(23)	矿产品(32)	一般机械器具(16)
纺织原料与制品(28)	木浆与纸制品(19)	家具等杂项制品(28)	电器与通讯工具(13)

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.50^***	1.51^***	1.54^***	1.52^***	1.55^***
出口产品技术关联ETR	5.22^***	4.83^***	3.62^***	4.27^***	3.75^***
东部×ETR		0.02
中部×ETR			0.21^***
西部×ETR				0.13^***
东北×ETR					0.06^**
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	155620	155620	155620	155620	155620
虚拟判定系数	0.357	0.355	0.349	0.352	0.349
对数似然函数值	-50031	-50143	-50622	-50397	-50641

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.77^***	1.77^***	1.77^***	1.76^***	1.77^***
进口产品技术关联ITR	1.51^***	2.62^***	1.43^***	0.94^***	1.41^***
东部×ITR		-0.19^***
中部×ITR			0.22^***
西部×ITR				0.30^***
东北×ITR					-0.05 ^***
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	155620	155620	155620	155620	155620
虚拟判定系数	0.314	0.315	0.314	0.315	0.314
对数似然函数值	-53330	-53290	-53377	-53250	-53392

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.60^***	1.61^***	1.63^***	1.60^***	1.63^***
出口产品技术关联ETR	3.33^***	1.94^***	2.43^***	5.05^***	2.46^***
东部×ETR		0.41^***
中部×ED			0.19^***
西部×ETR				-0.43^***
东北×ETR					0.28^***
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	116715	116715	116715	116715	116715
虚拟判定系数	0.337	0.343	0.335	0.347	0.335
对数似然函数值	-41144	-40747	-41303	-40540	-41292

Evolution of export product space in China: Path-dependent or path-breaking?

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References 36

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	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.84^***	1.84^***	1.84^***	1.85^***	1.84^***
产品进口技术关联ITR	0.55^***	0.62^***	0.47^**	0.58^***	0.47^***
东部×ITR		0.01
中部×ITR			0.16^***
西部×ITR				-0.21^***
东北×ITR					0.04^*
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
年份	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	116715	116715	116715	116715	116715
虚拟判定系数	0.317	0.316	0.316	0.317	0.317
对数似然函数值	-42421	-42460	-42461	-42418	-42420

	总体	东部	中部	西部	东北
原始优势	1.11^***	1.07^***	0.96^***	0.85^***	0.91^***
政策	2.43^***	2.66^***	2.53^***	2.82^***	2.68^***
东部×政策		-0.48^***
中部×政策			0.03
西部×政策				0.33^***
东北×政策					-0.37^***
产品类别	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
区域	yes	yes	yes	yes	yes
N	38905	38905	38905	38905	38905
虚拟判定系数	0.315	0.325	0.310	0.315	0.315
对数似然函数值.	-14631	-14422	-14745	-14625	-14631

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