中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb201606005

Abstract

Abstract:

The interdependence of economics among countries has been distinctly enhanced due to the end of the Cold War and the intensification of globalization. In terms of its content and form, geo-politics has shifted from a "high political area", which focuses on safety, to a "low political area", which emphasizes economics, making geo-economics the focus of the researches. Using tools including Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), Fragmentation Index and Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, this paper revealed China's evolutionary characteristics of geo-economic connections at the global scale, and explored its internal mechanism by grey relational analysis. The results show: (1) China's geo-economic connections have undergone 4 periods of "Inoculating - Sprouting - Rising - Flourishing", which were significantly correlated to economic development and the industrial restructuring. (2) Labor-intensive industry is currently dominant in China, but capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries are gradually developing, and the disadvantages of primary goods is prominent. (3) China's economic power is heterogeneous across space. The geo-economic connections could be identified as global powers' agglomeration and geographical proximity, but it became homogeneous through time and the diameter of economic power has continuously expanded. China has not only maintained stable geo-economic connections with developed countries like the United States of America, Japan and some European countries, but also strengthened connections with developing countries in Africa and South America. (4) Capital, technology and labor endowments are the main internal driving forces behind the spatial-temporal evolution of China's geo-economic connections, among which capital endowment is the key driving force, technology endowment is the important impetus and labor endowment is the fundamental advantage.

Key words: geo-economics, spatial-temporal evolution, production endowment, internal mechanism, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), China

Wenlong YANG, Debin DU, Chengliang LIU, Yahua MA. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geo-economic connections of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(6): 956-969.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 31

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年份	初级产品			劳动密集型			资本和技术密集型
年份	SITC0+SITC1		SITC2+SITC4	SITC3	SITC6	SITC8	SITC5	SITC7	SITC9
2001	0.770	0.478	0.321	1.208	2.593		0.520	0.885	0.056
2002	0.715	0.404	0.273	1.178	2.472		0.456	0.972	0.055
2003	0.644	0.335	0.250	1.153	2.330		0.423	1.091	0.056
2004	0.548	0.279	0.217	1.208	2.236		0.417	1.168	0.049
2005	0.521	0.281	0.167	1.230	2.239		0.444	1.234	0.063
2006	0.489	0.224	0.125	1.284	2.242		0.446	1.270	0.070
2007	0.450	0.191	0.113	1.262	2.264		0.471	1.315	0.045
2008	0.397	0.199	0.125	1.346	2.307		0.532	1.399	0.029
2009	0.401	0.175	0.118	1.218	2.180		0.449	1.46	0.026
2010	0.420	0.162	0.109	1.222	2.220		0.499	1.467	0.019
2011	0.428	0.164	0.095	1.301	2.324		0.558	1.494	0.026
2012	0.409	0.155	0.081	1.324	2.430		0.524	1.477	0.015

	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	200年9	2010年	2011年	2012年
Moran's I	0.210	0.214	0.220	0.230	0.224	0.230	0.230	0.225	0.218	0.216	0.219	0.219
Z值	8.103	8.155	8.286	8.541	8.343	8.479	8.479	8.206	8.022	7.880	7.874	7.927
P值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年
出口碎化指数	7.22	7.22	7.40	7.50	7.62	7.87	8.10	8.39	8.43	8.44	8.51	8.56
进口碎化指数	6.68	6.65	6.78	6.96	7.00	7.05	7.15	7.31	7.37	7.51	7.68	7.80
进出口碎化指数	7.36	7.34	7.50	7.64	7.76	7.97	8.14	8.39	8.41	8.47	8.58	8.65
出口均匀度指数	0.541	0.548	0.560	0.572	0.586	0.600	0.624	0.644	0.639	0.649	0.654	0.659
进口均匀度指数	0.570	0.553	0.557	0.579	0.591	0.594	0.612	0.639	0.644	0.652	0.670	0.676
进出口均匀度指数	0.571	0.567	0.576	0.591	0.606	0.617	0.637	0.661	0.660	0.668	0.680	0.684

系统类型	指标类型	指标	关联度
资本禀赋	投资水平	投资总额(亿元)	0.752
		对外直接投资	0.593
		利用外资	0.683
	生产水平	人均国内生产总值	0.849
	生产水平	GDP(亿元)	0.862
	消费水平	居民消费水平(元)	0.793
结构禀赋	工业发展水平	第二产业产值占GDP比重	0.564
	工业发展水平	工业产值占第二产业比值	0.557
	第三产业发展水平	第三产业产值占GDP比重	0.579
	就业结构	第二产业就业人口比	0.629
	就业结构	第三产业就业人口比	0.598
人力禀赋	就业水平	就业人员合计(万人)	0.568
	就业水平	就业人口占总人口比重	0.560
	劳动力水平	年平均工资	0.823
	劳动力水平	就业人员高中及高中以上学历构成比	0.599
科技禀赋	科技投入	研究与试验发展折合全时人员(万人)	0.774
	科技投入	研究与试验发展经费支出(亿元)	0.767
	科技产出	技术市场成交额(亿元)	0.822
		科技成果登记数	0.641
		国外主要检索工具收录中国论文总数	0.666

Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and internal mechanism of geo-economic connections of China

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