上海迪士尼在建景区客源市场空间结构预测----旅游引力模型的修正及应用

doi:10.11821/dlxb201602010

Abstract

Abstract:

The market forecast plays a key role in tourism decision-making. However, due to lack of historical data, it remains an unsolved problem for the tourist market forecast of destinations which are not yet open to the public. Shanghai Disneyland has attracted wide attention for its huge investment and profound influence. With its forthcoming development, it is imperative to carry out a theoretical research in this field.

The existing tourism gravity model is presented with three main explanatory variables: attractiveness of tourist destination, emissiveness of tourist origin, and spatial damping between the destination and origin. This paper makes modifications on the model as follows: (1) It introduces tourist rate which aims at replacing total population with tourist population to measure the tourist scale and accurately determine its base quota. (2) It introduces the element of tourist willingness, which is measured and estimated by using Baidu Index to clarify the preference for tourism destination. Thus, the scope of applying gravity model is not solely confined within the large and medium-scale tourist destinations (namely, cities, provinces and countries). The modified gravity model can also be applicable to the small-scale tourist destinations (namely, scenic spots). Likewise, it will avoid the interference of intervening opportunity. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between any two variables in the modified model.

Based on statistics of mainland tourists to Hong Kong Disneyland and socioeconomic statistics of China's provinces and municipalities from 2009 to 2013, this paper forecasts the spatial structure of domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland through the modified gravity model. The research shows that: (1) Disneyland's strong brand effect drives tourists to overcome obstacles, so the impact brought about by spatial damping is reduced to some degree; as a whole, tourism demand of mainland tourists for Disneyland is inelastic. (2) The spatial distribution of domestic tourist market of Shanghai Disneyland remains strongly concentrated in neighboring regions accoding to the distance-decay theory. It is also mainly concentrated in eastern region and major cities driven by level of socioeconomic development. Based on the forecast of this paper, the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to account for 71.45% of the domestic market share, and China's eastern region occupies 82.40%, 39 major cities 41.44%. (3) Through verification, the coincident degree between the theoretical value deduced from the modified tourism gravity model and the actual value is better than that between the theoretical value deduced from the existing model and the actual value. Accordingly, the newly modified tourism gravity model proves to be more effective than the existing model.

Key words: Disneyland, theme park, gravity model, tourist market, spatial structure, forecast

Shaopai LIU, Jipeng TIAN, Lin LU. A case study of Shanghai Disneyland on spatial structure forecast for proposed scenic spot market: Modification and its application of gravity model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(2): 304-.

Figures/Tables 16

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Segmentation of mainland tourists to Hong Kong Disneyland by different distances from 2010 to 2013

内地各省会城市到香港的球面距离( $r$ , km)	香港迪士尼乐园内地客源市场分割(p)
内地各省会城市到香港的球面距离( $r$ , km)	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年
200	0.662	0.457	0.348	0.321
500	0.662	0.463	0.353	0.325
1000	0.746	0.558	0.459	0.475
2000	0.950	0.965	0.970	0.951
3000	0.990	0.995	0.995	0.993
3500	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Tab. 6

Tab. 7

Tab. 8

Tab. 9

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 10

Tab. 11

Fig.4

Fig. 5

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省,市,区	旅游人口(万人次)	对上海迪士尼出游意愿(百度指数%)	人均GDP(元)	到上海球面距离 (km)
上海	4467	20.9	85033	0
浙江	6782	12.8	63266	169.1
江苏	7932	13.5	68347	266.2
安徽	4661	8.9	28792	402.3
江西	2385	6.8	28799	610.8
福建	4265	8.5	52763	611.0
湖北	6297	8.5	38572	683.7
山东	8717	9.8	51768	728.9
河南	6441	9.1	31723	826.6
湖南	8179	7.1	33480	886.4
天津	2399	8.0	93110	962.8
河北	5096	8.4	36584	991.2
北京	4296	10.7	87091	1064.7
山西	2289	7.3	33628	1099.4
辽宁	5386	8.0	56547	1190.9
广东	14266	10.9	54095	1213.3
陕西	5052	7.6	38557	1223.2
内蒙古	1954	4.2	64319	1374.3
吉林	2005	6.4	43412	1444.4
重庆	3805	4.8	39083	1445.3
贵州	3077	3.4	19566	1527.5
青海	427	0.6	33023	1595.2
广西	3367	5.4	27943	1602.9
海南	712	2.4	32374	1630.5
四川	9120	7.4	29579	1659.0
黑龙江	2693	6.8	35711	1675.1
甘肃	3192	3.5	21978	1717.9
宁夏	393	1.4	36166	1912.8
云南	4259	4.3	22195	1950.0
新疆	1942	3.5	33796	3268.8

城市	旅游人口(万人次)	对上海迪士尼出游意愿(百度指数%)	人均GDP(元)	到上海球面距离(km)
上海	4467	20.9	85033	0
苏州	697	8.4	114029	82.3
宁波	613	6.5	114065	94.4
无锡	488	6.4	117357	118.2
杭州	870	9.1	111758	169.1
南京	618	8.2	88525	266.2
合肥	512	6.4	55182	402.3
青岛	758	4.6	82680	553.2
南昌	265	4.9	58715	610.8
福州	729	5.7	58202	611.0
武汉	918	7.1	79482	683.7
济南	569	6.5	69444	728.9
厦门	246	4.3	77340	823.8
郑州	750	7.2	62054	826.6
大连	673	4.7	102922	855.2
长沙	804	5.0	89903	886.4
天津	2399	8.0	93173	962.8
石家庄	554	4.9	53381	991.2
北京	4296	10.7	87475	1064.7
太原	263	4.8	54440	1099.4
沈阳	927	4.4	80480	1190.9
深圳	625	6.8	123247	1209.2
广州	1293	8.0	105909	1213.3
西安	1371	6.8	51166	1223.2
珠海	161	1.6	95471	1266.8
桂林	213	1.0	30849	1279.9
呼和浩特	179	2.8	83906	1374.3
长春	556	4.7	58691	1444.4
重庆	3805	4.8	38914	1445.3
贵阳	474	2.3	38673	1527.5
西宁	147	0.5	38034	1595.2
南宁	479	3.1	37016	1602.9
海口	164	2.2	38633	1630.5
成都	1355	6.0	57624	1659.0
哈尔滨	651	5.0	45810	1675.1
兰州	453	2.1	43175	1717.9
银川	108	1.3	54053	1912.8
昆明	543	3.4	46256	1950.0
乌鲁木齐	214	2.7	59576	3268.8

年份	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年
香港迪士尼乐园游客总人次(百万)	4.5	4.6	5.2	5.9	6.7	7.4
香港迪士尼乐园营业总收入(亿港元)	25.68	25.41	30.13	36.3	42.72	48.96
香港迪士尼乐园人均花费(港元)	570.67	552.39	579.42	615.25	637.61	661.62
港元对人民币的汇率	0.8802	0.8805	0.8509	0.8107	0.8108	0.7862
香港迪士尼乐园人均花费(元)	503.27	486.38	493.03	498.79	516.98	520.17
中国内地人均GDP(元)	23708	25608	30015	35198	38459	41908

方程	模型汇总						参数估计值
方程	R²		F	df1	df2	Sig.	206.640	b1
幂	0.548	4.855	1	4	0.092		29.062	0.086

省,市,区	2010年(%)	2011年(%)	2012年 (%)	2013年(%)	到香港的球面距离(km)
广东	66.17	45.68	34.80	32.07	132.0
海南	0.00	0.61	0.55	0.43	443.8
广西	0.50	0.49	1.10	1.59	601.6
湖南	1.49	1.71	1.47	2.13	664.6
福建	2.49	3.65	4.03	5.24	669.2
江西	1.00	0.24	1.10	0.91	730.0
贵州	0.00	0.73	0.55	0.43	893.1
湖北	2.98	2.67	2.29	4.70	925.0
浙江	2.98	3.17	4.57	4.76	1064.5
安徽	0.00	0.37	1.28	1.95	1106.1
重庆	1.49	0.97	1.10	2.20	1108.3
江苏	2.98	1.95	4.49	4.21	1176.2
云南	1.00	1.22	0.82	0.98	1189.4
上海	4.47	8.53	14.38	9.82	1229.8
四川	0.50	2.67	3.01	2.68	1365.9
河南	0.00	1.83	1.74	1.89	1390.7
陕西	0.50	1.83	0.92	1.89	1426.4
山东	0.00	1.83	0.82	2.01	1617.0
山西	0.50	0.49	0.46	0.43	1737.7
河北	0.00	0.49	0.92	1.34	1749.7
甘肃	0.50	0.24	0.46	0.00	1826.8
天津	1.00	2.43	2.29	2.62	1895.4
宁夏	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	1935.4
北京	4.47	12.66	13.82	10.67	1969.1
青海	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1992.2
内蒙古	0.50	0.24	0.18	0.30	2070.9
辽宁	2.98	1.95	1.47	1.83	2336.2
西藏	0.00	0.12	0.09	0.00	2435.2
吉林	0.00	0.37	0.46	1.16	2607.7
黑龙江	0.50	0.37	0.37	0.91	2842.8
新疆	1.00	0.49	0.46	0.67	3413.0

A case study of Shanghai Disneyland on spatial structure forecast for proposed scenic spot market: Modification and its application of gravity model

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省,市,区	2008年(%)	2009年(%)	省,市,区	2008年(%)	2009年 (%)
上海	28.75	31.30	广东	2.85	3.29
浙江	12.83	11.10	陕西	0.93	0.68
江苏	17.81	18.42	内蒙古	0.50	0.34
安徽	6.48	7.12	吉林	0.57	0.34
江西	3.28	2.88	重庆	0.71	0.96
福建	2.71	1.85	贵州	0.78	1.30
湖北	2.71	2.47	青海	0.00	0.07
山东	2.98	2.19	广西	1.00	1.23
河南	2.64	3.01	海南	0.29	0.14
湖南	2.85	2.88	四川	2.00	1.78
天津	0.64	0.55	黑龙江	0.57	0.48
河北	0.93	0.68	甘肃	0.50	0.48
北京	1.78	1.44	宁夏	0.14	0.21
山西	1.21	0.89	云南	0.64	0.89
辽宁	0.71	0.55	新疆	0.21	0.48

各省会城市到上海的球面距离(r, km)	上海国内旅游客源市场分割(p)
各省会城市到上海的球面距离(r, km)	2008年	2009年
200	0.416	0.424
500	0.659	0.679
1000	0.846	0.845
2000	0.998	0.995
3000	0.998	0.995
3500	1.000	1.000

年份	2000年	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年
上海国内游客人均花费(元)	1248	1223	1134	1465	1430	1452	1466	1578	1465	1548
中国人均GDP(元)	7858	8622	9398	10542	12336	14185	16500	20169	23708	25608

省,市,区	2008年总人口(万人)	2009年总人口(万人)	2008年旅游人口(万人次)	2009年旅游人口(万人次)	对上海出游意愿(百度指数%)	2008年人均GDP(元)	2009年人均GDP(元)
上海	2141	2210	3704	3791	67.7	66932	69164
浙江	5212	5276	6175	6262	31.9	41405	43842
江苏	7762	7810	7867	7901	30.8	40014	44253
安徽	6135	6131	4635	4670	12.8	14448	16408
江西	4400	4432	2269	2303	10.5	15900	17335
福建	3639	3666	4110	4145	14.2	29755	33437
湖北	5711	5720	6079	6102	12.3	19858	22677
山东	9417	9470	8185	8275	16.9	32936	35894
河南	9429	9487	6408	6445	13.7	19181	20597
湖南	6380	6406	7769	7670	11.2	18147	20428
天津	1176	1228	1939	2036	11.7	58656	62574
河北	6989	7034	4659	4775	12.8	22986	24581
北京	1771	1860	3510	3649	21.4	64491	66940
山西	3411	3427	2095	2115	10.8	21506	21522
辽宁	4315	4341	5098	5129	14.1	31739	35149
广东	9893	10130	2392	12566	17.9	37638	39436
陕西	3718	3727	4534	4636	11.5	19700	21947
内蒙古	2444	2458	1895	1911	9.1	34869	39735
吉林	2734	2740	1994	1999	10.7	23521	26595
重庆	2839	2859	3484	3552	9.3	20490	22920
贵州	3596	3537	2749	2748	8.4	9855	10971
青海	554	557	411	413	3.1	18421	19454
广西	4816	4856	3215	3290	9.3	14652	16045
海南	854	864	672	684	6.7	17691	19254
四川	8138	8185	8839	8965	11.5	15495	17339
黑龙江	3825	3826	2658	2660	10.9	21740	22447
甘肃	2551	2555	3046	3059	8.0	12421	13269
宁夏	618	625	360	367	5.0	19609	21777
云南	4543	4571	3927	3987	8.5	12570	13539
新疆	2131	2159	1860	1885	7.8	19797	19942

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