华南地区1961-2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201601010

Abstract

Abstract:

In this study, summer long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI) is calculated based on the monthly precipitation data from May to August obtained from 110 weather stations in South China from 1961 to 2014. LDFAI, which compares the precipitation amounts under different disaster conditions, can reflect the features of drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China in summer. The spatial-temporal change of summer LDFAI in South China have been studied by rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis, trend coefficient estimation, linear trend analysis, t-test, and Mann-Kendall test. Results show the following: (1) the overall change trend of the average LDFAI in South China was not remarkable, whereas the LDFAI intensity exhibited significant periodic changes, including two strong periods and a weak period. (2) The summer LDFAI can be divided into five main spatial regions. The analysis of the data from the representative stations in different spatial regions showed that the summer LDFAI values in Region 1 (North Guangdong and Northeast Guangxi) and Region 2 (West Guangdong and Southeast Guangxi) demonstrated downward trends. The decline in Region 1 was significant, and an abrupt decline occurred in 1988. The summer LDFAI values in Region 3 (East Guangdong) and Region 5 (Hainan Island) showed significant upward trends. An abrupt rise occurred in Region 3 in 1980. The LDFAI in Region 4 (West Guangxi) exhibited periodic change features. (3) As regards the interdecadal change features of the LDFAI for the study period, the LDFAI values in Region 1 and Region 2 declined, whereas the amount of precipitation in May and June increased over the years. In the 1990s and 2000s, The LDFAI values in Region 3 and Region 4 were high, and the precipitation amount in July and August were higher than that in other months. In Region 5, the LDFAI increased, and the precipitation in July and August increased over the years as well.

Key words: South China, drought-flood abrupt alternation, spatial-temporal change features, abrupt change

HE Hui,LIAO Xueping,LU Hong,CHEN Sirong. Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(1): 129-141.

Figures/Tables 7

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Tab. 3

References 22

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年份	旱涝性质	区域平均LDFAI	5-8月降水距平百分率(%)	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)
1963年	旱	0.47	-29.8	-46.1	-11.4
1989年	旱	-0.15	-20.7	-35.8	-7.4
1990年	旱	-0.30	-20.5	-27.1	-14.7
1994年	涝	0.57	41.7	24.8	62.2
2001年	涝	0.49	29.6	38.2	22.1
2008年	涝	-0.46	25.8	43.3	6.0
1995年	旱转涝	2.41	2.8	-17.4	25.7
1967年	旱转涝	2.20	-6.8	-30.2	19.6
2004年	旱转涝	2.07	-5.6	-25.7	16.0
2005年	涝转旱	-2.19	9.9	35.3	-17.6
1998年	涝转旱	-1.95	5.3	25.6	-17.9
2010年	涝转旱	-1.67	-8.9	13.2	-29.5

序号	1	2	3	4	5
EOF贡献率	32.1	12.4	6.5	4.7	3.0
累积贡献率	32.1	44.5	51.0	55.7	58.7
REOF贡献率	25.1	11.7	9.1	8.9	3.9
累积贡献率	25.1	36.8	45.9	54.8	58.7

气候区	统计量	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s	2010s
华南全区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	-4.7	2.5	-8.5	-1.00	5.57	15.24
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	-4.0	0.3	-6.74	10.95	3.20	-9.26
	LDFAI指数	0.04	-0.16	0.09	0.06	0.11	-0.10
	LDFAI强度	0.83	0.56	0.33	0.94	1.13	0.87
1区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	-13.8	-1.1	-20.3	12.1	9.9	33.0
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	6.5	-5.8	-11.0	21.9	-1.8	-24.7
	LDFAI指数	0.78	0.35	0.65	-0.18	-1.70	-0.60
	LDFAI强度	1.12	0.82	1.30	1.34	2.64	1.24
2区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	-7.8	3.2	-8.7	-0.8	8.8	13.3
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	-0.8	6.3	-2.9	0.8	1.3	-11.6
	LDFAI指数	0.24	-0.08	0.06	-0.36	-0.28	-0.77
	LDFAI强度	0.86	0.66	0.82	0.93	1.48	0.87
3区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	-3.0	11.8	-12.1	-10.7	6.2	19.2
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	-14.6	-1.8	-3.3	14.1	11.4	-14.3
	LDFAI指数	-0.48	-0.86	0.15	1.87	1.73	-0.75
	LDFAI强度	1.16	1.40	0.30	2.49	2.74	0.75
4区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	3.1	4.4	-4.8	-11.1	8.9	-1.4
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	-1.0	0.7	-7.9	19.8	-4.4	-18.3
	LDFAI指数	-0.42	-0.28	-0.09	1.25	-0.83	-0.29
	LDFAI强度	1.10	1.42	0.52	1.82	0.98	0.63
5区	5-6月降水距平百分率(%)	-13.5	-5.0	21.4	13.1	-20.7	11.8
	7-8月降水距平百分率(%)	-14.0	-1.0	-7.5	0.9	12.7	21.9
	LDFAI指数	-0.16	0.30	-0.53	-0.28	1.63	1.45
	LDFAI强度	0.68	1.29	1.18	0.88	1.79	1.89

Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014

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