京津冀生产性服务业空间分工特征及溢出效应

doi:10.11821/dlxb201512006

Abstract

Abstract:

The rational space division of producer services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region plays an extremely important role in promoting coordinated and integrated regional development. In this research, we use the prefecture-level panel data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region for the period of 2003-2012 to estimate the spatial characteristics and industrial features of the producer service division in the region. We also estimate the spatial spillover effects of various producer service industries among the cities on the basis of a spatial panel econometric model. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Beijing and Tianjin exhibit diversification in the division system of their producer services, whereas 11 cities in Hebei Province show specialization, mostly focusing on the development of their financial service and transportation sectors. (2) The division index of the producer services between Beijing and Tianjin is relatively low, and the producer service structures of these cities show a convergence trend. (3) The division indexes of the financial, business, and information service sectors in the region are relatively high, whereas those of the technology and real estate service sectors are significantly low. (4) The spillover effects of the real estate and technology service sectors with a low division index are remarkable. However, as a result of the limitation of transaction cost and the demand for "face-to-face" contact, the spatial spillovers perform best at a distance of around 150 km. When the distance goes beyond this specified range, the spatial spillovers are evidently reduced. The spillover effects of the transportation, finance service, and business service sectors with a high division index are not significant and should improve the industrial linkage between cities in the future. The scope of the spatial effect of the information service sector is exceedingly limited, as it only reflects the correlation among neighboring cities. Results of this study demonstrate that spatial spillover performs satisfactorily, whereas the localization of the service sector is poor.

Key words: regional industrial division, producer service, spatial spillover effect, spatial panel econometrics, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region

Qiangmin XI, Guoping LI. Characteristics and spillover effects of space division of producer service in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region: Based on spatial panel model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(12): 1926-1938.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab.1

Fig. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Result of the spatial spillover effects on the producer service industries

行业	交通运输业			信息服务业			金融服务业
权重	邻接	地理	经济	邻接	地理	经济	邻接	地理	经济
模型	sem	sem	sem	sem	sem	sem	sar	sar	sdm
空间效应
$α$							-0.0298 (-0.21)	0.00606 (0.23)	0.0603 (0.77)
$λ$	-0.0987 (-0.64)	-0.0325 (-0.73)	0.00132 (0.02)	0.375^*** (3.35)	-0.0235 (-0.62)	-0.0162 (-2.5)
N	130	130	130	130	130	130	117	117	117
R²	0.82	0.823	0.817	0.602	0.644	0.639	0.95	0.938	0.904
行业	房地产服务业			商务服务业			科技服务业
权重	邻接	地理	经济	邻接	地理	经济	邻接	地理	经济
模型	sar	sdm	sar	sar	sar	sar	sdm	sar	sar
空间效应
$α$	0.545^*** (5.52)	0.0965^*** (3.63)	0.220^*** (3.35)	-0.0708 (-0.70)	0.05 (0.78)	0.0189 (0.56)	0.412^*** (4.79)	0.0591^*** (2.71)	0.141^*** (2.43)
N	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117	117
R²	0.865	0.228	0.894	0.976	0.972	0.978	0.953	0.977	0.984

Tab. 5

Tab.6

Fig. 3

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城市	相对专业化指数			2012年相对专业化程度高的行业
城市	2003年		2012年	2003-2012年
北京	0.638	0.504	-0.134	商务服务业(1.21)
天津	0.280	0.268	-0.012	交通运输业(1.40)
石家庄	0.464	0.517	0.053	金融服务业(1.71)、交通运输业(1.56)
唐山	0.661	0.645	-0.016	金融服务业(2.04)、交通运输业(1.63)
秦皇岛	0.729	0.762	0.033	交通运输业(2.28)、金融服务业(1.52)
邯郸	0.534	0.515	-0.019	金融服务业(1.77)、交通运输业(1.56)
邢台	0.561	0.514	-0.047	金融服务业(2.51)
保定	0.425	0.514	0.090	科技服务业(1.97)、金融服务业(1.49)
张家口	0.464	0.340	-0.124	金融服务业(1.73)、交通运输业(1.39)
承德	0.513	0.568	0.055	金融服务业(2.47)
沧州	0.603	0.607	0.004	金融服务业(2.45)、交通运输业(1.26)
廊坊	0.385	0.488	0.103	科技服务业(1.78)、金融服务业(1.50)
衡水	0.581	0.603	0.022	金融服务业(2.40)、交通运输业(1.27)

北京—其他城市	2003年	2012年	2003-2012年	天津—其他城市	2003年	2012年	2003-2012年
北京—秦皇岛	0.931	0.897	-0.034	天津—秦皇岛	0.464	0.546	0.082
北京—唐山	0.861	0.777	-0.085	天津—邢台	0.541	0.524	-0.016
北京—沧州	0.800	0.746	-0.054	天津—承德	0.341	0.508	0.167
北京—衡水	0.779	0.731	-0.048	天津—衡水	0.462	0.479	0.017
北京—承德	0.707	0.710	0.002	天津—沧州	0.476	0.475	-0.001
北京—邯郸	0.742	0.655	-0.087	天津—保定	0.430	0.473	0.043
北京—石家庄	0.662	0.637	-0.025	天津—唐山	0.400	0.432	0.032
北京—邢台	0.749	0.604	-0.145	天津—廊坊	0.342	0.423	0.081
北京—保定	0.564	0.575	0.011	天津—张家口	0.325	0.385	0.060
北京—廊坊	0.582	0.540	-0.042	天津—北京	0.467	0.367	-0.100
北京—张家口	0.676	0.469	-0.207	天津—邯郸	0.278	0.334	0.055
北京—天津	0.467	0.367	-0.100	天津—石家庄	0.200	0.286	0.085

	变量	符号	定义
被解释变量	生产性服务业行业发展水平	ps_i	i市t-1年生产性服务业行业就业人数的自然对数值
控制变量	生产性服务业行业滞后项	ps_i_,_t_-1	i市t-1年生产性服务业行业就业人数的自然对数值
	制造业水平	indu_it	i市t年制造业就业人数的自然对数值
	信息化水平	info_it	i市t年信息化发展指数
	劳动力工资水平	wage_it	i市t年职工平均工资的自然对数值
	教育水平	edu_it	i市t年中学和高等学校在校学生数的自然对数值

行业	权重矩阵	模型	R²	LL	AIC	最优	行业	权重矩阵	模型	R²	LL	AIC	最优
交通运输业	邻接空间	sar	0.96	228.8	-437.5	sem	房地产服务业	邻接空间	sar	0.87	133.7	-247.4	sar
		sdm	0.34	235.6	-437.2				sdm	0.86	136.4	-238.9
		sem	0.82	244.5	-471.1				sem	0.28	133	-248
	地理距离	sar	0.94	229	-438.1	sem		地理距离	sar	0.14	134.8	-249.6	sdm
		sdm	0	240.6	-447.3				sdm	0.23		143.2		-252.4
		sem	0.82	244.6	-471.2		sem		0.25		132.6	-247.1
	经济距离	sar	0.97	228.4	-436.8	sem	经济距离	sar	0.89	130.2	-240.5	sar
		sdm	0.12	238.1	-442.2			sdm	0.2		138.5		-243
		sem	0.82	244.3	-470.6			sem	0.27		126.7		-235.4
信息服务业	邻接空间	sar	0.79	158.4	-296.8	sem	商务服务业	邻接空间	sar	0.98	132.8	-245.7	sar
		sdm	0.81	162.3	-290.6				sdm	0.9	139.6	-245.2
		sem	0.6	176.7	-335.3				sem	0.62	121.6	-225.1
	地理距离	sar	0.18	158.6	-297.1	sem		地理距离	sar	0.98	132.7	-245.5	sar
		sdm	0.06	162	-290				sdm	0.51		142.2		-250.3
		sem	0.64	172.2	-326.4		sem		0.69		123.7	-229.3
	经济距离	sar	0.83	157.1	-294.1	sem	经济距离	sar	0.97	132.9	-245.7	sar
		sdm	0.05	162	-290.1			sdm	0.66		138.3		-242.6
		sem	0.64	172	-326			sem	0.65		122.6		-227.1
金融服务业	邻接空间	sar	0.95	233	-446	sar	科技服务业	邻接空间	sar	0.99	200.1	-380.1	sdm
		sdm	0.72	242.9	-451.8				sdm	0.95	209.4	-384.9
		sem	0.25	222.3	-426.5				sem	0.45	178.1	-338.2
	地理距离	sar	0.94	233	-446	sar		地理距离	sar	0.98	201.4	-382.8	sar
		sdm	0.02	247.4	-460.8				sdm	0.86		205		-376
		sem	0.34	221.8	-425.6		sem		0.35		179.3	-340.5
	经济距离	sar	0.94	234.3	-448.7	sdm	经济距离	sar	0.98	199.9	-379.8	sar
		sdm	0.9	244.5	-455			sdm	0.86		204.8		-375.7
		sem	0.3	223.2	-428.5			sem	0.35		176.9		-335.8

阀值 (km)	房地产服务业			科技服务业
阀值 (km)	溢出系数		t	溢出系数	t
50	0.699^***	(5.45)		1.044^***	(6.85)
100	0.550^***	(4.03)		0.589^**	(2.17)
150	0.562^***	(5.57)		0.591^***	(5.17)
200	0.365^***	(3.53)		0.257^**	(2.54)
250	0.363^***	(3.37)		0.268^**	(2.54)
300	0.387^***	(3.57)		0.272^**	(2.53)
350	0.402^***	(3.70)		0.279^***	(2.58)
400	0.404^***	(3.69)		0.277^**	(2.55)
450	0.408^***	(3.74)		0.275^**	(2.52)

Characteristics and spillover effects of space division of producer service in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region: Based on spatial panel model

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