Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 461-475.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503009

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

LUCC simulation based on the cellular automata simulation: A case study of Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone

Jun YANG1,2(), Peng XIE1, Jianchao XI2(), Quansheng GE2, Xueming LI1, Zhandong MA1   

  1. 1. Liaoning Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Geomatics, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2014-06-10 Revised:2015-01-10 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-06-14
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41471140

Abstract:

China has been experiencing the exceptionally drastic land-use/cover changes (LUCC) in the last decades. Many techniques focused on the simulation of the single type of land-use change. However, simulating changes between different types of land-use is much more difficult than simulating change for a single type of land-use. The key to simulations based on the Cellular Automata (CA) model is how to define the transition rules. This paper built a localized land-use competition CA model to examine land-use change rules for several land-use candidates under different localized land-use patterns. By this method, the potential transformation amount of each land-use type was calculated and an optimum transition rule was used to balance the amount of land-use changes of complicated types during the simulation period. The total area of each land-use type was predicted by Markov analysis as the global variable during the whole simulation period. This CA-Markov method was adopted to simulate LUCC in Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone in 1998 and 2009, followed by a comparative experiment. The results show that: (1) The established test method is feasible for exploring the interaction between various land-use classes; (2) This model had high simulation precision, and the Kappa coefficients in urban area, agricultural area and undeveloped area were 0.762, 0.634 and 0.678, respectively; (3) The model proposed in this paper shows a symbolic way to studying the conversion among different land-use types, which could be used to improve the interactive relationship of LUCC.

Key words: localized land-use competition, cellular automata, land-use change, simulation, Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone