中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201502005

Abstract

Abstract:

Urban vulnerability refers to the coping capacity necessary to resist disturbances from various internal or external natural factors and human factors, such as available resources, ecological environmental systems, economic and social development, during an urban development process. A city that has an anti-disturbance capacity below a certain threshold level is considered vulnerable. The concept of urban vulnerability comprehensively reflects urban resource vulnerability, eco-environmental vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Research on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China. In this study, using systematic analyses combined with a comprehensive index assessment method, we selected 10 subindexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects (resources, eco-environmental systems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system for the assessment of China's urban vulnerability. In addition, the standard values of measurements were established and used to evaluate overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation among cities at the prefecture level and above in China. This study revealed that China's urban vulnerability demonstrates a "grade-difference" based differentiation and overall vulnerability is moderate. The differences in the extent of China's urban vulnerability were divided into five grades: low vulnerability, relatively low vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, relatively high vulnerability, and high vulnerability. Urban vulnerability has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both "gradient distribution" and "clustered distribution", as demonstrated by the facts that cities in eastern China are significantly less vulnerable than those in the central and western regions and the cities with low vulnerability are distributed in the form of agglomeration, which fits the urban agglomerations in China well. The extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, and the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability. Resource-based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities, and cities with higher functional comprehensiveness have relatively low vulnerability. In addition, a city's economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability; in other words, high-speed economic growth does not necessarily indicate low urban vulnerability. The purpose of this study was to address how to scientifically assess overall urban vulnerability and how to effectively cope with and reduce urban vulnerability. This study provides scientific evidence to enrich our understanding of urban vulnerability and sustainable development and to solve problems such as resource exhaustion, eco-environmental disruption, the transformation of economic growth mechanisms, and a series of other social issues that arise during urbanization and industrialization.

Key words: urban vulnerability, comprehensive measurement, spatial differentiation, sustainable development, China

Chuanglin FANG, Yan WANG. A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(2): 234-247.

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目标层	权重	准则层	权重	指标层	单位	标准值
B1资源脆弱性	0.20	C1资源利用脆弱性指数^①	0.0900	D1万元GDP综合能耗 D2万元GDP水耗 D3万元GDP电耗 D4万元GDP建设用地占用	t标准煤/万元 m³/万元千瓦时/万元 km²/万元	0.4 30 500 7
B1资源脆弱性	0.20	C2资源保障脆弱性指数^②	0.1100	D5水资源保障能力 D6建设用地保障能力	- -	1 1
B2生态环境脆弱性	0.20	C3生态脆弱性指数^③	0.0718	D7建成区绿化覆盖率 D9森林覆盖率 D10干燥度指数^④	% % -	50 27 0.5
B2生态环境脆弱性	0.20	C4环境脆弱性指数^⑤	0.1282	D10万元GDP碳排放量 D11空气质量优良天数比率 D12城市污水集中处理率 D13工业固体废弃物综合利用率 D14生活垃圾无害化处理率	t/万元 % % % %	2.5 100 100 100 100
B3经济脆弱性	0.30	C5经济结构指数^[27-28]	0.0996	D15霍夫曼系数 D16第三产业增加值占GDP比重 D17经济外向度	% % %	1.5 50 0.5
		C6经济效率指数	0.1098	D18投入产出率 D19规模以上工业企业资产负债率^⑥	% -	1 0.6
		C7经济创新指数	0.0906	D20 R&D投入占GDP的比重 D21科技支出占地方财政支出比重	% %	1.75 3
B4社会脆弱性	0.30	C8人类发展指数^[29-30]	0.1209	D22人口自然增长率 D23万人普通中学在校学生数 D24万人拥有医生数 D25人均住房面积 D26人均GDP	‰ 人人 m² 万美元	8 500 30 30 0.55
		C9基础设施脆弱性指数	0.1083	D27百人拥有移动电话数 D28百人拥有国际互联网用户数^⑦ D29建成区供水管道密度 D30建成区排水管道密度 D31人均城市道路面积 D32万人拥有公共电汽车数	部/百人户/百人 km/km² km/km² m² 辆	100 75 15 10 15 40
		C10社会环境脆弱性指数	0.0708	D33城乡差异指数 D34贫困人口比率 D35城镇登记失业率 D36社会保险覆盖率	% % % %	0 5 4 100

城市脆弱性分级	一级	二级	三级	四级	五级
城市脆弱性分级	低脆弱度	较低脆弱度	中脆弱度	较强脆弱度	强脆弱度
脆弱性指数UVI	<0.47	0.48~0.52	0.53~0.57	0.58~0.62	>0.63

区域	资源利用脆弱性指数	资源保障脆弱性指数	生态保护脆弱性指数	环境保护脆弱性指数	经济结构指数	经济效率指数	经济创新指数	人类发展指数	社会环境脆弱性指数	基础设施脆弱性指数
东部	0.0798	0.0338	0.0202	0.0144	0.0307	0.0653	0.0490	0.0339	0.0368	0.0388
中部	0.1256	0.0348	0.0221	0.0215	0.0440	0.0734	0.0619	0.0349	0.0379	0.0501
西部	0.1586	0.0409	0.0281	0.0340	0.0452	0.0792	0.0697	0.0383	0.0490	0.0571

A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China

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