Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (12): 1739-1752.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412001
• Orginal Article • Next Articles
Guangdong LI(), Chuanglin FANG(
)
Received:
2013-10-12
Revised:
2014-05-30
Online:
2014-12-25
Published:
2015-01-24
Supported by:
Guangdong LI, Chuanglin FANG. Quantitative measure and influencing mechanism of land intensive use in China at the county level[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(12): 1739-1752.
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Tab. 1
Timetable for regional preferential policies of China, 1979-2010"
批准 年份 | 类型与数量 | 区域 | 批准 年份 | 类型与数量 | 区域 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1979 | 3 SEZ | 深圳、珠海、汕头 | 1999 | 1WDS | 西部地区 |
1980 | 1 SEZ | 厦门 | 2000 | 11 ETDZ | 合肥、郑州、成都、长沙、西安、昆明、贵阳、石河子、南昌、西宁、呼和浩特 |
1984 | 14 COC; 10 ETDZ | 天津、上海、大连、秦皇岛、烟台、青岛、连云港、南通、宁波、温州、福州、广州、湛江、北海;大连、秦皇岛、烟台、青岛、宁波、湛江、天津、连云港、南通、广州 | 2001 | 4 ETDZ | 南宁、太原、银川、拉萨 |
1985 | 1 ETDZ; 3 COEZ | 福州;长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、闽东南地区、环渤海地区 | 2002 | 2 ETDZ | 兰州、南京 |
1986 | 2 ETDZ | 上海 (闵行)、上海 (虹桥) | 2003 | 1 RNEC | 东北地区老工业基地 |
1988 | OCB; 1 SEZ; 1 ETDZ | 沿海经济带;海南;上海 (漕河泾) | 2004 | 1RCCP | 中部地区 |
1989 | 1 ETDZ | 厦门 (海沧) | 2005 | 1NSRTD | 浦东新区 |
1990 | 1 PD; 1 ETDZ | 浦东新区、上海 (金桥) | 2006 | 1ELD;1BH;1 NSRTD | 东部地区;滨海新区 |
1992 | 13 BA; 10 MC;13BECZ;AC; 5 ETDZ | 黑河、绥芬河、珲春、满洲里、二连浩特、伊宁、塔城、博乐、瑞丽、畹町、河口、凭祥、东兴;温州、昆山、营口、威海、福清 (福清融侨)、海南 (洋浦) | 2007 | 4 NSRTD | 重庆市、成都市;武汉城市圈、长株潭城市群 |
1993 | 12 ETDZ; 1 ETDZ | 东山、沈阳、杭州、萧山、广州(南沙)、惠州 (大亚湾)、武汉、芜湖、长春、哈尔滨、重庆、宁波 (大榭) | 2009 | 2 ETDZ;1 NSRTD | 廊坊、扬州;深圳市 |
1994 | 2 ETDZ; 1 ETDZ | 北京、乌鲁木齐、苏州 (工业园) | 2010 | 1 SEZ 1LJ 1 NSRTD 32 ETDZ | 喀什;重庆;沈阳;锦州、大连(长兴岛)、吉林、宾西、海林、日照、潍坊、东营、马鞍山、安庆、徐州、镇江、绍兴、嘉兴、湖州、漳州、泉州、增城、襄樊、黄石、岳阳、常德、井冈山、赣州、九江、金昌、天水、曲靖、德阳、广安、遵义、万州、陕西省航天、陕西省航空、临沂 |
Tab. 2
Preliminary analysis of influencing factors for LIU in China at the county level"
要素集 | 具体因素 | 符号与单位 | 变量 (或代理变量) | 预期影 响方向 |
---|---|---|---|---|
被解释 变量 | 空间集约利用度 | LIU | 县域空间集约利用度指数 (由地均GDP、地均固定资产投资额和人口密度综合计算得到) | |
经济社 会发展 | 经济发展水平 | LNGDP | 人均地区生产总值 | + |
人口增长量 | LNPOP | 人均地方财政预算支出 | + | |
工业化水平 | IND | 第二产业增加值占国民生产总值的比重 | + | |
城市化水平 | URBAN | 非农人口占总人口的比重 | + | |
自然环 境本底 | 高程 | LNELV | 平均高程 | - |
坡度 | LNSLOPE | 平均坡度 | - | |
降水 | LNRAI | 年均降水 | + | |
气温 | LNTEM | 年均气温 | ? | |
水资源利用 | LNWATER | 全社会水资源利用总量 | + | |
区位交 通地理 | 距一级海港距离 | LNDIST_PORT1 | 到最近的一级海港距离 | - |
距二级海港距离 | LNDIST_PORT2 | 到最近的二级海港距离 | - | |
距地级城市距离 | LNDIST_CITY | 到最近的地级城市距离 | - | |
高等级道路密度 | LNTRAN_DENS | 铁路、高速公路和国道密度(线路长度/面积) | + | |
区域虚拟变量 | REG | 东、中和西部分别设定为3,2和1 | + | |
市县虚拟变量 | CITY_COUNTY | 市和县分别设定为1和0 | + | |
宏观战 略政策 | 国家战略与宏观区域政策 | POLICY | 是否是国家战略性政策瞄准区 | + |
国家级经济技术开发区 | 是否设置国家级经济技术开发区 | + | ||
地位与等级 | 在全国城镇体系中的地位,在全国主体功能区中的功能定位 | + | ||
历史基础 | 期初集约利用水平 | LIU_A0 | 基期年1992年空间集约利用度 | + |
Tab. 3
Quantitative analysis results of influencing factors for LIU in China at the county level"
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | SAR 时空固定 (ML) | SAR 时间固定 (ML) | SEM 时空固定 (ML) | SEM 时间固定 (ML) | |
α | -0.001493*** | ||||
(-2.6120) | |||||
LNGDP | 0.000138*** | 0.000453*** | 0.000459*** | ||
(2.1139) | (7.5172) | (7.5232) | |||
LNPOP | -0.000148 | -0.000179 | -0.000165 | ||
(-0.9617) | (-1.3779) | (-1.2498) | |||
IND | 0.001056*** | 0.002470*** | 0.001763*** | ||
(3.2009) | (8.8279) | (3.4884) | |||
URBAN | 0.002233*** | 0.005983*** | 0.002536*** | ||
(7.4161) | (3.5428) | (9.3160) | |||
POLICY | 0.000251*** | 0.000551*** | 0.000561*** | ||
(8.5146) | (8.7210) | (8.7705) | |||
LNELV | -0.000167*** | -0.000144*** | -0.000168*** | ||
(-4.7297) | (-4.0509) | (-4.6797) | |||
LNSLOPE | -0.000062*** | -0.000059** | -0.000063*** | ||
(-2.6428) | (-2.5075) | (-2.6210) | |||
LNRAI | 0.000131 | 0.000127 | 0.000132 | ||
(1.6255) | (1.4923) | (1.5947) | |||
LNTEM | 0.000056 | 0.000052** | 0.000056 | ||
(1.5794) | (2.0475) | (1.5465) | |||
LNWATER | 0.000005*** | 0.000005*** | 0.000005*** | ||
(5.9565) | (16.2101) | (15.2856) | |||
LNDIST_PORT1 | -0.000101** | -0.000093*** | -0.000101* | ||
(-1.9987) | (-2.7832) | (-1.9835) | |||
LNDIST_PORT2 | -0.000065** | -0.000060*** | -0.000065* | ||
(-1.5784) | (-2.1576) | (-1.5756) | |||
LNDIST_CITY | -0.000106*** | -0.000095** | -0.000105* | ||
(-1.7944) | (-2.1448) | (-1.7667) | |||
LNTRAN_DENS | 0.000076*** | 0.000419*** | 0.000075*** | ||
(4.1285) | (6.5455) | (4.1050) | |||
REG | 0.000171* | 0.000156*** | 0.000172** | ||
(2.5522) | (2.3459) | (2.5190) | |||
CITY_COUNTY | 0.000682*** | 0.000674*** | 0.000681*** | ||
(5.5233) | (5.4681) | (5.4984) | |||
LIU_A0 | 1.002834*** | 0.760664*** | 1.004324*** | 0.760664*** | 1.002239*** |
(758.0175) | (191.7858) | (770.4556) | (191.7857) | (762.4691) | |
ρ | 0.006915*** | 0.006917*** | |||
(5.7392) | (5.7393) | ||||
γ | 0.021971*** | 0.025973*** | |||
(15.1074) | (16.1554) | ||||
Rbar2 | 0.9537 | 0.9584 | 0.9534 | 0.9584 | 0.9536 |
σ2 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 |
LM lag | 3736.5680*** | ||||
LM err | 2200.3740*** | ||||
R-LM lag | 1755.2066*** | ||||
R-LM err | 219.0127*** | ||||
Durbin-Watson | 2.0005 | ||||
Log-likelihood | 96323 | 99113 | 96300 | 99114 | 96272 |
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