中国省际人口空间格局演化的分析方法与实证

doi:10.11821/dlxb201410007

Abstract

Abstract:

China has been experiencing unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China's urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbanization level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the natural growth rate of China's population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, improvement in education quality, and modern social consciousness. As a result, Chinese government has loosened its "one-child policy" gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have a second child if either of them is from a one-child family. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution is critical for a variety of key policy-making processes in China, such as industrial development, ecological conservation, industrial upgrading and transfer, and environmental protection. In this paper, a top-down method was developed to project the spatial distribution of China's future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the population migration between provinces from 2010 to 2050. The results suggested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population is unlikely to change significantly over the next four decades. Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu will remain the top 4 provinces in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet continue to have the lowest density of population. China's population is projected to continue to concentrate in eastern coastal provinces. Population densities of Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang will peak in 2030, while that of Guangdong will keep increasing until 2035. Due to the large amount of moving-out labors and gradually declining fertility rates, population densities for Central and Northeast China will decrease from 292 persons per km² in 2010 to 253 persons per km² in 2050, exhibiting a downward trend. The majority of the western provinces, including Shaanxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Tibet, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia are likely to remain sparsely populated, with an averaged population density no more than 100 persons per km².

Key words: China, inter-province, population, migration, spatial pattern

Yu DENG, Shenghe LIU, Jianming CAI, Xi LU. Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population and empirical study[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(10): 1473-1486.

Figures/Tables 8

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	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050
总人口 (万人)	133972.4	136974.3	138779.2	139525.6	139307.6	138158.8	136090.6	133176.8	129560.4
城镇人口 (万人)	66919.2	76157.9	84636.3	91180.4	95764.9	98444.6	99858.1	100409.0	100161.2
城镇化率	0.49	0.55	0.61	0.65	0.69	0.71	0.73	0.75	0.77

年份	空间单元	空间单元 (百万)
		总计	城镇			农村
		总计	小计	省内	省际	小计	省内	省际
2010	城镇	212.25	83.85	70.39	13.46	128.4	75.25	53.15
2000	城镇	98.12	43.39	37.93	5.46	54.74	35.44	19.30
净流动人口^a	城镇	114.13	40.47	32.46	8.01	73.66	39.81	33.85

省份	总人口 (2000)	自然增长率 (2000-2010)	预测人口 (2010)	六普人口 (2010)	估测流动人口 (2000-2010)	流动人口 (2000-2010)	估测^b 误差(%)
北京	13.82	1.81	14.07	19.61	+5.54	+4.40	5.83
天津	10.01	1.80	10.19	12.94	+2.75	+2.07	5.27
河北	67.44	5.99	71.48	71.85	+0.37	-1.81^a	3.03
山西	32.97	5.90	34.91	35.71	+0.80	-0.51^a	3.67
内蒙古	23.76	4.03	24.72	24.71	-0.01	+0.33^a	1.40
辽宁	42.38	1.11	42.85	43.75	+0.90	+0.09	1.85
吉林	27.28	2.33	27.91	27.46	-0.45	-0.62	0.60
黑龙江	36.89	2.35	37.76	38.31	+0.55	-1.26^a	4.73
上海	16.74	1.01	16.91	23.02	+6.11	+5.73	1.63
江苏	74.38	2.34	76.12	78.66	+2.54	+3.50	1.22
浙江	46.77	4.44	48.85	54.43	+5.58	+7.76	4.01
安徽	59.86	6.32	63.64	59.50	-4.14	-4.81	1.12
福建	34.71	6.05	36.81	36.89	+0.09	+1.31	3.32
江西	41.40	8.08	44.74	44.57	-0.18	-1.76	3.55
山东	90.79	5.27	95.57	95.79	+0.22	-0.91^a	1.18
河南	92.56	5.42	97.58	94.02	-3.56	-5.44	2.00
湖北	60.28	2.93	62.05	57.24	-4.81	-2.68	3.72
湖南	64.40	5.35	67.84	65.68	-2.16	-2.55	0.59
广东	86.42	7.65	93.03	104.30	+11.27	+5.98	5.07
广西	44.89	7.98	48.47	46.03	-2.45	-1.33	2.43
海南	7.87	9.07	8.58	8.67	+0.09	+0.05	0.43
重庆	30.90	3.21	31.89	28.85	-3.05	-1.96	3.77
四川	83.29	3.03	85.81	80.42	-5.39	-1.38	5.00
贵州	35.25	8.23	38.15	34.75	-3.40	-2.10	3.76
云南	42.88	8.10	46.35	45.97	-0.39	-1.07	1.48
西藏	2.62	11.17	2.91	3.00	+0.09	+0.02	2.26
陕西	36.05	4.07	37.52	37.33	-0.19	-0.61	1.12
甘肃	25.62	6.38	27.26	25.58	-1.68	-0.80	3.43
青海	5.18	9.76	5.69	5.63	-0.06	+0.05^a	1.88
宁夏	5.62	10.52	6.21	6.30	+0.09	+0.04	0.78
新疆	19.25	10.99	21.37	21.81	+0.45	+0.24	0.95

年份	总人口	城镇人口	城镇化率	城镇人口增长量	农村人口城镇化数量			省际流动人口增长量
年份	总人口	城镇人口	城镇化率	城镇人口增长量	省际		省内	合计
2000	1259.95	456.35	0.36	-	-	-	-	-
2010	1339.72	669.19	0.50	212.84	34.23	40.26	74.49	46.07
2015	1369.74	761.58	0.56	92.39	12.74	14.98	27.72	17.34
2020	1387.79	846.36	0.61	84.78	11.69	13.75	25.42	15.91
2025	1395.26	911.80	0.65	65.44	6.01	7.07	13.08	8.19
2030	1393.08	957.65	0.69	45.85	2.11	2.48	4.59	2.87
2035	1381.59	984.45	0.71	26.80	0.00	1.61	1.61	0.00
2040	1360.91	998.58	0.73	14.14	0.00	0.57	0.57	0.00
2045	1331.77	1004.09	0.75	5.51	0.00	0.11	0.11	0.00
2050	1295.60	1001.61	0.77	-2.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

区域类型		划分标准			新增累积流动人口比重(%)	新增累积自然增长人口比重(%)	省份
大类	亚类				A	B	C
人口快速变化区	净迁入主导型	a > 10	b > 5%	c>>1	99	18	北京、天津、江苏、上海、浙江、广东
	净迁出主导型		b < -5%	c<<-1	-75	14	河南、安徽、重庆、湖北
	自然增长主导型		b≈0%	\|c\|≈0	-1	6	辽宁、山东
人口低速变化区	净迁入型	5<a<10	0<b<5%	0<c<1	1	5	福建、海南
人口低速变化区	净迁出型	5<a<10	-5%<b<0	-1<c<0	-18	31	河北、山西、吉林、黑龙江、湖南、江西、广西、四川、陕西
人口平稳区		a < 5	0<b<5%	\|c\|≈0	-6	26	贵州、云南、宁夏、甘肃、内蒙古、新疆、青海、西藏

Spatial pattern and its evolution of Chinese provincial population and empirical study

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