近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素

doi:10.11821/dlxb201407013

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the daily minimum temperature data of 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding areas, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surge and its possible influencing factors in Inner Mongolia during 1960-2012, based on piecewise regression model, Sen+Mann-Kendall model, and correlation analysis. The results show that, (1) The occurrence frequency of single-station cold surge presented a decreasing trend in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a (-2.4-1.2 times/10a), of which a significant decreasing trend was detected before 1991, being -1.1 times/10a (-3.3-2.5 times/10a), while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a (-4.4-4.2 times/10a) was found after 1991. On the seasonal scale, the trend of spring cold surge was consistent with that of the annual value, and the most obvious change of cold surge also occurred in spring. The frequency of monthly cold surge showed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. (2) Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, and higher in the northern than the central part. The inter-decadal characteristic also detected that high frequency and low frequency regions presented a decreasing trend and an increasing trend, respectively, during 1960-1990, while high frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, regions with high frequency of cold surge were mainly distributed in Tol Gol, Xiao’ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. (3) On annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ, while the difference in driving forces among seasons was detected. Winter cold surge was significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating that cold surge in winter was caused multifactor. Autumn cold surge was mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surge was significantly correlated with CA and APVII.

Key words: cold surge, piecewise regression, Sen+Mann-Kendall, spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors, Inner Mongolia

Xianfeng LIU, Xiufang ZHU, Yaozhong PAN, Shuangshuang LI, Donghai ZHANG, Yanxu LIU. The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7): 1013-1024.

Figures/Tables 6

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因子	AO	NAO	SHI	CA	TPI	APVII	CQ	CW	IZ	IM
全年	-0.41^**	-0.31^*	0.13	0.50^**	0.11	0.47^**	-0.34^*	-0.08	0.22	0.21
秋季	-0.13	0.05	0.15	0.33^*	-0.01	0.23	-0.13	-0.17	0.18	0.35^*
冬季	-0.36^**	-0.40^**	0.32^*	0.45^**	0.37^**	0.48^**	-0.10	-0.32^*	0.29^*	0.06
春季	-0.14	-0.13	0.08	0.38^**	0.08	0.39^**	-0.00	-0.12	0.25	0.13

The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years

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