Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (5): 650-660.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201405008

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The spatio-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ in Southern China from 1960 to 2011

DAI Shengpei1,2, LI Hailiang1,2, LUO Hongxia1,2, ZHAO Yifei3   

  1. 1. Institute of Scientific and Technical Information, CATAS, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Practical Research on Tropical Crops Information Technology in Hainan, Danzhou 571737, Hainan, China;
    3. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2013-10-30 Revised:2013-12-28 Online:2014-05-20 Published:2014-05-20
  • Supported by:
    National Basic Program of China (973 Program), No. 2010CB951502;The Fundamental Research Founds forChinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (CATAS), No.1630012012017;No.1630012013012;No.1630012014020

Abstract: The spatial and temporal variation of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(AAT10) was analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and multiple linear regression interpolation method based on the daily meteorological observation data from 104 meteorological stations in Southern China and surrounding 39 meteorological stations during 1960-2011. The result shows that: (1) From time scale point of view, the climatic trend of AAT10 increased with an average of 7.54oC/10a in Southern China since 1960. The area of AAT10<6000℃decreased from 1960 to 2011, and the area of 6000℃8000℃ increased from 1960 to 2011. (2) From spatial scale point of view, the AAT10 in Southern China was reduced with increasing latitude and increasing altitude. The area of 5000℃8000℃ were the least. The climate trend rate at 99% of the meteorological stations of the AAT10 was greater than zero, suggesting that the AAT10 increased significantly in the central Yunnan province, southern Guangdong province and Hainan Island. (3) Comparison of period I (1960-1989) and period II (1980-2011) with the change of climatic zones indicates that the North Tropical Zone, South Subtropical Zone and Central Subtropical Zone gradually expanded, and North Subtropical Zone and Temperate Zone showed a decreasing trend. The change of climatic zones expanded to high altitude and latitude. (4) The increase of AAT10 is conducive to the production of tropical crops planted, which will increase the planting area suitable for tropical crops, and expand the planting boundaries to high latitude and high altitude.

Key words: spatio-temporal change, multiple linear regression model (MLRM), southern China, active accumulated temperature ≥10℃(AAT10), spatial simulation