Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (3): 291-302.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403001

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Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years

YAO Junqiang1, LIU Zhihui1,2,3, YANG Qing4, LIU Yang1, LI Chengzhi2, HU Wenfeng5   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
    2. Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
    3. International Center for Desert Affairs-Research on Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Lands, Urumqi 830046, China;
    4. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
    5. College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2013-07-10 Revised:2014-01-09 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-03-20
  • Supported by:
    The International S&TCooperation Program of China,No.2010DFA92720-12;The National Key Technology R&D Program of China,No.2012BAC23B01;National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program),No.2010CB951001;TheProgram for Innovative Research Team in University of China,No.IRT1180

Abstract: Basin-scale is of the special significance to the climate change research in arid areas. In this study, data from five typical basins of the arid Central Asia are analyzed to investigate changes in annual temperature during the period of 1881-2011. The nonparametric Mann- Kendall test, wavelet analysis and the correlation analysis are used to identify trend, multiple time scale feature and their possible causes in the annual temperature. The results show that the average annual temperature had an increasing trend in the main basins (except Amu Darya Basin) of the arid Central Asia in the past 130 years. The rising rate is consistent with that of the northern hemisphere, much higher than that of the global average and surrounding region, suggesting that the arid Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change than other regions. Abrupt change point in annual temperature occurred around the year of 1986, and showed significant multi-time scale periodic oscillation, which is mainly due to the physical external force and internal climate-control system. The Central Asian vortexes' activity has a significant effect on annual temperature of the typical basins, followed by the northern annual mode cycle variation and the Tibetan Plateau, while the greenhouse effect caused by CO2 gas emissions in the arid Central Asia can not be ignored. Temperatures show an aperiodic cycle which is related to the BC, PDO and TBO, and we can confirm that temperature in the arid Central Asia is closely related to the atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and solar activity.

Key words: multi-time scale, temperature variability, Central Asian vortexes activity, CO2 emissions, Central Asia, wavelet analysis