Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2013, Vol. 68 ›› Issue (9): 1225-1239.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201309006

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Optimized decision-making of water resources supply and demand system in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration based on the analog simulation

XIONG Ying, LI Jingzhi, JIANG Dingling   

  1. Department of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
  • Received:2013-04-16 Revised:2013-05-19 Online:2013-09-05 Published:2013-11-05
  • Supported by:
    Foundation Humanity and Social Research Project of Education Ministry to Young Scholars, No.11YJCZH201; Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.10JJ5017; Social Science Foundation of Hunan Province, No.12JD01; No.2010JD19; No.09YBA003; Wetland Project of WWF

Abstract: Using the theory and method of system analysis, a water resources supply and demand system dynamic model was built to simulate the changing trends of the balance of water resources supply and demand in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from 2012 to 2030 under four scenarios (traditional development model, economic development model, water saving model and concerted development model). The simulation result suggested that: (1) the problem of water resources supply and demand is becoming increasingly conspicuous with growing population and rapidly developing economy; (2) by 2030, the water resources demand will be reaching a total of 105.1×108 m3, and the supply of water resources is 5.4 × 108 m3 over the demand, while water resources supply be basically meeting the growing demands of economic and social development, and generated great comprehensive benefits under concerted development model. So the concerted development model will be the best solution to develop and use water resources in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration; (3) in order to realize the expectation aim, we should accelerate the construction of water conservancy projects, strengthen the management on water conservation, optimize economic structure, enhance our awareness of protection of water resources, moreover quicken the recycling of waste water and environmental improvement. In addition, raising the utilization ratio and the support capabilities of water resources are also important to the balance of water resources supply and demand.

Key words: optimization decision-making, system dynamics, water resources supply and demand system, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration, analog simulation