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      Climate and Hydrology
    • Climate and Hydrology
      YIN Mijia, YIN Yunhe, DENG Haoyu, WU Shaohong, ZHENG Du
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      Climate change significantly affects the arid/humid processes and patterns in China, directly impacting management decisions related to adaptive agriculture and water resources management, desertification control, and spatial ecological restoration. However, current studies primarily focus on changes in arid/humid climate variables, lacking quantitative characterization of the dynamic evolution of areal systems and their nonlinear responses. Based on the data of national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020, we systematically quantified the nonlinear response of arid/humid patterns to climate change. The results revealed that 6.98% of eco-geographical arid/humid regions underwent type shifts over the past six decades, with 4.95% transitioning toward wetter conditions. Humid and semi-arid regions expanded significantly while sub-humid and arid regions contracted significantly. In the late 1990s, trends of the humid and sub-humid region shifted. Humid region contraction in northern China was driven primarily by precipitation decline, whereas the Tibetan Plateau responded to increasing potential evapotranspiration. During the same period, the retreat rate of the arid region slowed, linked to intensified aridification in the west part of northern China and a decelerating wetting trend in northwest China, both primarily driven by precipitation trends. Our study reveals the nonlinear response of the arid/humid patterns under climate change, providing a scientific basis for the improvement of regional climate resilience.

    • Climate and Hydrology
      CHEN Hongguang, MENG Fanhao, SA Chula, LUO Min, LIU Tie, CHI Wenfeng, KUANG Wenhui, BAO Yuhai, SONOMDAGVA Chonokhuu, ENDON Garmayev
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      Drought cascade propagation critically constrains sustainable water resource utilization, yet quantitative characterization of dynamic drought propagation thresholds and their multi-process drivers remains limited. This study integrates meteorological (SPI), hydrological (SRI), and soil moisture drought indices (SSI), run theory, Copula models, and machine learning to analyze spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of drought propagation thresholds in the Mongolian Plateau (1982-2021). The results show that over 30% of the study region exhibited drying trends for SPI (-0.25/10a), SRI (-0.19/10a), and SSI (-0.34/10a), with SPI/SRI showing "high frequency, short duration, low intensity" features versus SSI's "low frequency, long duration, high intensity" pattern. Droughts propagate sequentially as "meteorological drought→ hydrological drought→soil moisture drought", averaging 2 and 9.01 months between stages. The probability of drought cascade propagation showed the triple characteristics of "positive correlation of rank, negative correlation of intensity and attenuation of path". Propagation thresholds are lower in mountainous forests (drought-resistant) but higher in central desert-grassland transition zones (prone to cascading effects), forming a pattern of core vulnerability and edge insensitivity. Notably, 59.58% and 49.20% of areas show rising SPI→SRI and SRI→SSI propagation thresholds, respectively. In addition, precipitation dominated the SPI→SRI propagation (contribution rate 43.56%), soil moisture content (contribution rate 60.14%) became the key bottleneck of SRI→SSI propagation, and NDVI, potential evapotranspiration and temperature synergistically regulated the cascade risk of the marginal transition zone. The results of the study can provide a basis for precise early warning of cascading drought in arid and semi-arid zones, as well as theoretical references to reduce the negative impacts of drought propagation on ecosystems and realize the sustainable development of regional ecology and agriculture and animal husbandry.

    • Climate and Hydrology
      LIN Ziqi, WANG Shuo, XU Jing, SHI Peijun, MA Yaoyao, WANG Yiwen, ZHANG Gangfeng
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      With the rapid global warming and increasing atmospheric pollutant emissions, frequent urban ozone pollution events pose a serious threat to human health. Ozone formation is complexly influenced by multiple factors, including pollutant emissions and meteorological conditions, leading to generally low accuracy in current ozone concentration forecasts. This study constructs an undirected graph based on the spatial relationships among monitoring sites, using observational data from environmental quality monitoring stations, meteorological reanalysis data, and emission data. A spatiotemporal graph convolution model based on GCN-GRU (Graph Convolutional Networks-Gated Recurrent Unit) was developed to simulate the spatiotemporal patterns of ozone concentrations in 24 typical cities across the Yangtze River Delta region. The results demonstrate that: (1) The GCN-GRU model reduces MAE and RMSE by 17.7% and 16.3%, respectively, compared to conventional statistical and machine learning models; (2) In case simulations of high ozone pollution events, the model effectively captures the periodic variations and critical turning points of observed ozone concentrations (r = 0.735, p < 0.05), and accurately reflects spatial distribution characteristics; (3) Simulated ozone concentrations from 2015 to 2023 show a fluctuating upward trend, with an average annual increase of +0.56 μg m-³ a⁻¹ (p < 0.05), which is largely consistent with the observed trends. Both simulated and observed data reveal increasing trends in inland areas and decreasing trends in coastal regions. This research provides a robust scientific basis for precise ozone concentrations prediction and pollution control policy formulation in the Yangtze River Delta.

    • Climate and Hydrology
      CHANG Jiale, SHI Hao, LI Fanghao, LIU Zhenghong, FAN Haoming
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      The Horqin Sandy Land is one of the four major sandy lands in China, and is located in the western part of the Northeast China Plain and the southeastern part of Inner Mongolia. The research on the spatio-temporal variation patterns and driving factors of land desertification is an important foundation for scientificly carrying out the sand prevention and control work. In this study, soil desertification indicators were retrieved from Landsat remote sensing imagery, and the soil wind erosion intensity was modeled using data including meteorological conditions, NDVI, DEM and soil texture. The spatio-temporal distribution pattern of soil desertification and its response to soil wind erosion in the Horqin Sandy Land from 1991 to 2020 were revealed by using methods such as slope trend analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed that: (1) From 1991 to 2020, the land desertification in the study area exhibited a reversal trend, and the area of the reversal region accounted for 71.27% of the total, whereas the area experiencing intensified desertification accounted for 17.54% and was sporadically distributed. (2) From 1991 to 2020, the changes in land desertification were basically consistent with the changes in soil wind erosion intensity, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. (3) In the regions where wind erosion played a dominant role in the desertification, the area affected by human activities accounted for 66.36%. In the regions where wind erosion weakened and desertification reversed, the positive impact of human activities was significant, accounting for 78.34%; however, in the regions where wind erosion increased and desertification intensified, the contribution of climate change (57.69%) was greater than that of human activities (42.31%), and these two regions were adjacent in distribution, mainly located in Horqin Right Wing Middle Banner in the north, the western part of Tongyu county and Horqin district. This research investigated the spatio-temporal evolution of desertification in the study area over a 30-year period and examined its response to wind erosion intensity. These results provided theoretical basis and scientific guidance for the prevention and control of desertification, and contributed to the continuous restoration and improvement of the ecological environment in the Horqin Sandy Land.

    • Climate and Hydrology
      ZHU Lingling, YANG Chenggang, CHEN Gen, ZENG Ling, GE Yuxuan
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      The Baihetan Reservoir area is the region with the highest sediment yield and transportation intensity in the lower Jinsha River. Multiple tributaries flowing into the reservoir carry high sediment concentrations, and the sediment deposition in the estuary and main stream reservoir areas caused by the inflow of sediment from tributaries has significant impacts on the operation of the reservoir and local aquatic ecosystems. This study focuses on the Heishui River, currently the tributary with the highest sediment concentration in the Jinsha River Basin. Based on complete time-series observations of rainfall, runoff, and sediment across the watershed, the characteristics and main influencing factors of water and sediment transport and their changes in the basin are analyzed in detail. A high-precision distributed erosion and sediment yield model is established, and the simulation of the process of runoff and sediment yield are carried out. The results show that the trend of increasing rainfall runoff in the Heishui River Basin (HRB) is not significant. Due to soil and water conservation projects, the average annual sediment transport during 2001-2020 decreased by approximately 2.14 million tons compared to 1981-2000, representing a 34.5% reduction; Rainfall is the primary driver of sediment yield in the basin. Rainfall amount, spatial distribution, intensity, and duration all affect sediment yield and transport. Heavy rainfall in the middle-lower reaches (Puge to Ningnan section) is more likely to cause high sediment transport at the Ningnan hydrological station. Calculations show that during 2021-2023, the HRB experienced relatively low runoff, with average annual runoff of 1.68 billion m³ and average annual sediment transport of 1.64 million tons. The reduced runoff caused a 65.3% decrease in sediment transport compared to the multi-year average.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      XU Yue, XU Xiangbo, ZHAO Qiran, ZHANG Linxiu
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      Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crop production is essential for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable agricultural development. Using micro-level data from the Fixed Observation Rural Survey (FORS) spanning 1993-2020 and the China Rural Development Survey (CRDS), we calculate the agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) and GHG emission intensity from crop production among farmers based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and life cycle assessment, respectively. A two-way fixed effects model was employed to examine their relationship. The results show that ATFP has a rebound effect on GHG emission intensity under current technological and managerial conditions, with the optimal ATFP level below the sample mean. This suggests that continuous improvements in ATFP may initially reduce but eventually increase emission intensity. These findings remain robust across a series of tests. Moderating effect analysis indicated that higher education levels, per capita income, and labor input significantly strengthened the impact of ATFP on emission intensity. Heterogeneity across nine agricultural zones also indicates consistent rebound effects but with varying turning points. The results suggest that policies should focus on farmer education and training, optimize the agricultural planting structure, and adopt region-specific mitigation strategies to enhance ATFP while avoiding rebound effects in GHG emission intensity.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      WANG Shaojian, PENG Qizhen
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      Urban land use change and industrial land space restructuring are critical drivers of carbon emissions, and understanding their intrinsic mechanisms holds significant theoretical value for territorial spatial governance under carbon neutrality goals. Taking Guangzhou as a case study, this research innovatively integrated POI kernel density analysis and random forest algorithms to construct a high-precision industrial land space identification model (overall classification accuracy: 72%), coupled with support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression (RFR), and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition, to systematically reveal the correlation and driving factors between industrial land space evolution and carbon emissions from 2012 to 2022. The findings indicate that: (1) The built-up area of Guangzhou exhibited significant outward expansion, increasing from 1091.95 km2 to 1370.87 km2, with carbon emissions rising from 67.646 million tons to 84.3112 million tons. (2) The correlation between industrial land space and carbon emissions in Guangzhou presented a "mixed-area dominance—high emissions in industrial, commercial and residential zones—low emissions in public service zones". While the total carbon emissions in industrial zones increased, their intensity declined; both total emissions and intensity rose in commercial and residential zones, whereas public service zones maintained low levels. (3) The RFR model, developed under a "natural-economic-spatial" multidimensional framework integrating remote sensing spectral, socioeconomic, and landscape morphological indicators, achieved optimal fitting accuracy for carbon emissions (R2 = 0.86). (4) Carbon emission driving mechanisms showed significant heterogeneity: industrial zones were dominated by industrial activity intensity and land scale, commercial and residential zones were driven by socioeconomic activities and population density, and public service zones exhibited a "binding effect" with commercial activities. This study provides scientific support for optimizing polycentric urban structures, promoting green industrial agglomeration, and formulating targeted carbon reduction policies.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      QIAN Longxia, LUO Yaoshuai, WANG Hongrui, LIU Changming, ZHAO Yong
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      The characteristics and future evolution trends of carbon emissions in the multi-scale social water cycle are of great significance for achieving low-carbon sustainability in the water cycle. Firstly, a "top-down" method for estimating carbon emissions in the social water cycle is proposed based on the water-energy-carbon relationship, taking a macro to meso-micro perspective. Secondly, a "bottom-up" method for predicting carbon emissions in the social water cycle is proposed based on a deep learning-nonlinear dynamic system coupled model, which considers the micro to meso-macro perspective. Finally, the carbon emissions in the social water cycle at different scales in Gansu province from 2009 to 2022 were estimated, and the projected trends of carbon emissions in the social water cycle at different scales in this province from 2023 to 2035 were predicted and analyzed. It is found that: (1) From 2009 to 2022, the carbon emissions in the social water cycle in Gansu demonstrated a pattern of stable growth followed by fluctuating decline. Most prefecture-level cities exhibit a trend of fluctuating decrease or a tendency towards a stable state in social cycle carbon emissions, and only Jiuquan and Jiayuguan cities show fluctuating growth. The county level social water cycle carbon emissions exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of "low at both ends and high in the middle". (2) The deep learning-nonlinear dynamic system coupled model demonstrates robust and universal predictive capabilities with respect to carbon emissions in the social water cycle, outperforming traditional dynamic system models and grey prediction models in both temporal and spatial domains. (3) Driven by population outflows and the optimization of water use structures, carbon emissions from the social water cycle in Gansu peaked at an early stage, reaching their maximum level in 2012. Furthermore, the peak timing for most prefecture-level cities was predominantly concentrated within the period of 2011-2013.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      LI Yonghua, JIANG Hezhou, YAO Song
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      An uneven match between inter-city economic trade benefits and carbon emission costs creates inequitable shifts in carbon governance responsibilities. Existing carbon responsibility allocation approaches inadequately address carbon inequity patterns from cross-city trade and carbon transfer. This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) as an example. Municipal input-output tables and direct carbon emissions data are analyzed using environmental input-output modeling, Tapio decoupling analysis, random forests, and Shapley values. This quantifies income disparities stemming from carbon inequity relationships. Urban interest characteristics are profiled through a multidimensional "social-economic-ecological-equity-efficiency-sustainability" indicator system. A cooperative game-theoretic model achieves carbon quota allocation across the YRDUA. Key results indicate that: (1) Shanghai functions as the core hub for carbon-intensive product flows. Jiangsu and Anhui exhibit substantial internal carbon transfers, with Jiangsu demonstrating stronger external economic linkages than Anhui. Zhejiang maintains closer carbon-economic ties with Shanghai despite lower internal transfers. (2) High-income cities concentrate around provincial capitals, while low-income cities occupy peripheral regions. Shapley value analysis reveals Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai coalitions securing disproportionate carbon governance benefits. Unregulated competition biases quota allocation toward dominant cities, amplifying regional disparities (the "Matthew effect"). (3) The equity-based carbon quota system balances emission reduction pressures between high- and low-income cities. Complementary cooperation generates enhanced developmental benefits. This approach imposes effective constraints on carbon-intensive cities and advances regional progress toward "dual carbon" goals.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      WANG Lei, WANG Haiyue, FANG Tingting, SONG Chunqiao, LIN Yaoben, DUAN Xuejun
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      With the growing impacts of human activities and global changes on biodiversity, the concept of biodiversity footprint has rapidly emerged as a key tool for evaluating the processes of biodiversity loss and their influencing factors. However, research across different scales often overlaps, and assessment paradigms remain incompatible, making a systematic review and standardization essential endeavors. This paper distinguishes and compares various eco-environmental footprint concepts, systematically reviews the evolution of the biodiversity footprint concept, identifies the driving factors and key assessment indicators of biodiversity loss, and analyzes and compares the research perspectives, indicator selection, and evaluation methods of biodiversity footprint across three spatial scales (global, national, and local) and their corresponding actors. From a global perspective, biodiversity footprint research primarily uses tools such as country-level species-area relationship models, input-output models, and life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze biodiversity loss and the transnational transfer of impacts caused by global commodity production-consumption networks. It also employs shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to predict biodiversity loss under different socioeconomic development scenarios. From a national perspective, research mainly adopts input-output models and land-use change analysis to identify leading industries and economic sectors that threaten biodiversity through domestic construction and production activities. At the local scale, biodiversity footprint research often integrates LCA with ecological methods to assess the localized and cross-regional biodiversity impacts of actors such as enterprises, farmers, individuals, and institutions. This includes impacts from investment allocation, biological resources inputs, production disturbances, and pollution emissions. Finally, based on a literature review, this paper suggests that future research should focus on three interconnected areas: (1) developing a comprehensive and standardized indicator system; (2) constructing integrated theoretical models that enable multi-scale integration and dynamic simulations; and (3) translating research findings into policy guidance to advance the theoretical refinement and practical application of biodiversity footprint assessments.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      WANG Jinwei, LIU Min, JIANG Hongyun, SUN Jie, WANG Qixiang
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      Protected area policies are pivotal not only for conserving and sustainably managing natural resources but also for balancing human-environment interactions to foster sustainable development. Based on the perspective of the geography of public policy, this study develops a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing policy structure, policy instruments, and policy effectiveness. Employing methods such as social network analysis, content analysis, and the PMC index model, the paper examines the evolutionary patterns and underlying logic behind the transformation of China's protected area policies from 1982 to 2021. The results indicate that: (1) The evolution of these policies can be categorized into three distinct stages (initial exploration from 1982 to 1993, system development from 1994 to 2012, and system refinement and deepening from 2013 to 2021). This evolution illustrates a paradigm shift from "quantitative expansion" to "high-quality development". As the stages have progressed, policy content has gradually become more refined, effectively supporting the standardized development of protected areas. (2) Policy types are predominantly normative texts such as notices and guidelines. Furthermore, the issuance of policies on protected areas is primarily carried out independently by various departments, with the majority of policies concentrated within three key agencies: the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Forestry and Grassland Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. The level of cooperation among the policy-issuing departments is relatively low, and there is a clear need to enhance interdepartmental collaboration. (3) The policy instruments encompass three major categories, including supply-side, environment-shaping, and demand-side. However, an imbalance exists in the structure of these instruments, with environment-shaping instruments maintaining long-term dominance. At the same time, the comprehensiveness of internal combinations among various policy instruments has continued to strengthen. The joint application of these tools has evolved through distinct phases, progressing from isolated linkages to structural optimization and eventually to the formation of a networked collaborative framework. (4) Protected area policies generally demonstrate high effectiveness, reflecting sound scientific grounding and systematic design. Among them, comprehensive planning-type and guidance-type policies typically achieve higher PMC Index scores than measure-type policies, which tend to focus on specific aspects. In comparison, measure-type policies still have room for improvement in terms of content, functional design, and incentive mechanisms, which is essential for fully enhancing their overall policy effectiveness.

    • Carbon Emissions and Ecological Protection
      ZHANG Mingdou, DENG Lanfeng, WANG Chuanchao
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      Taking 107 prefecture-level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as research samples, this study empirically examines the coordination and interactive effects of their ecological resilience and eco-efficiency during the period of 2009-2023 by using the coupled coordination model, the spatial autocorrelation model, and the panel vector autoregression model. The results show that: (1) between 2009 and 2023, the urban ecological resilience in the study area had been increasing year by year, from 0.1242 in 2009 to 0.1709 in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 2.31%, and showed a spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north". The urban ecological efficiency demostrated a steady upward trend, rising from 0.1960 in 2009 to 0.5475 in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 7.61%, and a spatial pattern of "downstream region > midstream region > upstream region". (2) The coordination degree between urban ecological resilience and eco-efficiency increased with fluctuation from 0.3818 in 2009 to 0.5329 in 2023, averaging an annual growth rate of 2.41%; and the spatial pattern is characterized by "downstream region > midstream region > upstream region". (3) There is a spatial positive correlation between urban ecological resilience and eco-efficiency coordination degrees, but the intensity of agglomeration presents a decaying trend, which is manifested by the sprouting of emerging agglomerations in the upstream and the contraction of the scope of agglomeration in the downstream, especially in Anhui, where the low-low agglomeration area is drastically shrinking. (4) A dynamic interactive effect exists between urban ecological resilience and eco-efficiency. While the interaction exhibits fluctuations, the net effect is positive. Furthermore, the inertia of each system exerts a stronger influence on its own development than their cross-impact.

    • Geopolitics
    • Geopolitics
      LIU Yungang, LI Shuqin, WANG Fenglong, HUANG Yan, WANG Tao, PENG Fei, LIU Xuanyu, YANG Wencai
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      For an extended period, research on maritime political geography remained scarce under the dominance of terracentrism in political geography. Moreover, the field of maritime political geography has yet to establish a unified research paradigm and make theoretical dialogues between Chinese and Western scholarship. To address these gaps, this study conducts a bibliometric analysis and systematic reading of 369 English-language articles from 14 international journals and 156 Chinese-language articles from CNKI up to May 2025. Based on this, it identifies and synthesizes six core research themes: marine ontology, sea power and geopolitical strategy, territorial disputes and maritime delimitation practices, migration and border control at sea, political ecology and marine environmental protection, and marine governance and spatial planning. Region-focused studies reveal significant divergences among the "three oceans and two seas": the Pacific prioritizes military strategy, the Atlantic emphasizes economic collaboration, the Arctic Ocean highlights techno-political issues, the Mediterranean centers on migration governance, while the South China Sea concentrates on sovereignty disputes. Grounded in the core principles of political geography, this study defines maritime political geography as a subfield of political geography that examines the interaction between political activities (or power relations) and maritime spaces. Its core research objects encompass the spatial patterns of marine political power, alongside political geographical issues concerning marine resource allocation, maritime border delimitation, and geopolitical strategic competition. Drawing on key concepts in political geography such as territoriality, scale, and governmentality, the paper further develops a conceptual framework for analyzing maritime political geographical phenomena and processes, centered on the themes of "resources-delimitation-strategy" and the interactions between politics (power) and maritime ontology. It then outlines the future research directions for maritime political geography in China, including theoretical innovation and disciplinary development, thematic expansion, and the broadening of geographical coverage. The main contribution of this study lies in systematically proposing, for the first time, a research framework and a prospective research agenda for maritime political geography grounded in the foundational insights of political geography. It provides a basis for future scholarly dialogue and expansion in this emerging field, while also enriching the discipline of political geography and enhancing its theoretical explanatory power.

    • Geopolitics
      WANG Pengcheng, LU Rucheng, LIN Shugao, MA Guobin, LI Yiyun
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      Coordinating development and security is a key pathway to promote high-quality development and prevent the major risks in border regions. This study deconstructs the types of border regional functions based on the "development-security" coordinated orientation, taking the Yunnan-Guangxi border region of China as an example. It uses a projection pursuit clustering model to measure the level of border regional functions and employs a series of spatiotemporal combinations and mapping models to explore the transformation process and carry out regional optimization. The results show that: (1) There is a spatiotemporal negative relationship between the development and security functions in border regions, transitioning from strong trade-offs to synergy, and presenting a divergent pattern of higher in the Yunnan section and lower in the Guangxi section, with regional differences stemming from the inter-provincial development imbalance between the two sections. (2) The adaptability of border regional functions shows an upward trend, with the coupling coordination and matching degree of development and security functions gradually strengthening. The adaptability is relatively high in the Yunnan section, with the best performance in border ports and central urban areas. (3) The border regional functions transition from low to high levels and have the ability to converge to an equilibrium level. The transformation convergence speed in the Guangxi section is higher than that in the Yunnan section, but the transformation convergence process has certain spatiotemporal inertia and spatial dependence. (4) Based on the dominant functions, border regions are divided into three types of spaces: strategic heartland, opening-up frontier, and security barrier. Each type of space is supported by maintenance, improvement and restructuring measures, ultimately integrating management to define 8 types of border functional regions and proposing optimization pathways. Therefore, creating stable security functional areas, constructing livable development functional areas, and cultivating green opening-up functional areas are important ways to optimize and achieve the sustainable development patterns in border regions.

    • Geopolitics
      NIU Fuchang, CHEN Xiuhong, HU Zhiding
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      Afghanistan has been historically served as a key arena for the interaction and strategic competition among multiple geo-actors, presenting a typical case for analyzing the two-level game that shapes the geo-setting. In theory, there is a clear lack of perspective and methodology in the interaction between geo-actors, geo-setting, and international/domestic politics. In response, two-level game theory is employed to construct an analytical framework for the changing geo-setting to examine the evolution of Afghanistan's geo-setting from January 19, 2018, to August 15, 2021, focusing on the domestic competition between the Ghani government and the Taliban. The results reveal that: (1) The transformation of Afghanistan's geo-setting is the inevitable outcome of the two-level game between domestic and international geo-actors. The power struggles among key domestic geo-actors form the core mechanism of this game, while international great power competition constitutes its geopolitical framework. Geo-actors utilise the geo-setting elements as mediators and tools for projection and interaction, reshaping both domestic and international geo-setting. (2) The Ghani government and the Taliban represent the central domestic geopolitical actors in Afghanistan. Their fundamental strategic objectives-consolidating political authority and restoring a tribal emirate-drive them to dynamically navigate international and domestic geopolitical networks. These actors reciprocally create strategic traps for each other across varying scales and domains to secure political opportunities and survival spaces. (3) Afghanistan's domestic and international games, along with their respective geo-setting, exhibit clear stagism. Before and after the Doha Agreement, the strategies, forms, and complexity of multi-actor competition diverged significantly, with the geopolitical environment transitioning from "domestic chaos and external pressure" to "domestic collapse and external confrontation". (4) Afghanistan's foreign policy consistently lacked continuity and coherent strategic postures in domestic-international interactions, constrained by fragmented geo-settings, dynamic domestic politics, and the entanglement of multiple geo-actors. The conclusion discusses the applicability of the two-level game model, its research prospects, and implications for China.

    • Geopolitics
      BIAN Hongyan, WU Jianguo, ZHANG Junze, ZHU Zihan, GAO Jie, GONG Mengyu, LIU Yanxu
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      The resilience of the Earth system has been critically undermined, rapidly deviating from the stability of the Holocene. In response to the dual imperative of enhancing Earth system resilience and ensuring human well-being, conceptual frameworks such as Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and Safe and Just Operating Spaces (SJOS) have been proposed. While PBs and global-scale SJOS frameworks have advanced significantly, spatial governance still lacks scale-matched and context-adaptive boundaries for environmental safety and social justice. Moreover, a limited understanding of downscaling methods, cross-scale linkages, and complex interactions poses major challenges for effective governance across local-to-global scales. In this study, we review methods for defining PBs and SJOS, focusing on thresholds, states, and scaling approaches. A nested dynamic system of spatial hierarchies is constructed to reveal multi-scale structures spanning continental country, regional, urban, and local landscape levels. Top-down constraints, bottom-up accumulations, and cascading effects driven by material cycles, energy flows, and trade are examined, along with potential scenarios involving trade-offs and synergies among different processes. By applying and integrating scaling approaches such as historical responsibility, carrying capacity, and landscape simulation, China aims to establish scientifically grounded, equitable, and scale-compatible regional governance in the future. Moving forward, efforts will focus on addressing cross-scale interactions to mitigate adverse cascades and irreversible risks. In alignment with China's science-poicy-practice practices, future initiatives will integrate multiple downscaling methods to allocate scale-specific responsibilities and project sustainable scenarios. These strategies will support the realization of the "Beautiful China" initiative and operation within safe and just boundaries.